Saturday, September 10, 2016

2016 Big Cottonwood Marathon Analysis

This morning was the Big Cottonwood Marathon, one of the last feeder races we have in the 2017 qualification year analysis.

This was also my backup race if I wasn't able to re-qualify at Mountains 2 Beach - thankfully I didn't have to make the trek to SLC to see if my quads could survive this course.




AG Group2016 Qualifiers2016 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-345024520.41%6823129.44%
F35-394714233.10%5015532.26%
F40-443011426.32%3911733.33%
F45-49257334.25%269028.89%
F50-54124129.27%205238.46%
F55-59112839.29%193357.58%
F60-6451050.00%4944.44%
F65-691616.67%3933.33%
F70-74010.00%1333.33%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-342915818.35%3216719.16%
M35-39189219.57%137916.46%
M40-44269826.53%2410423.08%
M45-49157520.00%349436.17%
M50-54166524.62%228027.50%
M55-59166325.40%105020.00%
M60-6442615.38%113036.67%
M65-692922.22%2633.33%
M70-74040.00%4944.44%
M75-79010.00%010.00%
M80+000.00%000.00%
Totals307125124.54%382131928.96%

More finishers and than last year and 24.43% more qualifiers this year - though 75 additional qualifiers isn't going to erase the shortfall we have at this point.

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute175.54%246.28%
1-2 minutes289.12%348.90%
2-3 minutes185.86%215.50%
3-4 minutes216.84%205.24%
4-5 minutes185.86%236.02%
5-10 minutes8828.66%8722.77%
10-20 minutes7524.43%10728.01%
20> minutes4213.68%6617.28%
Totals307382

Squeaker Pack is a little smaller but this race (both years) has a larger than after under 5 minute margin group: 33.22% vs 31.94%

Totals


AG Group2016 Qualifiers20156 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3452574163612.63%44434048610.97%
F35-3924121670314.44%21731696012.81%
F40-4423821587515.00%20341560313.04%
F45-4924261157320.96%21281206217.64%
F50-541513762619.84%1434816417.56%
F55-59804384020.94%713394718.06%
F60-64355158222.44%358170521.00%
F65-6910350020.60%11754821.35%
F70-742113815.22%2116412.80%
F75-7953016.67%1224.55%
F80+1425.00%41040.00%
M18-3447303720012.72%37543534710.62%
M35-3923431962011.94%19491896910.27%
M40-4426842132412.59%22302018911.05%
M45-4932181805017.83%27051807314.97%
M50-5425141435217.52%21031437414.63%
M55-591657877618.88%1451913815.88%
M60-641001465721.49%946481219.66%
M65-69448193623.14%426206620.62%
M70-7413864321.46%11165017.08%
M75-792517214.53%3018616.13%
M80+73917.95%104323.26%
Totals3404422627615.05%2914122351813.04%

14.4% fewer qualifiers and and 13.35% decrease in rate of qualification.

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute18935.56%16465.65%
1-2 minutes18865.54%16555.68%
2-3 minutes18925.56%15885.45%
3-4 minutes17205.05%14625.02%
4-5 minutes16154.74%13554.65%
5-10 minutes716621.05%623821.41%
10-20 minutes954028.02%809427.78%
20> minutes833224.47%710324.37%
Totals3404429141

Nearly identical. Squeaker Pack is 26.45% vs 26.44%. So much for the theory I've heard bandied about that people are going to qualify with more and more margin. I wasn't sure I ever bought into that theory to begin with.

The number of runners in for the 2016 qualification year dataset achieving 2:28 of better was 29344.

The buffer has shrunk a bit to 203 from 328.

With two races to go that area relatively small, it will be interesting to see if that 203 gets wiped out.

The countdown is on! Some of you may be registering this week; I, like about 26.44% of the qualifiers, will have to wait until September 19th!

6 comments:

  1. I qualified by 1:52. I check your blog frequently and would like to thank you for all of your work in making this information visible and easy to understand! Crossing my fingers!!

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  2. Good work - continue to breathe a little easier with a -2:55 min time. Crossing my fingers that it holds up.

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  3. Got some numbers for Chicagoland qualifiers. 66 this year versus 125 last year. The reason this is important is that the 330 "qualified to run this race" will registered to run Boston if they BQ but the weather didn't cooperate this year. Got some numbers for Lehigh(VIA) and it looks like a lot less than last year. Not even sweating with my 1:38 cushion. Just one more piece of the puzzle at Erie.

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    Replies
    1. Looks like there was an issue at Lehigh with a train on the course blocking runners for several minutes...not sure if that came by surprise or if it was a known issue (like at Mohawk)-but gotta think that's gonna affect some potential BQ's...

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Got the results from Erie. Only 1377 finishers. That's low with 2050 signing up. The preliminary BQ number seems low too. Almost 20% less than last year.

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