Monday, June 6, 2016

2016 Mountains 2 Beach Marathon Analysis

Mountains 2 Beach has been around since 2011 under a different name: Ojai 2 Ocean. In 2013 it changed it's name (not sure why?) though the course still starts in Ojai and ends at the beach in Ventura. In 2012, I paced the 4:25 group. The race was much smaller back then, no Expo, and there were sporadically placed paced groups (3:55, 4:10, 4:25 are some that I remember). There are far more pace groups now that it's bigger and a popular race for PRs and BQs. I saw a 3:23, 3:28, 3:33, 3:38, 3:43, etc. They aim for 2 minutes or better than the BQ standards because the cutoff has been at least a minute since 2014. I finished with the 3:38 group, and they had two pacers. One in the front, and then they had one in the back. They were great pacers too. Motivating, didn't go out too fast, and helpful. I have to say that the 3:38 pacer at the back is one of the reasons I was able to move my ass and get as close to my PR as I did. It was a battle at the end.

The finish area, though, was kind of chaotic. I actually understand now why the big races make you walk and walk and walk to the exit. I got stuck like 20-40 feet after the finish by spectators that were greeting their friends, and I could feel myself cramping. This would be the one area they have to address. It was a challenge just to get to the med tent if you needed it.

The race usually sells out early but they have a wait list and they also have an online system for bib transfer. I got a bib transfer via Facebook on the Thursday after Boston, though about a week after I did that I was selected from the waitlist so it seems like a race you could get lucky and squeeze into a month before.

It has about ~500 feet of climbing, and 1300 feet elevation loss - about a 700 feet net elevation loss. Not an extreme downhill but enough to give you a little boost without tearing up your quads. Weather is usually decent - around 60 and if it's a normal year, you have the marine layer so the sun stays away until about 11am.

This race was like a few others in that is bucked the trend - it has more finishers and a higher qualification rate in 2016.

AG Group2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage2016 Qualifiers2016 AG TotalPercentage
F18-345122522.67%7930326.07%
F35-394314429.86%6017634.09%
F40-445415634.62%5217729.38%
F45-495113936.69%6114940.94%
F50-54287736.36%3012224.59%
F55-59194344.19%204940.82%
F60-6421020.00%61442.86%
F65-69030.00%4944.44%
F70-74020.00%020.00%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-343415621.79%5719129.84%
M35-392611722.22%4814732.65%
M40-443615922.64%4517525.71%
M45-494412036.67%7717743.50%
M50-542810626.42%5116431.10%
M55-59218624.42%3411030.91%
M60-64102737.04%124526.67%
M65-6931915.79%92733.33%
M70-744944.44%4580.00%
M75-79010.00%040.00%
M80+000.00%000.00%
Totals454159928.39%649204631.72%

About 43% more qualifiers, and a jump of 3.4% in qualification rate.

The breakdown is interesting!

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute337.27%253.85%
1-2 minutes306.61%314.78%
2-3 minutes439.47%487.40%
3-4 minutes419.03%365.55%
4-5 minutes367.93%426.47%
5-10 minutes10623.35%17927.58%
10-20 minutes8919.60%14322.03%
20> minutes7616.74%14522.34%
Totals454649

In 2015, the Squeaker Pack was 40%! In 2016 it's a 28% which is closer to the average we've been seeing.

So with no cutoff being the previous update, what does this above average Mountains 2 Beach performance mean?

AG Group2016 Qualifiers20156 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3447283844312.30%40393707310.89%
F35-3921601529114.13%19741527212.93%
F40-4421741465614.83%18681418813.17%
F45-4921991065020.65%19681099617.90%
F50-541359695519.54%1310734817.83%
F55-59714351420.32%627352317.80%
F60-64315144821.75%328155621.08%
F65-699145320.09%10750021.40%
F70-742113116.03%1915212.50%
F75-7932611.54%1214.76%
F80+1425.00%41040.00%
M18-3442113426412.29%34393239610.62%
M35-3921291809511.77%17951745210.29%
M40-4424101971812.22%20501860311.02%
M45-4929451669317.64%24811665914.89%
M50-5422501310917.16%19061311414.53%
M55-591481796618.59%1336830616.08%
M60-64886423220.94%873437119.97%
M65-69391176222.19%379186920.28%
M70-7412159820.23%9759116.41%
M75-792515915.72%3017317.34%
M80+53613.89%94022.50%
Totals3061920820314.71%2664020421313.05%

Totals are still way down. 13% decrease in total qualifiers.

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute16855.50%14975.62%
1-2 minutes16635.43%15055.65%
2-3 minutes16825.49%14135.30%
3-4 minutes15305.00%13204.95%
4-5 minutes14474.73%12294.61%
5-10 minutes643821.03%569221.37%
10-20 minutes865728.27%744927.96%
20> minutes751724.55%653524.53%
Totals3061926640

Squeaker Pack is nearly identical year-over-year = 26.15% vs 26.14%

What is the total number of qualifiers up to this point for the 2016 qualification year? 26452

We have more runners than that in our 2017 qualifier pool, so there will be some kind of cutoff with the assumptions we are making.

The 26452nd runner, sorting my qualification margin descending, has a margin of...

7 seconds

This is really a marginal number. I wonder what the BAA would do if they ended up with this small a cutoff. Would they let everyone in, or hold to the exact capacity? It's an interesting question.

The next two races we have to analyze are from the same weekend: Bayshore Marathon and Ottawa Marathon.

The weather for these races was hot, and just glancing at some other aggregator sites, the numbers are down. I have a feeling that 7 seconds is going to be erased again once I get those results in. Bummer is that they are not in a great format for me to automate the download (because I don't feel like getting carpal tunnel, while I click next, save, like 1000+ times), so I will probably have to pull them from a major aggregation site and hope they don't block me :)

2 comments:

  1. Phew! Thanks for the update, I've been stalking the site since Bayshore. I wish there was someway we could help, if you can't get them from an aggregation site I'd be willing to download, save, next for Bayshore for you at least. Thank you again from all of us "squeakers."

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks for the update! Really appreciate it!

    ReplyDelete