Monday, May 16, 2016

2016 Houston Marathon Analysis

Sorry for the delay in getting this out. I started a new job this week which has been great as I was fairly miserable in the previous work I was doing. It has been a busy 3 weeks trying to help finish things up at my old job (not much slacking for me in my last two weeks), and then ramping up at a new job. Oh, and also training peak week as I attempt to re-qualify at Mountains 2 Beach in two weeks (Pfitzinger's 6 weeks between marathons plan is fairly demanding).

I very much want to get to the Boston Results before M2B for selfish reasons: I want to know, roughly, what the cut off situation might be.

Anyway, Houston.


I ran this race last year, undertrained, and pulled my 2nd fastest marathon out of my rear. The course is flat (except the end has some rollers, but, I actually liked that just to break up the monotony). Spectators are pretty good, I mean, not like a major. You have stretches wth no spectators. It's very well run. Has reasonable guaranteed qualification standards, and the weather is usually pretty good. I would definitely recommend this race. Just plan for your Garmin to track it long (not sure if the course is long, or if the buildings downtown mess things up, but I got like 26.5 miles at the end).

A reader commented on the last post that performances were better in 2017 and that is definitely true. This race basically brought the total qualifier numbers up to be nearly the same as 2016.

AG Group2016 Qualifiers2016 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-349910159.75%134108612.34%
F35-395553710.24%8963314.06%
F40-44474799.81%6051111.74%
F45-494830715.64%6536617.76%
F50-543520916.75%4224816.94%
F55-591410613.21%2111618.10%
F60-6484816.67%94320.93%
F65-692633.33%21020.00%
F70-74020.00%020.00%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-348411597.25%12113409.03%
M35-39516697.62%687159.51%
M40-44517227.06%737889.26%
M45-496360710.38%636749.35%
M50-546048312.42%6455111.62%
M55-594334812.36%5837715.38%
M60-641918310.38%2618414.13%
M65-6986312.70%158517.65%
M70-7441921.05%32213.64%
M75-791616.67%2540.00%
M80+000.00%2450.00%
Totals69269689.93%917776011.82%

That's a pretty big increase in qualifiers year over year.

The breakdown of margin:

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute507.23%545.89%
1-2 minutes375.35%495.34%
2-3 minutes456.50%454.91%
3-4 minutes486.94%424.58%
4-5 minutes405.78%606.54%
5-10 minutes13920.09%19821.59%
10-20 minutes16623.99%21323.23%
20> minutes16724.13%25627.92%
Totals692917

The Squeaker Pack shrunk from 31.79% to 27.26%!

You probably already know what trend the rest of the data is going to follow with the Houston numbers.


AG Group2016 Qualifiers20156 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-342827340740.082966484712640327020.0807290074
F35-391215132870.09144276361245132180.09418974126
F40-441208125160.096516458931146120730.09492255446
F45-49119086790.1371125706116389460.1300022356
F50-5472256720.127291960578559720.1314467515
F55-5938928640.135824022338028240.1345609065
F60-6416811680.143835616418111970.1512113617
F65-69493590.1364902507593900.1512820513
F70-74101090.09174311927131230.1056910569
F75-791240.041666666671200.05
F80+130.3333333333380.375
M18-342504308930.081053960442350291640.08057879578
M35-391208162290.074434654011224155410.07875941059
M40-441369174500.078452722061365164340.08305951077
M45-491650140880.1171209541564139780.111890113
M50-541315109480.12011326271220109180.1117420773
M55-5979363820.124255719283166330.1252826775
M60-6448433070.146356214153333330.1599159916
M65-6921313400.158955223921414210.1505981703
M70-74674660.143776824604680.1282051282
M75-79101220.08196721311151360.1102941176
M80+2260.076923076925350.1428571429
Totals173951800069.66%169971755349.68%

Houston bumped the qualification rate up! But because the participants have been down for most feeders, the number of qualifiers is still down by 2.29%.


Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute11060.0635814889310030.0590104136
1-2 minutes10230.058810002879770.05748073189
2-3 minutes9910.056970393798780.05165617462
3-4 minutes8630.049611957468220.04836147555
4-5 minutes8220.047254958327230.04253691828
5-10 minutes35220.202471974734520.2030946638
10-20 minutes45420.261109514245590.2682238042
20> minutes45260.260189709745830.2696358181
Totals1739516997

Squeaker Pack 2016: 27.62%
Squeaker Pack 2017: 25.90%

Nothing new there. It's actually a little bit bigger than the last update (after CIM it was 25.83%).

Alright, so clearly, the cutoff prediction is going to inch up.

The number of runners achieving 2:26 margin or better for the 2016 qualification year at this point in the feeder schedule was 14,777.

Taking the qualifiers for the 2017 qualification year, sorting on margin descending, the 14,777th runner has a margin of...

135 seconds or 2:15

We know that Boston was hot this year. Most people I know that ran, including myself, were anywhere from 5 minutes to 30+ minutes slower. The elites were ~7 minutes slower. I will be surprised if we don't see the cutoff inch down.


1 comment:

  1. Thanks Chacha. Very interested to see your update after Boston analysis.

    ReplyDelete