Tuesday, June 28, 2016

New Top Feeder List from BAA Website

I had been waiting to see if the BAA would post an updated list of the top feeder races and looks like they finally did. And not surprisingly, it changed a bit. There are three changes to the list. I am inclined to include them in some form.

The old list (2015):

  • Berlin Marathon
  • St. George Marathon
  • Twin Cities Marathon
  • Portland Marathon
  • Chicago Marathon
  • Steamtown Marathon
  • Columbus Marathon
  • Baystate Marathon
  • Toronto Waterfront Marathon
  • Marine Corps Marathon
  • New York Marathon
  • Indianapolis Monumental Marathon
  • Richmond Marathon
  • Philadelphia Marathon
  • California International Marathon
  • Houston Marathon
  • Boston Marathon
  • Bayshore Marathon
  • Ottawa Marathon
  • Mountains 2 Beach Marathon
  • Grandma's Marathon
  • Santa Rosa Marathon
  • Big Cottonwood Marathon
  • Erie Marathon
  • Lehigh Valley Marathon

The new list (2016):

  • Boston Marathon
  • Chicago Marathon
  • New York City Marathon
  • Philadelphia Marathon
  • California International Marathon
  • St George Marathon
  • Grandma's Marathon
  • Erie Marathon
  • Twin Cities Marathon
  • Houston Marathon
  • Ottawa Marathon
  • Baystate Marathon
  • Berlin Marathon
  • Columbus Marathon
  • Indianapolis Monumental Marathon
  • Toronto Waterfront Marathon
  • Mountains 2 Beach Marathon
  • Richmond Marathon
  • Steamtown Marathon
  • Mohawk Hudson River
  • Marine Corps Marathon
  • Big Cottonwood Marathon
  • Santa Rosa Marathon
  • London Marathon
  • Wineglass Marathon
Portland, Bayshore. and Lehigh Valley have fallen off the list and replaced with Mohawk-Hudson River, London, and Wineglass.

I had Mohawk-Hudson River on my list as a bonus analysis race as it has a high percentage of qualification and over 250 qualifiers which makes it similar to some of the other smaller top feeders. And Wineglass is another race that I've run, and I wondered why it wasn't on the list of top feeders because the course and weather are (usually) very favorable. 

London is an interesting one. I wonder if it would be like Berlin, where the impact was low and, in fact, when it was included in the cut off analysis by last year's blogger, it yielded a misleadingly lower cutoff prediction. When she excluded the Berlin results, she got a cutoff prediction that was fairly close to the end result. The published result data for the 2015 Berlin Marathon makes it difficult for me to include because they didn't fully publish the ages of the finishers. Many results have, for example, "MH" so I can't get an age for that result. If it were just a few, that would be one thing, but there are many results with this issue (all the way up to like 5+ hour finish times, so it's not some elite designation. And you see that MH in the first page of results too, with sub 3 hour finishers).

Looking at London, we have a similar problem. They are publishing the under 40 group as 18-39 with no indication of the actual age of the finisher. There are two Boston qualifier age groups in there with 5 minutes of difference in the standard. Given that, I can't include this data in the analysis, especially considering the 18-39 age group makes up more than 40% of the qualifiers in the current dataset. That is too big of a group to not be able to properly categorize.

I am thinking I will pull in the results of Mohawk-Hudson River and Wineglass. I will do result totals across all the races (so this will yield 26 total races). Additionally, I will calculate the cutoff with the old feeder list (minus Berlin) and the new feeder list (minus London and Berlin). So we'll get 3 cutoff prediction values on which to pontificate.

Saturday, June 25, 2016

2016 Scotiabank Ottawa Marathon Analysis


This race has been around since 1975. I looked at the course a while back and it's fairly flat and fast. the issue is the that in late May, you might get unlucky and get a hot day like this year. Seems like last year many of the feeder races had great weather (except NYCM). This year, it's more likely that the weather is unfavorable (Boston, Bayshore, Ottawa, Grandmas).

Last year, looking at the totals, Ottawa had a better year than in 2014 and 2016. This year looks like 2014. I wonder if it was warm? Boston was warm in 2014 as well.

AG Group2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage2016 Qualifiers2016 AG TotalPercentage
F18-347347015.53%7245415.86%
F35-393928113.88%3726713.86%
F40-443928913.49%4727916.85%
F45-495621725.81%3719718.78%
F50-543916423.78%2917017.06%
F55-59196728.36%125820.69%
F60-641214.76%21414.29%
F65-691812.50%1520.00%
F70-74020.00%010.00%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-349067013.43%7661512.36%
M35-395945013.11%5444712.08%
M40-449656117.11%6749513.54%
M45-499446720.13%7143116.47%
M50-548138820.88%6036416.48%
M55-595923325.32%3320216.34%
M60-643111227.68%168818.18%
M65-69184045.00%103826.32%
M70-7471450.00%51926.32%
M75-79040.00%030.00%
M80+000.00%11100.00%
Totals802445817.99%630414815.19%

Nearly 18% of runners qualified for Boston in 2015. In 2016 the number of qualifiers is down 21%.

Margin2015Percentage2016Percentage
<1 minute566.98%436.83%
1-2 minutes445.49%365.71%
2-3 minutes384.74%426.67%
3-4 minutes404.99%436.83%
4-5 minutes415.11%274.29%
5-10 minutes16320.32%12720.16%
10-20 minutes21626.93%16626.35%
20> minutes20425.44%14623.17%
Totals802630

Squeaker Pack is bigger in 2016, 30.32% vs last year's 27.31%.

We know what this is going to do for the cutoff so let's cut to the chase.

AG Group2016 Qualifiers20156 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3448553933312.34%41513791010.95%
F35-3922291575914.14%20351572412.94%
F40-4422351509614.81%19331460113.24%
F45-4922791095620.80%20161128017.87%
F50-541409718219.62%1345758617.73%
F55-59740361420.48%644361817.80%
F60-64325148621.87%333158221.05%
F65-699446420.26%10851021.18%
F70-742113315.79%1915312.42%
F75-7932611.54%1214.76%
F80+1425.00%41040.00%
M18-3443453521912.34%35373333810.61%
M35-3922121872311.81%18611806910.30%
M40-4425292047012.35%21251926611.03%
M45-4930631728817.72%25721725214.91%
M50-5423581363217.30%19821360714.57%
M55-591557827818.81%1375858116.02%
M60-64931437921.26%896450519.89%
M65-69417182422.86%394192520.47%
M70-7412961520.98%10261116.69%
M75-792516315.34%3017816.85%
M80+53613.89%104124.39%
Totals3176221468014.80%2747321036813.06%

13.5% fewer qualifiers.

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute17525.52%15535.65%
1-2 minutes17305.45%15565.66%
2-3 minutes17405.48%14705.35%
3-4 minutes15885.00%13765.01%
4-5 minutes15044.74%12644.60%
5-10 minutes668621.05%586921.36%
10-20 minutes896428.22%767427.93%
20> minutes779824.55%671124.43%
Totals3176227473

Squeaker Pack getting bigger in BQ 2017 year with 26.28% over 26.18%. Even the distributions are looking very similar, with slightly more folks under 2 minutes of margin.

The number of runners achieving 2:28 or better in the 2016 qualification year was 27433. Which if you look at the total qualifiers, that's only a difference of 40 runners. The 27433rd runner sorting on margin descending has a margin of (this is funny)

1 second or 0:01

The conditions at Grandma's sound like they were worse than Bayshore and Ottawa. I'm fully expecting that we're back to 0 cutoff and then some once I compile that data.