Friday, September 9, 2016

2016 Santa Rosa Marathon Analysis

It seems that the Santa Rosa Marathon has had it's fair share of missteps in the last 4 years. Three out of the last four years, to be specific. If you want to read more about the latest mess and previous years' issues, this Runners World article goes through them in detail.

It seems that even the BAA might have had enough because they no longer list the race as a "Top Feeder" and it was there when I pulled the list down a couple months ago.

This year, a large number of faster runners were led off course and ended up tacking on up to a mile extra (and from what I understand, there was also another group that maybe have been led off course but ended up short). It seems as though the race management didn't employ enough course marshalls at key turns.

Unfortunately and not unsurprisingly, the BAA is not going to accept adjusted times. For the number of potential BQs that were affected, it's small in the grand scheme of the BAA (so, the tens of thousands of BQs in the world). Without definitive data on how much to credit, it just gets messy. Lots of folks could claim they were part of this mistake even though they weren't. So it makes sense to me that they aren't going to accept it. It does suck though, for those folks who were using this race as their last chance to qualify (side note: this is why I am running CIM this year - I'm not even going to wait until Boston to try because you never know what weather you get and I want as many chances as possible to make it in).

Onto the numbers.

AG Group2016 Qualifiers2016 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-345722525.33%4719923.62%
F35-39229423.40%189319.35%
F40-44208124.69%96913.04%
F45-49258728.74%168319.28%
F50-54126219.35%126518.46%
F55-5993525.71%54112.20%
F60-6461346.15%21315.38%
F65-692728.57%2366.67%
F70-74000.00%010.00%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-345121224.06%2315914.47%
M35-391610615.09%98610.47%
M40-442612520.80%149814.29%
M45-493112724.41%2810426.92%
M50-542811624.14%2610624.53%
M55-59218325.30%166823.53%
M60-64103727.03%114524.44%
M65-6941921.05%83125.81%
M70-741520.00%1616.67%
M75-79020.00%030.00%
M80+11100.00%000.00%
Totals342143723.80%247127319.40%

So, we see a good sized drop here: 27.78% decrease.

The number of finishers are also down so it isn't all attributed to the off-course error. The rate is down about 4.4% - that may be a good representation of how many were affected by the error as far as not making the standard (because those well ahead of the standard were probably still affected but still BQ'd).

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute216.14%166.48%
1-2 minutes349.94%135.26%
2-3 minutes349.94%3112.55%
3-4 minutes236.73%176.88%
4-5 minutes236.73%176.88%
5-10 minutes7822.81%5923.89%
10-20 minutes7923.10%6024.29%
20> minutes5014.62%3413.77%
Totals342247

This race both years has a big Squeaker Pack. 39.74% last year and 38.06% this year. Sort of lends credence to the idea that this is a last ditch effort for people on the border of qualifying. I wonder if Erie and Lehigh will show similar numbers.

Looks like we'll be seeing the gap growing as far as not enough qualifiers in the analysis to match up with the sub 2:28 margin group of the 2016 qualification year.

Overall Totals


AG Group2016 Qualifiers20156 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3452074139112.58%43754025510.87%
F35-3923651656114.28%21231680512.63%
F40-4423521576114.92%19951548612.88%
F45-4924011150020.88%21021197217.56%
F50-541501758519.79%1414811217.43%
F55-59793381220.80%694391417.73%
F60-64350157222.26%354169620.87%
F65-6910249420.65%11453921.15%
F70-742113715.33%2016112.42%
F75-7953016.67%1224.55%
F80+1425.00%41040.00%
M18-3447013704212.69%37223518010.58%
M35-3923251952811.91%19361889010.25%
M40-4426582122612.52%22062008510.98%
M45-4932031797517.82%26711797914.86%
M50-5424981428717.48%20811429414.56%
M55-591641871318.83%1441908815.86%
M60-64997463121.53%935478219.55%
M65-69446192723.14%424206020.58%
M70-7413863921.60%10764116.69%
M75-792517114.62%3018516.22%
M80+73917.95%104323.26%
Totals3373722502514.99%2875922219912.94%

There is a 13.67% decrease in the rate of qualification, and a 14.76% decrease in the number of qualifiers.

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute18765.56%16225.64%
1-2 minutes18585.51%16215.64%
2-3 minutes18745.55%15675.45%
3-4 minutes16995.04%14425.01%
4-5 minutes15974.73%13324.63%
5-10 minutes707820.98%615121.39%
10-20 minutes946528.06%798727.77%
20> minutes829024.57%703724.47%
Totals3373728759

The Squeaker Pack is marginally is nearly identical: 26.39% vs 26.37%

I ran the query to get the number of runners who qualified with 148 seconds or better for the 2016 qualification year and got: 29087

Which is still greater than the total number of qualifiers in the 2017 qualification year dataset, and means that the prediction is still no cut off.

This makes the gap now at 328. It was 302 at the last update.

Big Cottonwood is tomorrow. Erie and Via/Lehigh Valley are Sunday.

Any readers participating in one of these last-minute BQ races?





3 comments:

  1. Did a quick look at Big cottonwood has 387 qualifiers this year versus 317 for last year. Weather was perfect. Last chance BQ.2 grand rapids, Mi got 51 qualifiers versus 66 last year. Still got no results from last chance BQ chicagoland as their weather like grand rapids was horrible. Weather for Erie looks OK, if not perfect for tomorrow. VIA is looking horrible.

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  2. This is encouraging. Thanks for crunching the numbers. I'm running Erie tomorrow. I BQ'D may 1st at Goodlife Toronto Marathon with a 1:18 buffer, but running tomorrow to improve that time. Weather looks good!

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  3. I ran the Last Chance BQ.2 Chicagoland today (9/10). It was carnage with rain and high humidity for most of the race. Only 188 finishers and almost 100 DNFs. I counted about 65 or so qualifiers. Last year there were almost 150 qualifiers. I managed to qualify with a 1:35 buffer. Like my chances...but its going to be a looooong 3 weeks!

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