Monday, July 11, 2016

2016 Grandmas Marathon Analysis

Interesting fact, the marathon was named after Grandmas Restaurant who sponsored it (when apparently no one else would) when it was a inaugural event with only 150 participants in 1977. I always wondered where it got its name because it is definitely unique! Read more over on Wikipedia and the Duluth Tribune has a great article on it's history, if you're curious!


It seems like 2016 late spring is the year of heat for the East Coast and Midwest because this race wasn't spared. Race start was 75F! That's pretty rough. I would imagine by the time most people were finishing it was over 80F easily. These conditions make it very hard to perform well and that is evidenced in the results.

AG Group2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage2016 Qualifiers2016 AG TotalPercentage
F18-34219129116.96%10315646.59%
F35-397841218.93%436816.31%
F40-446732220.81%285644.96%
F45-494623020.00%323848.33%
F50-545220625.24%282819.96%
F55-59309730.93%2015912.58%
F60-64104621.74%97012.86%
F65-691166.25%22010.00%
F70-74030.00%1714.29%
F75-791250.00%010.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-34256134319.06%11613688.48%
M35-396848613.99%355336.57%
M40-446941816.51%325026.37%
M45-497435920.61%284136.78%
M50-546434818.39%303648.24%
M55-594023317.17%303079.77%
M60-643515322.88%141648.54%
M65-69176426.56%107513.33%
M70-7461540.00%32114.29%
M75-79040.00%030.00%
M80+1250.00%020.00%
Totals1134605018.74%56474837.54%

This is about the worst year over year I've seen for BQs. In fact it is the worst. There are about 50% fewer qualifiers. Boston was second worst behind that at around 30% fewer qualifiers.

Margin2015Percentage2016Percentage
<1 minute675.91%254.43%
1-2 minutes625.47%244.26%
2-3 minutes645.64%376.56%
3-4 minutes595.20%234.08%
4-5 minutes464.06%284.96%
5-10 minutes21318.78%11520.39%
10-20 minutes29826.28%13824.47%
20> minutes32528.66%17430.85%
Totals1134564

2015 Squeaker Pack: 26.28%
2016 Squeaker Pack: 24.29%

Interestingly, the Squeaker Pack is smaller which makes me wonder if the only runners that were able to BQ in the heat were the fastest runners who usually have 10+ minute margins.

Well, it goes without saying the cutoff prediction is not going up.

Here are the totals:

AG Group2016 Qualifiers20156 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3450744062412.49%42543947410.78%
F35-3923071617114.27%20781640512.67%
F40-4423021541814.93%19611516512.93%
F45-4923251118620.78%20481166417.56%
F50-541461738819.78%1373786717.45%
F55-59770371120.75%664377717.58%
F60-64335153221.87%342165220.70%
F65-699548019.79%11053020.75%
F70-742113615.44%2016012.50%
F75-7942814.29%1224.55%
F80+1425.00%41040.00%
M18-3446013656212.58%36533470610.53%
M35-3922801920911.87%18961860210.19%
M40-4425982088812.44%21571976810.91%
M45-4931371764717.78%26001766514.72%
M50-5424221398017.32%20121397114.40%
M55-591597851118.76%1405888815.81%
M60-64966453221.32%910466919.49%
M65-69434188822.99%404200020.20%
M70-7413563021.43%10563216.61%
M75-792516714.97%3018116.57%
M80+63815.79%104323.26%
Totals3289622073014.90%2803721785112.87%

That is 13.64% fewer qualifiers which is up 13.5% after Ottawa.

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute18195.53%15785.63%
1-2 minutes17925.45%15805.64%
2-3 minutes18045.48%15075.38%
3-4 minutes16475.01%13994.99%
4-5 minutes15504.71%12924.61%
5-10 minutes689920.97%598421.34%
10-20 minutes926228.16%781227.86%
20> minutes812324.69%688524.56%
Totals3289628037

The Squeaker Pack is slightly bigger in the 2017 qualification year - 26.24% vs 26.18%.

On to the cutoff calculation!

The number of runners achieving better than 147 seconds of margin for the races in the 2016 qualification year in the 20 races analyzed is 28405.

As you can see, I don't even have to run a query on the database. There are nearly 400 more qualifiers over 147 than we have total qualifiers.

The predicted cutoff is back to 0.









3 comments:

  1. So, I just want to be really clear because I'm getting excited. 0 cutoff means that if you made your BQ time, you would get in (I know there are more races coming, but as it stands right now). I just want to make sure that I'm not missing anything with the Squeaker Pack analysis or anything :) I made mine with a 2:33 cushion, so I'm hoping!

    Thank you, thank you, thank you for doing this!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If the prediction is right, yes, that would the case. I have 2:37 so I'm in a very similar boat to you. That was still good enough last year - it is looking very unlikely that this year will be worse than last year. It will be really interesting to see what happens with the registration volume this year. That is what till dictate if we see a cutoff or not.

      Delete
  2. Both of you should make your hotel reservations.

    ReplyDelete