Tuesday, May 24, 2016

The Big Kahuna: 2016 Boston Marathon Analysis

Boston. The raison d'etre of this blog.


This is the only time in my life that (a) I have purchased all my photos (though I must note that I waited a couple weeks and they sent out a 50% off coupon), and (b) I threw my hands up and felt pure joy crossing that finish line. I loved it so much I told myself I have to run it as many times as I can qualify (though I'm sure nothing is like your first Boston).

The bummer for many of us was the heat that day. I was a 8 minutes off my goal. Thus why I am running Mountains 2 Beach in less than a week's time.

The silver lining to the heat is what you'll see below.

Let's start by saying that the number of Boston qualifiers in the 2015 race was 12770.

In 2016 it was only 8994.

AG Group2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage2016 Qualifiers2016 AG TotalPercentage
F18-341850414444.64%1320406832.45%
F35-39902186048.49%669187835.62%
F40-44912198445.97%670193834.57%
F45-49958183252.29%744190139.14%
F50-54609120650.50%495125439.47%
F55-5930660750.41%22765034.92%
F60-6414527053.70%14134540.87%
F65-69429146.15%4410143.56%
F70-74112055.00%62722.22%
F75-7922100.00%010.00%
F80+010.00%1250.00%
M18-341673321552.04%1032304133.94%
M35-39895174951.17%523176429.65%
M40-441005210947.65%640199432.10%
M45-491251248550.34%840250433.55%
M50-54907205544.14%635203231.25%
M55-59667149844.53%471156330.13%
M60-6439289843.65%32899333.03%
M65-6917540343.42%15642137.05%
M70-745012340.65%3311827.97%
M75-79153641.67%153345.45%
M80+31030.00%4580.00%
Totals127702659848.01%89942663333.77%

I had to do a double take at the percentage of qualifiers (since most races we've analyzed are around the 10% mark) then realized, I was looking at Boston where the majority of the runners have qualified to get there. But that drop in qualification rate is very significant.

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute5464.28%4695.21%
1-2 minutes6104.78%4975.53%
2-3 minutes6485.07%4875.41%
3-4 minutes6264.90%4625.14%
4-5 minutes5894.61%4645.16%
5-10 minutes281022.00%206122.92%
10-20 minutes402631.53%274730.54%
20> minutes291522.83%180720.09%
Totals127708994

2015 Squeaker Pack: 23.64%
2016 Squeaker Pack: 26.45%

On to the totals...

AG Group2016 Qualifiers20156 AG TotalPercentage2017 Qualifiers2017 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3446773821812.24%39603677010.77%
F35-3921171514713.98%19141509612.68%
F40-4421201450014.62%18161401112.96%
F45-4921481051120.44%19071084717.58%
F50-541331687819.35%1280722617.71%
F55-59695347120.02%607347417.47%
F60-64313143821.77%322154220.88%
F65-699145020.22%10349120.98%
F70-742112916.28%1915012.67%
F75-7932611.54%1214.76%
F80+1425.00%41040.00%
M18-3441773410812.25%33823220510.50%
M35-3921031797811.70%17471730510.10%
M40-4423741955912.14%20051842810.88%
M45-4929011657317.50%24041648214.59%
M50-5422221300317.09%18551295014.32%
M55-591460788018.53%1302819615.89%
M60-64876420520.83%861432619.90%
M65-69388174322.26%370184220.09%
M70-7411758919.86%9358615.87%
M75-792515815.82%3016917.75%
M80+53613.89%94022.50%
Totals3016520660414.60%2599120216712.86%

Boston 2016 hacked down the overall percentage. We have an 11.95% decrease in rate of qualification.

Margin2016Percentage2017Percentage
<1 minute16525.48%14725.66%
1-2 minutes16335.41%14745.67%
2-3 minutes16395.43%13655.25%
3-4 minutes14894.94%12844.94%
4-5 minutes14114.68%11874.57%
5-10 minutes633220.99%551321.21%
10-20 minutes856828.40%730628.11%
20> minutes744124.67%639024.59%
Totals3016525991

2016 Squeaker Pack: 25.94%
2017 Squeaker Pack: 26.09%

Check it out, even the Squeaker Pack got bigger.

So, what does this mean for the cutoff.

Honestly, I had to check and recheck my query because I didn't believe it.

For the 2016 qualification year, the number of runners in the races we've analyzed that achieved 2:28 or better is 26083.

That alone should tell you what you're about to read.

If you look at the table above, the total number of qualifiers thus far or 2017 is 25991.

That means we are back to square one. Even Steven!

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