The Big Kahuna: 2016 Boston Marathon Analysis

Boston. The raison d'etre of this blog.

This is the only time in my life that (a) I have purchased all my photos (though I must note that I waited a couple weeks and they sent out a 50% off coupon), and (b) I threw my hands up and felt pure joy crossing that finish line. I loved it so much I told myself I have to run it as many times as I can qualify (though I'm sure nothing is like your first Boston).

The bummer for many of us was the heat that day. I was a 8 minutes off my goal. Thus why I am running Mountains 2 Beach in less than a week's time.

The silver lining to the heat is what you'll see below.

Let's start by saying that the number of Boston qualifiers in the 2015 race was 12770.

In 2016 it was only 8994.

AG Group	2015 Qualifiers	2015 AG Total	Percentage	2016 Qualifiers	2016 AG Total	Percentage
F18-34	1850	4144	44.64%	1320	4068	32.45%
F35-39	902	1860	48.49%	669	1878	35.62%
F40-44	912	1984	45.97%	670	1938	34.57%
F45-49	958	1832	52.29%	744	1901	39.14%
F50-54	609	1206	50.50%	495	1254	39.47%
F55-59	306	607	50.41%	227	650	34.92%
F60-64	145	270	53.70%	141	345	40.87%
F65-69	42	91	46.15%	44	101	43.56%
F70-74	11	20	55.00%	6	27	22.22%
F75-79	2	2	100.00%	0	1	0.00%
F80+	0	1	0.00%	1	2	50.00%
M18-34	1673	3215	52.04%	1032	3041	33.94%
M35-39	895	1749	51.17%	523	1764	29.65%
M40-44	1005	2109	47.65%	640	1994	32.10%
M45-49	1251	2485	50.34%	840	2504	33.55%
M50-54	907	2055	44.14%	635	2032	31.25%
M55-59	667	1498	44.53%	471	1563	30.13%
M60-64	392	898	43.65%	328	993	33.03%
M65-69	175	403	43.42%	156	421	37.05%
M70-74	50	123	40.65%	33	118	27.97%
M75-79	15	36	41.67%	15	33	45.45%
M80+	3	10	30.00%	4	5	80.00%
Totals	12770	26598	48.01%	8994	26633	33.77%

I had to do a double take at the percentage of qualifiers (since most races we've analyzed are around the 10% mark) then realized, I was looking at Boston where the majority of the runners have qualified to get there. But that drop in qualification rate is very significant.

Margin	2016	Percentage	2017	Percentage
<1 minute	546	4.28%	469	5.21%
1-2 minutes	610	4.78%	497	5.53%
2-3 minutes	648	5.07%	487	5.41%
3-4 minutes	626	4.90%	462	5.14%
4-5 minutes	589	4.61%	464	5.16%
5-10 minutes	2810	22.00%	2061	22.92%
10-20 minutes	4026	31.53%	2747	30.54%
20> minutes	2915	22.83%	1807	20.09%
Totals	12770		8994

2015 Squeaker Pack: 23.64%
2016 Squeaker Pack: 26.45%

On to the totals...

AG Group	2016 Qualifiers	20156 AG Total	Percentage	2017 Qualifiers	2017 AG Total	Percentage
F18-34	4677	38218	12.24%	3960	36770	10.77%
F35-39	2117	15147	13.98%	1914	15096	12.68%
F40-44	2120	14500	14.62%	1816	14011	12.96%
F45-49	2148	10511	20.44%	1907	10847	17.58%
F50-54	1331	6878	19.35%	1280	7226	17.71%
F55-59	695	3471	20.02%	607	3474	17.47%
F60-64	313	1438	21.77%	322	1542	20.88%
F65-69	91	450	20.22%	103	491	20.98%
F70-74	21	129	16.28%	19	150	12.67%
F75-79	3	26	11.54%	1	21	4.76%
F80+	1	4	25.00%	4	10	40.00%
M18-34	4177	34108	12.25%	3382	32205	10.50%
M35-39	2103	17978	11.70%	1747	17305	10.10%
M40-44	2374	19559	12.14%	2005	18428	10.88%
M45-49	2901	16573	17.50%	2404	16482	14.59%
M50-54	2222	13003	17.09%	1855	12950	14.32%
M55-59	1460	7880	18.53%	1302	8196	15.89%
M60-64	876	4205	20.83%	861	4326	19.90%
M65-69	388	1743	22.26%	370	1842	20.09%
M70-74	117	589	19.86%	93	586	15.87%
M75-79	25	158	15.82%	30	169	17.75%
M80+	5	36	13.89%	9	40	22.50%
Totals	30165	206604	14.60%	25991	202167	12.86%

Boston 2016 hacked down the overall percentage. We have an 11.95% decrease in rate of qualification.

Margin	2016	Percentage	2017	Percentage
<1 minute	1652	5.48%	1472	5.66%
1-2 minutes	1633	5.41%	1474	5.67%
2-3 minutes	1639	5.43%	1365	5.25%
3-4 minutes	1489	4.94%	1284	4.94%
4-5 minutes	1411	4.68%	1187	4.57%
5-10 minutes	6332	20.99%	5513	21.21%
10-20 minutes	8568	28.40%	7306	28.11%
20> minutes	7441	24.67%	6390	24.59%
Totals	30165		25991

2016 Squeaker Pack: 25.94%
2017 Squeaker Pack: 26.09%

Check it out, even the Squeaker Pack got bigger.

So, what does this mean for the cutoff.

Honestly, I had to check and recheck my query because I didn't believe it.

For the 2016 qualification year, the number of runners in the races we've analyzed that achieved 2:28 or better is 26083.

That alone should tell you what you're about to read.

If you look at the table above, the total number of qualifiers thus far or 2017 is 25991.

That means we are back to square one. Even Steven!

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