Saturday, June 25, 2016

2016 Scotiabank Ottawa Marathon Analysis


This race has been around since 1975. I looked at the course a while back and it's fairly flat and fast. the issue is the that in late May, you might get unlucky and get a hot day like this year. Seems like last year many of the feeder races had great weather (except NYCM). This year, it's more likely that the weather is unfavorable (Boston, Bayshore, Ottawa, Grandmas).

Last year, looking at the totals, Ottawa had a better year than in 2014 and 2016. This year looks like 2014. I wonder if it was warm? Boston was warm in 2014 as well.

AG Group2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage2016 Qualifiers2016 AG TotalPercentage
F18-347347015.53%7245415.86%
F35-393928113.88%3726713.86%
F40-443928913.49%4727916.85%
F45-495621725.81%3719718.78%
F50-543916423.78%2917017.06%
F55-59196728.36%125820.69%
F60-641214.76%21414.29%
F65-691812.50%1520.00%
F70-74020.00%010.00%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-349067013.43%7661512.36%
M35-395945013.11%5444712.08%
M40-449656117.11%6749513.54%
M45-499446720.13%7143116.47%
M50-548138820.88%6036416.48%
M55-595923325.32%3320216.34%
M60-643111227.68%168818.18%
M65-69184045.00%103826.32%
M70-7471450.00%51926.32%
M75-79040.00%030.00%
M80+000.00%11100.00%
Totals802445817.99%630414815.19%

Nearly 18% of runners qualified for Boston in 2015. In 2016 the number of qualifiers is down 21%.

Margin2015Percentage2016Percentage
<1 minute566.98%436.83%
1-2 minutes445.49%365.71%
2-3 minutes384.74%426.67%
3-4 minutes404.99%436.83%
4-5 minutes415.11%274.29%
5-10 minutes16320.32%12720.16%
10-20 minutes21626.93%16626.35%
20> minutes20425.44%14623.17%
Totals802630

Squeaker Pack is bigger in 2016, 30.32% vs last year's 27.31%.

We know what this is going to do for the cutoff so let's cut to the chase.

AG Group2016 Qualifiers20156 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3448553933312.34%41513791010.95%
F35-3922291575914.14%20351572412.94%
F40-4422351509614.81%19331460113.24%
F45-4922791095620.80%20161128017.87%
F50-541409718219.62%1345758617.73%
F55-59740361420.48%644361817.80%
F60-64325148621.87%333158221.05%
F65-699446420.26%10851021.18%
F70-742113315.79%1915312.42%
F75-7932611.54%1214.76%
F80+1425.00%41040.00%
M18-3443453521912.34%35373333810.61%
M35-3922121872311.81%18611806910.30%
M40-4425292047012.35%21251926611.03%
M45-4930631728817.72%25721725214.91%
M50-5423581363217.30%19821360714.57%
M55-591557827818.81%1375858116.02%
M60-64931437921.26%896450519.89%
M65-69417182422.86%394192520.47%
M70-7412961520.98%10261116.69%
M75-792516315.34%3017816.85%
M80+53613.89%104124.39%
Totals3176221468014.80%2747321036813.06%

13.5% fewer qualifiers.

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute17525.52%15535.65%
1-2 minutes17305.45%15565.66%
2-3 minutes17405.48%14705.35%
3-4 minutes15885.00%13765.01%
4-5 minutes15044.74%12644.60%
5-10 minutes668621.05%586921.36%
10-20 minutes896428.22%767427.93%
20> minutes779824.55%671124.43%
Totals3176227473

Squeaker Pack getting bigger in BQ 2017 year with 26.28% over 26.18%. Even the distributions are looking very similar, with slightly more folks under 2 minutes of margin.

The number of runners achieving 2:28 or better in the 2016 qualification year was 27433. Which if you look at the total qualifiers, that's only a difference of 40 runners. The 27433rd runner sorting on margin descending has a margin of (this is funny)

1 second or 0:01

The conditions at Grandma's sound like they were worse than Bayshore and Ottawa. I'm fully expecting that we're back to 0 cutoff and then some once I compile that data.




2 comments:

  1. Thank you so much for doing this!!! After missing the 2:28 cutoff by 17 seconds last year, this data is so intriguing! I beat my qualifying time by 4:19 seconds 2 months ago at the OC Marathon so naturally praying that is enough this year!

    ReplyDelete
  2. It was VERY warm in Ottawa and they diverted the course at 4:00 in. Lots of people at med tents, etc.

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