Tuesday, June 28, 2016

New Top Feeder List from BAA Website

I had been waiting to see if the BAA would post an updated list of the top feeder races and looks like they finally did. And not surprisingly, it changed a bit. There are three changes to the list. I am inclined to include them in some form.

The old list (2015):

  • Berlin Marathon
  • St. George Marathon
  • Twin Cities Marathon
  • Portland Marathon
  • Chicago Marathon
  • Steamtown Marathon
  • Columbus Marathon
  • Baystate Marathon
  • Toronto Waterfront Marathon
  • Marine Corps Marathon
  • New York Marathon
  • Indianapolis Monumental Marathon
  • Richmond Marathon
  • Philadelphia Marathon
  • California International Marathon
  • Houston Marathon
  • Boston Marathon
  • Bayshore Marathon
  • Ottawa Marathon
  • Mountains 2 Beach Marathon
  • Grandma's Marathon
  • Santa Rosa Marathon
  • Big Cottonwood Marathon
  • Erie Marathon
  • Lehigh Valley Marathon

The new list (2016):

  • Boston Marathon
  • Chicago Marathon
  • New York City Marathon
  • Philadelphia Marathon
  • California International Marathon
  • St George Marathon
  • Grandma's Marathon
  • Erie Marathon
  • Twin Cities Marathon
  • Houston Marathon
  • Ottawa Marathon
  • Baystate Marathon
  • Berlin Marathon
  • Columbus Marathon
  • Indianapolis Monumental Marathon
  • Toronto Waterfront Marathon
  • Mountains 2 Beach Marathon
  • Richmond Marathon
  • Steamtown Marathon
  • Mohawk Hudson River
  • Marine Corps Marathon
  • Big Cottonwood Marathon
  • Santa Rosa Marathon
  • London Marathon
  • Wineglass Marathon
Portland, Bayshore. and Lehigh Valley have fallen off the list and replaced with Mohawk-Hudson River, London, and Wineglass.

I had Mohawk-Hudson River on my list as a bonus analysis race as it has a high percentage of qualification and over 250 qualifiers which makes it similar to some of the other smaller top feeders. And Wineglass is another race that I've run, and I wondered why it wasn't on the list of top feeders because the course and weather are (usually) very favorable. 

London is an interesting one. I wonder if it would be like Berlin, where the impact was low and, in fact, when it was included in the cut off analysis by last year's blogger, it yielded a misleadingly lower cutoff prediction. When she excluded the Berlin results, she got a cutoff prediction that was fairly close to the end result. The published result data for the 2015 Berlin Marathon makes it difficult for me to include because they didn't fully publish the ages of the finishers. Many results have, for example, "MH" so I can't get an age for that result. If it were just a few, that would be one thing, but there are many results with this issue (all the way up to like 5+ hour finish times, so it's not some elite designation. And you see that MH in the first page of results too, with sub 3 hour finishers).

Looking at London, we have a similar problem. They are publishing the under 40 group as 18-39 with no indication of the actual age of the finisher. There are two Boston qualifier age groups in there with 5 minutes of difference in the standard. Given that, I can't include this data in the analysis, especially considering the 18-39 age group makes up more than 40% of the qualifiers in the current dataset. That is too big of a group to not be able to properly categorize.

I am thinking I will pull in the results of Mohawk-Hudson River and Wineglass. I will do result totals across all the races (so this will yield 26 total races). Additionally, I will calculate the cutoff with the old feeder list (minus Berlin) and the new feeder list (minus London and Berlin). So we'll get 3 cutoff prediction values on which to pontificate.

3 comments:


  1. I'm not entirely sure I get your issue with the Berlin age groups. Participants' ages aren't published, but age groups are, and that's all you need, right?
    Are you maybe unfamiliar with the abbreviations?
    MH stands for 20-29 year old and MJA for 18-19 year old male finishers, WH and WJA for female finishers respectively. Rest should be clear.
    That being said I fully support your decision to exclude Berlin and London from the prediction as long as there is no possibility to weight the data. Somebody made an estimate that the registration rate of Berlin BQers is only 6% (vs. around 40% for races in North America) and London should be equally low given the size of the race and that it is barely among the top 25 feeder races.
    Last but not least thank you for all the work you put into those amazing statistics!

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    Replies
    1. So I was missing that part of what MH stands for. Is that published somewhere?

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  2. I'm afraid I just can't seem to find a comprehensive list of age groups that also includes all the abbreviations used in the Berlin results but they are pretty much the standard ones, i.e. MH stands for "männliche Hauptklasse" ("male main class") and "Hauptklasse" for Berlin 2016 will be 1987-1996.
    http://www.bmw-berlin-marathon.com/plane-dein-rennen/infos-rund-um-die-anmeldung.html
    English version (under "categories") somehow calls it "master class".
    http://www.bmw-berlin-marathon.com/en/plan-your-race/registration-information.html

    Maybe also check results archive (in which birth years are listed) to see that this checks out.

    Sorry about this messy post, not sure it's much of a help.

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