Monday, June 13, 2016

2016 Bayshore Marathon Update

Hi All! I've got the Bayshore numbers for you.


Doesn't that looks like a pretty course?

I looked into this race when I was trying to find something after Boston with a favorable course before. It was sold out by the time I looked at it (which was late - like a couple days after Boston). I have a feeling it sells out relatively quickly. This time luck was on my side because the East Coast was hot the weekend of this race - that would have been a bummer for me to fly across the country only have have a race day where it was 70-80 degrees. I suppose after two of the warmest years on record in Southern California, I finally got lucky with Mountains 2 Beach.

I think, though, that this will still be on my list of races I'd like to run - the elevation is starts at 608 ft, lowest point 582 ft, highest point 627 ft with lots of little undulations. Which is perfect, in my opinion. Not totally pancake flat so your legs get a little variation (at Houston, I swear I welcomed the overpass hill at mile 13 because my legs were actually feeling crampy from so much flat). And this race is cheap! $97? That's a bargain.

Anyway, onto the numbers.

2015 vs 2016:

AG Group2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage2016 Qualifiers2016 AG TotalPercentage
F18-345442012.86%4038310.44%
F35-393018716.04%2418512.97%
F40-442215114.57%1813413.43%
F45-49248926.97%118712.64%
F50-54116317.46%6688.82%
F55-5973321.21%53713.51%
F60-6491752.94%31225.00%
F65-692366.67%050.00%
F70-74000.00%000.00%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-344428515.44%223276.73%
M35-392417813.48%121707.06%
M40-442319112.04%81684.76%
M45-492412818.75%2016212.35%
M50-542713520.00%1612912.40%
M55-59177921.52%6738.22%
M60-64143540.00%74615.22%
M65-6982236.36%51827.78%
M70-741333.33%010.00%
M75-79000.00%020.00%
M80+000.00%000.00%
Totals341201916.89%203200710.11%

Big drop in qualification (-40.47%). Finishers are about the same, but the number of qualifiers is way down.

Heat and marathons just don't go together.

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute113.23%136.40%
1-2 minutes236.74%157.39%
2-3 minutes205.87%157.39%
3-4 minutes185.28%136.40%
4-5 minutes164.69%83.94%
5-10 minutes8524.93%5024.63%
10-20 minutes9126.69%5929.06%
20> minutes7722.58%3014.78%
Totals341203

Squeaker Pack bigger in 2016 - no surprise there. 25.81% versus 31.53%.

It follows that we can expect a drop in the cutoff, the question is how much?

Totals for all top feeder races up to this point:

AG Group2016 Qualifiers20156 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3447823886312.30%40793745610.89%
F35-3921901547814.15%19981545712.93%
F40-4421961480714.83%18861432213.17%
F45-4922231073920.70%19791108317.86%
F50-541370701819.52%1316741617.75%
F55-59721354720.33%632356017.75%
F60-64324146522.12%331156821.11%
F65-699345620.39%10750521.19%
F70-742113116.03%1915212.50%
F75-7932611.54%1214.76%
F80+1425.00%41040.00%
M18-3442553454912.32%34613272310.58%
M35-3921531827311.78%18071762210.25%
M40-4424331990912.22%20581877110.96%
M45-4929691682117.65%25011682114.87%
M50-5422771324417.19%19221324314.51%
M55-591498804518.62%1342837916.02%
M60-64900426721.09%880441719.92%
M65-69399178422.37%384188720.35%
M70-7412260120.30%9759216.39%
M75-792515915.72%3017517.14%
M80+53613.89%94022.50%
Totals3096021022214.73%2684320622013.02%

So we see a decrease of 11.62% in the BQ rate year over year. Decrease in the total number of qualifiers is 13.3%.

Margin breakdown:

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute16965.48%15105.63%
1-2 minutes16865.45%15205.66%
2-3 minutes17025.50%14285.32%
3-4 minutes15485.00%13334.97%
4-5 minutes14634.73%12374.61%
5-10 minutes652321.07%574221.39%
10-20 minutes874828.26%7508
20> minutes759424.53%656524.46%
Totals3096026843

Squeaker Pack holding steady year over year, 26.15% versus slightly higher this year at 26.18%.

Looking at the feeder races up to this point in the 2016 qualification year, the number of runners that achieved a margin of 2:28 or better were 26,750.

We have 26,843 total qualifiers for the 2017 qualification year, so that translates to some kind of cutoff.

Sorting the qualifiers, descending from maximum margin to minimum margin of qualification, the 26,750th has a margin of...

4 seconds 

Again, we are in this weird near-zero territory. This year is going to be interesting being in the squeaker pack. There is obviously going to be variation as far as who decides to register. We have more qualifiers than slots but not everyone decides to go to Boston every year. It could be higher than 4 seconds if a higher percentage of folks decide to register, it could be lower if fewer decide to register. I'm feeling relatively confident with 2:37 (though you know I'll still be sweating those 9 days where we have to wait) but there is still this unknown, human choice factor of the "to run or not to run" that we can't totally quantify.

Ottawa Marathon will be next - same weekend as Bayshore and also hot, so I'm expecting to see a similar trend of fewer qualifiers.

6 comments:

  1. You make a great point regarding the unknown variables which influence how many BQers decide to register in a given year. When I qualified this year (with a 2:20 margin), a fellow runner I had just met congratulated me. I was beyond thrilled to have finally reached my goal, but I expressed to this other runner how much I hoped it would be enough to earn a bib for 2017. She expressed that she believed 2016 was something of an anomaly -- that more BQers registered because it was the 120th running.
    That said, I still worry 2:20 won't be a large enough margin. I understand the London marathon had decent weather this year -- also a large feeder race.
    In any case, thanks again for all your work on this project. You have given me hope.

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  2. Just ran Grandma's last week - didn't need to bq as I had done so at NOLA by 6:20, but there were a lot of tears as the weather reared it's ugly head once again - High temps, sunshine, and high humidity made it a black flag race.

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  3. According to Marathon Guide, only 7.5% of the runners at Grandma's had BQ's, compared to 18.7% last year. If this data is correct, it will likely drive the cutoff projection back to zero.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, I heard it was not a good day there. I loaded up the results for Ottawa, and there is a drop in BQ numbers there as well. I still have to compile the totals hopefully this weekend, then I'll get around the Grandma's. It's already close to 0, Ottawa is goign to push it down further. Thankfully Grandma's uses a provider that is similar to a couple other races so I'm hoping the formats are the same which will make it faster for me to download and parse it all.

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