Thursday, April 21, 2016

2015 California International Marathon Analysis

Hi All! I ran Boston on Monday and the heat was not runner friendly. I decided within the first 5K that it was not a good day to attempt my goal pace. So I took it easier. Around Wellesley, the temperatures started dropping from around 70, into the 60s, and finally into the 50s once we hit downtown Boston. I ran even splits (about 30 seconds slower in the second half), and overall am pleased but I didn't requalify. I am going to try again once, maybe twice before the windows closes.

Thankfully California International Marathon must use similar software to some others for race results because I was able to download the data and parse it relatively easily. From what I know of this race, the course and weather are usually favorable, and it sells out. I'm considering it myself when planning for 2018 BQ attempts.

Onto the data!

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3420684124.49%17984521.18%
F35-398144718.12%8543919.36%
F40-448645518.90%8342819.39%
F45-497039517.72%7636220.99%
F50-545123921.34%5425321.34%
F55-592613319.55%2614418.06%
F60-6465311.32%124626.09%
F65-6931816.67%71546.67%
F70-7411010.00%41330.77%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%11100.00%
M18-3419565529.77%17869925.46%
M35-398844819.64%7645316.78%
M40-448350216.53%11054820.07%
M45-4912956622.79%14255025.82%
M50-548838622.80%11144824.78%
M55-595221723.96%6625026.40%
M60-643012923.26%4614332.17%
M65-69136420.31%177024.29%
M70-7472035.00%72330.43%
M75-791714.29%2633.33%
M80+2450.00%1250.00%
Totals1218558921.79%1283573822.36%

So, runners faired better in 2015 over 2014 with higher percentage of qualifiers and a greater number of qualifiers (5.34% more qualifiers, to be specific).

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute746.08%1038.03%
1-2 minutes554.52%725.61%
2-3 minutes625.09%473.66%
3-4 minutes473.86%453.51%
4-5 minutes433.53%604.68%
5-10 minutes20216.58%19415.12%
10-20 minutes27722.74%29222.76%
20> minutes45837.60%47036.63%
Totals12181283

2014 Squeaker Pack: 23.07%
2015 Squeaker Pack: 25.49%

So this is a little different. the number of qualifiers with less than 5 minutes is higher in 2015. Squeaker Pack got bigger, with a big increase in the 0-1 minute margin.

What does this mean for the cut off? Well, with this race having an increase in qualifiers, we can expect the cutoff to remain the same or a modest increase.

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-342728330598.25%2506316167.93%
F35-391160127509.10%1156125859.19%
F40-441161120379.65%1086115629.39%
F45-491142837213.64%1098858012.80%
F50-54687546312.58%743572412.98%
F55-59375275813.60%359270813.26%
F60-64160112014.29%172115414.90%
F65-694735313.31%5738015.00%
F70-74101079.35%1312110.74%
F75-791244.17%1205.00%
F80+1333.33%3837.50%
M18-342420297348.14%2229278248.01%
M35-391157155607.44%1156148267.80%
M40-441318167287.88%1292156468.26%
M45-4915871348111.77%15011330411.28%
M50-5412551046511.99%11561036711.15%
M55-59750603412.43%773625612.36%
M60-64465312414.88%507314916.10%
M65-69205127716.05%199133614.90%
M70-746344714.09%5744612.78%
M75-7991167.76%131319.92%
M80+2267.69%3319.68%
Totals167031730389.65%160801677749.58%

Year over year, we are starting to converge into similar results. Now we have only ~600 qualifier difference translating to less than 0.1% of percentage. What can impact the actual cutoff is the distribution of qualifiers within the 0-5 minute margin.

Looking at the margin distribution totals:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute10566.32%9495.90%
1-2 minutes9865.90%9285.77%
2-3 minutes9465.66%8335.18%
3-4 minutes8154.88%7804.85%
4-5 minutes7824.68%6634.12%
5-10 minutes338320.25%325420.24%
10-20 minutes437626.20%434627.03%
20> minutes435926.10%432726.91%
Totals1670316080

2014 Squeaker Pack: 27.45%
2015 Squeaker Pack: 25.83%

While the 0-5 minute margin group has shrunk, the ratios of how many fall into the 1 minute buckets doesn't look ver different. In fact, the ratios skew more towards the 0-2 minutes than they did before.

Alright so what does this mean for the cutoff?

The total number of runners achieving better than 147 seconds of margin in 2014 for the top feeder races analyzed to date is 14197.

Taking the 2015 qualifiers, sorting on margin descending, the 14197th runner has a margin of...

120 seconds or 2:00

This is not all that surprising.

Houston is next, I'm not sure how the weather conditions were for that race. The data will tell us the story. Boston, we know was hot and significantly worse than last year. My guess is that we're going to see the cutoff go down after we look at that data.




3 comments:

  1. thanks for doing this. Yes, curious how it will all fall out after Houston and Boston #'s. Houston seemed to have more qualifiers this year compared to last year based on what I've read online but Boston was obviously down (how many is the question). Look forward to next update. Again, looks good for me at 2 min, 41 sec but we shall see. thx

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  2. According to findmymarathon.com, only 8915 BQ at Boston this year compared to almost 13000 last year. I am just wondering if you can breakdown the LA marathon that was ran on 2/14/2016(a month earlier than last due to the Olympic trails). They seem to have double their usual number of BQ(850). It's not a seeder race but could change the results.

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  3. Thanks for doing this analysis. I was a squeaker in 2016, and now more of a squeaker for 2017! I'm checking your blog every six hours for the Boston effect. I was one of the people suffering that day. I'm also looking forward to your next post!

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