It seems like 2016 late spring is the year of heat for the East Coast and Midwest because this race wasn't spared. Race start was 75F! That's pretty rough. I would imagine by the time most people were finishing it was over 80F easily. These conditions make it very hard to perform well and that is evidenced in the results.
AG Group | 2015 Qualifiers | 2015 AG Total | Percentage | 2016 Qualifiers | 2016 AG Total | Percentage |
F18-34 | 219 | 1291 | 16.96% | 103 | 1564 | 6.59% |
F35-39 | 78 | 412 | 18.93% | 43 | 681 | 6.31% |
F40-44 | 67 | 322 | 20.81% | 28 | 564 | 4.96% |
F45-49 | 46 | 230 | 20.00% | 32 | 384 | 8.33% |
F50-54 | 52 | 206 | 25.24% | 28 | 281 | 9.96% |
F55-59 | 30 | 97 | 30.93% | 20 | 159 | 12.58% |
F60-64 | 10 | 46 | 21.74% | 9 | 70 | 12.86% |
F65-69 | 1 | 16 | 6.25% | 2 | 20 | 10.00% |
F70-74 | 0 | 3 | 0.00% | 1 | 7 | 14.29% |
F75-79 | 1 | 2 | 50.00% | 0 | 1 | 0.00% |
F80+ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
M18-34 | 256 | 1343 | 19.06% | 116 | 1368 | 8.48% |
M35-39 | 68 | 486 | 13.99% | 35 | 533 | 6.57% |
M40-44 | 69 | 418 | 16.51% | 32 | 502 | 6.37% |
M45-49 | 74 | 359 | 20.61% | 28 | 413 | 6.78% |
M50-54 | 64 | 348 | 18.39% | 30 | 364 | 8.24% |
M55-59 | 40 | 233 | 17.17% | 30 | 307 | 9.77% |
M60-64 | 35 | 153 | 22.88% | 14 | 164 | 8.54% |
M65-69 | 17 | 64 | 26.56% | 10 | 75 | 13.33% |
M70-74 | 6 | 15 | 40.00% | 3 | 21 | 14.29% |
M75-79 | 0 | 4 | 0.00% | 0 | 3 | 0.00% |
M80+ | 1 | 2 | 50.00% | 0 | 2 | 0.00% |
Totals | 1134 | 6050 | 18.74% | 564 | 7483 | 7.54% |
This is about the worst year over year I've seen for BQs. In fact it is the worst. There are about 50% fewer qualifiers. Boston was second worst behind that at around 30% fewer qualifiers.
Margin | 2015 | Percentage | 2016 | Percentage |
<1 minute | 67 | 5.91% | 25 | 4.43% |
1-2 minutes | 62 | 5.47% | 24 | 4.26% |
2-3 minutes | 64 | 5.64% | 37 | 6.56% |
3-4 minutes | 59 | 5.20% | 23 | 4.08% |
4-5 minutes | 46 | 4.06% | 28 | 4.96% |
5-10 minutes | 213 | 18.78% | 115 | 20.39% |
10-20 minutes | 298 | 26.28% | 138 | 24.47% |
20> minutes | 325 | 28.66% | 174 | 30.85% |
Totals | 1134 | 564 |
2015 Squeaker Pack: 26.28%
2016 Squeaker Pack: 24.29%
Interestingly, the Squeaker Pack is smaller which makes me wonder if the only runners that were able to BQ in the heat were the fastest runners who usually have 10+ minute margins.
Well, it goes without saying the cutoff prediction is not going up.
Here are the totals:
AG Group | 2016 Qualifiers | 20156 AG Total | Percentage | 2017 Qualifiers | 2017 AG Total | Percentage |
F18-34 | 5074 | 40624 | 12.49% | 4254 | 39474 | 10.78% |
F35-39 | 2307 | 16171 | 14.27% | 2078 | 16405 | 12.67% |
F40-44 | 2302 | 15418 | 14.93% | 1961 | 15165 | 12.93% |
F45-49 | 2325 | 11186 | 20.78% | 2048 | 11664 | 17.56% |
F50-54 | 1461 | 7388 | 19.78% | 1373 | 7867 | 17.45% |
F55-59 | 770 | 3711 | 20.75% | 664 | 3777 | 17.58% |
F60-64 | 335 | 1532 | 21.87% | 342 | 1652 | 20.70% |
F65-69 | 95 | 480 | 19.79% | 110 | 530 | 20.75% |
F70-74 | 21 | 136 | 15.44% | 20 | 160 | 12.50% |
F75-79 | 4 | 28 | 14.29% | 1 | 22 | 4.55% |
F80+ | 1 | 4 | 25.00% | 4 | 10 | 40.00% |
M18-34 | 4601 | 36562 | 12.58% | 3653 | 34706 | 10.53% |
M35-39 | 2280 | 19209 | 11.87% | 1896 | 18602 | 10.19% |
M40-44 | 2598 | 20888 | 12.44% | 2157 | 19768 | 10.91% |
M45-49 | 3137 | 17647 | 17.78% | 2600 | 17665 | 14.72% |
M50-54 | 2422 | 13980 | 17.32% | 2012 | 13971 | 14.40% |
M55-59 | 1597 | 8511 | 18.76% | 1405 | 8888 | 15.81% |
M60-64 | 966 | 4532 | 21.32% | 910 | 4669 | 19.49% |
M65-69 | 434 | 1888 | 22.99% | 404 | 2000 | 20.20% |
M70-74 | 135 | 630 | 21.43% | 105 | 632 | 16.61% |
M75-79 | 25 | 167 | 14.97% | 30 | 181 | 16.57% |
M80+ | 6 | 38 | 15.79% | 10 | 43 | 23.26% |
Totals | 32896 | 220730 | 14.90% | 28037 | 217851 | 12.87% |
That is 13.64% fewer qualifiers which is up 13.5% after Ottawa.
Margin | 2016 | Percentage | 2017 | Percentage |
<1 minute | 1819 | 5.53% | 1578 | 5.63% |
1-2 minutes | 1792 | 5.45% | 1580 | 5.64% |
2-3 minutes | 1804 | 5.48% | 1507 | 5.38% |
3-4 minutes | 1647 | 5.01% | 1399 | 4.99% |
4-5 minutes | 1550 | 4.71% | 1292 | 4.61% |
5-10 minutes | 6899 | 20.97% | 5984 | 21.34% |
10-20 minutes | 9262 | 28.16% | 7812 | 27.86% |
20> minutes | 8123 | 24.69% | 6885 | 24.56% |
Totals | 32896 | 28037 |
The Squeaker Pack is slightly bigger in the 2017 qualification year - 26.24% vs 26.18%.
On to the cutoff calculation!
The number of runners achieving better than 147 seconds of margin for the races in the 2016 qualification year in the 20 races analyzed is 28405.
As you can see, I don't even have to run a query on the database. There are nearly 400 more qualifiers over 147 than we have total qualifiers.
The predicted cutoff is back to 0.
So, I just want to be really clear because I'm getting excited. 0 cutoff means that if you made your BQ time, you would get in (I know there are more races coming, but as it stands right now). I just want to make sure that I'm not missing anything with the Squeaker Pack analysis or anything :) I made mine with a 2:33 cushion, so I'm hoping!
ReplyDeleteThank you, thank you, thank you for doing this!
If the prediction is right, yes, that would the case. I have 2:37 so I'm in a very similar boat to you. That was still good enough last year - it is looking very unlikely that this year will be worse than last year. It will be really interesting to see what happens with the registration volume this year. That is what till dictate if we see a cutoff or not.
DeleteBoth of you should make your hotel reservations.
ReplyDelete