Monday, August 1, 2016

2015 Mohawk-Hudson River Marathon Analsys

With the release of the latest feeders from the BAA, the Mohawk-Hudson River Marathon is now on the radar!

This is a fairly small race. In 2014 there were fewer than 1000 finishers, but it has a high rate of BQ thanks to a favorable course and usually favorable weather. I'm tempted to run it myself because I haven't had a marathon under 60 degrees since 2012 when I ran Wineglass in Corning, NY. It's also prime foliage season, something I miss from growing up in Massachusetts. We don't have fall foliage here in southern California!



The one drawback to this race is that apparently you can get stuck waiting for a train to pass. It doesn't happen every year, but when it does, you could be waiting about 3 minutes or so. They set up mats that time how long you wait and then deduct it from your net time! For some this could be a boon because you get a a small rest that you don't have to pay for in your time; for others, stopping and having to resume is bad for momentum, isn't worth the rest, and can have an overall negative impact. Either way, it's an interesting part of this race to consider as far as if you want to use it for your BQ attempt.

2015 had quite a few more finishers than 2014, but the rate of BQ was just slightly down. The net effect is more total qualifiers year over year.

AG Group2016 Qualifiers2016 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-342213516.30%2915818.35%
F35-39106914.49%137118.31%
F40-4485714.04%127017.14%
F45-49186229.03%166923.19%
F50-54103826.32%136021.67%
F55-5972133.33%113333.33%
F60-643560.00%91560.00%
F65-692450.00%010.00%
F70-74000.00%000.00%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-34229423.40%3014720.41%
M35-39189419.15%169816.33%
M40-44209620.83%2410822.22%
M45-49176825.00%2811125.23%
M50-54248129.63%2910627.36%
M55-5993823.68%105817.24%
M60-64102638.46%82828.57%
M65-694666.67%51050.00%
M70-741250.00%11100.00%
M75-79000.00%000.00%
M80+000.00%000.00%
Totals20589622.88%254114422.20%

The qualification margins break down into the following distributions:

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute188.78%145.51%
1-2 minutes94.39%155.91%
2-3 minutes104.88%176.69%
3-4 minutes115.37%103.94%
4-5 minutes115.37%114.33%
5-10 minutes3316.10%5421.26%
10-20 minutes5325.85%5923.23%
20> minutes6029.27%7429.13%
Totals205254

Squeaker Pack 2016 BQ: 28.78%
Squeaker Pack 2017 BQ: 26.38%

(Note: Squeaker Pack = qualifiers with less than 5 minutes of margin)

Mohawk-Hudson is bucking the trend for most marathons this year and has a smaller Squeaker Pack and more qualifiers. What does that mean for the cutoff?

AG Group2016 Qualifiers20156 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3450964075912.50%42833963210.81%
F35-3923171624014.27%20911647612.69%
F40-4423101547514.93%19731523512.95%
F45-4923431124820.83%20641173317.59%
F50-541471742619.81%1386792717.48%
F55-59777373220.82%675381017.72%
F60-64338153721.99%351166721.06%
F65-699748420.04%11053120.72%
F70-742113615.44%2016012.50%
F75-7942814.29%1224.55%
F80+1425.00%41040.00%
M18-3446233665612.61%36833485310.57%
M35-3922981930311.90%19121870010.22%
M40-4426182098412.48%21811987610.97%
M45-4931541771517.80%26281777614.78%
M50-5424461406117.40%20411407714.50%
M55-591606854918.79%1415894615.82%
M60-64976455821.41%918469719.54%
M65-69438189423.13%409201020.35%
M70-7413663221.52%10663316.75%
M75-792516714.97%3018116.57%
M80+63815.79%104323.26%
Totals3310122162614.94%2829121899512.92%

It's small race, so its impact is modest: we're still down a good number of qualifiers.

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute18375.55%15925.63%
1-2 minutes18015.44%15955.64%
2-3 minutes18145.48%15245.39%
3-4 minutes16585.01%14094.98%
4-5 minutes15614.72%13034.61%
5-10 minutes693220.94%603821.34%
10-20 minutes931528.14%787127.82%
20> minutes818324.72%695924.60%
Totals3310128291

Squeaker Pack is pretty much the same, slightly bigger in 2017 (26.20% vs 26.24%).

With the 21 races we've analyzed thus far, the number of runners achieving better than 147 seconds of margin in the 2016 qualification year was: 28579.

No fancy query necessary to tell me that the cut off prediction is still zero.

One thing to note is that this race did put a small dent in the buffer of qualifiers. Prior to Mohawk-Hudson River, the gap between the total qualifiers achieving the 2016 margin versus the total qualifiers for 2017 was 368.

To put it more simply/understandably: if this calculation was a perfect prediction where we don't take into account personal choice to register and there were actually 28579 slots available (which we know not to be true, but for the sake of simplicity), that means that there would be 368 slots still open after the initial registration.

After Mohawk, that gap is now 288. I still need to do Wineglass which happened last fall. Then we will have four still-to-be-run marathons: Santa Rosa, Erie, Big Cottonwood, Lehigh Valley

It's not a huge buffer that the calculation is showing, so, while I am feeling confident we won't be seeing a cut off like 2016, I'm not so confident that there will be no cut off.

9 comments:

  1. Thanks so much for putting this together.
    When you predict no cutoff (for simplicity sake), does that imply the standard qualifying times should suffice, or does that mean no further reductions beyond last year's 2:27 under standard qualifying time?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It means the standard qualifying times should suffice. Again, this is all up to how many people decide to register to run.

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    2. This will depend on the number of participants BAA will allow to run in 2017 and they haven't announce that yet. The last 2 years were 30,000. If they cut back then the calculations will change. Crossing my fingers.

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    3. On Lam, this thought occurred to me a a couple weeks ago and it I pushed it out of my head! Because, if they do that, I worry that my 2:37 won't be enough. I would hope that the BAA would wait a year or two before cutting it down, considering the 2016 had such an aggressive cut off. They don't have any bigger a crystal ball than we do to determine if people will register this year or not. I feel it would be premature to do that.

      If they do, I will have to do the percentage of difference of spots open, then take the number of qualifiers for 2016, cut that down by the same percentage, and see what we end up with. Sigh.

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  2. Since the Hudson was in fall 2015, why do you put it in only today ??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A few posts back I noted that the BAA had finally released a new feeder list. Mohawk wasn't on the initial list when I started this. Because it's now on the list, I felt it was good data to add.

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    2. I also noted that in the first line of this post.

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  3. I'm running Marquette marathon next weekend - FYI the field size has seen a 20% registration spike from last year and the weather is looking ideal. I'd estimate 75 - 100 BQ's. Thanks again for putting together this analysis - it's one of the reasons I decided to aim for a 2017 BQ instead of 2018.

    ReplyDelete