Richmond Marathon 2015 Results Analysis

Apparently Anthem Richmond Marathon is America's Friendliest Marathon. How does a marathon get to be the friendliest? Did they take a survey, or do they just fancy themselves to be as such? I'm still trying to figure out how a marathon is friendly. Spectators? Good organization? I say it's friendly if the spectators don't spit on you and try to trip you!

This is kind of how I feel about San Diego calling itself America's Finest City (I've lived here 9 years). Who decided that? I don't know, seems rather presumptuous.

But I digress.

This race's results for 2015 appear to be following the trend we were seeing before MCM and NYCM spoiled the party ;-)

AG Group	2014 Qualifiers	2014 AG Total	Percentage	2015 Qualifiers	2015 AG Total	Percentage
F18-34	117	1152	10.16%	87	1030	8.45%
F35-39	37	468	7.91%	38	402	9.45%
F40-44	42	448	9.38%	29	355	8.17%
F45-49	32	278	11.51%	32	266	12.03%
F50-54	15	164	9.15%	25	166	15.06%
F55-59	11	91	12.09%	17	80	21.25%
F60-64	6	28	21.43%	4	24	16.67%
F65-69	2	6	33.33%	2	10	20.00%
F70-74	1	2	50.00%	1	5	20.00%
F75-79	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%
F80+	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%
M18-34	80	802	9.98%	69	674	10.24%
M35-39	18	348	5.17%	25	305	8.20%
M40-44	41	406	10.10%	21	310	6.77%
M45-49	36	355	10.14%	33	310	10.65%
M50-54	25	261	9.58%	22	264	8.33%
M55-59	22	152	14.47%	23	173	13.29%
M60-64	16	81	19.75%	13	85	15.29%
M65-69	10	35	28.57%	7	28	25.00%
M70-74	2	18	11.11%	2	17	11.76%
M75-79	0	3	0.00%	0	6	0.00%
M80+	0	0	0.00%	0	1	0.00%
Totals	513	5098	10.06%	450	4511	9.98%

Fewer finishers, lower qualification rate, fewer qualifiers. 12.28% fewer qualifiers, though in this race that only accounts for about 60 qualification spots. I'm guessing we're not going to see much more than a second or so decrease in the cutoff with a race this small.

Margin	2014	Percentage	2015	Percentage
<1 minute	33	6.43%	29	6.44%
1-2 minutes	40	7.80%	28	6.22%
2-3 minutes	34	6.63%	38	8.44%
3-4 minutes	30	5.85%	22	4.89%
4-5 minutes	24	4.68%	18	4.00%
5-10 minutes	116	22.61%	99	22.00%
10-20 minutes	140	27.29%	114	25.33%
20> minutes	96	18.71%	102	22.67%
Totals	513		450

And I'm sounding like a broken record here, but Squeaker Pack is smaller, though this race compared to the others we've seen so far has one of the the largest under 5 minute groups. In 2014 it was 31.38%. In 2015, ts shrank a bit to 30% even.

Alright, moving onto the totals.

AG Group	2014 Qualifiers	2014 AG Total	Percentage	2015 Qualifiers	2015 AG Total	Percentage
F18-34	2244	29220	7.68%	2045	28091	7.28%
F35-39	982	11383	8.63%	967	11353	8.52%
F40-44	995	10774	9.24%	943	10474	9.00%
F45-49	983	7422	13.24%	940	7716	12.18%
F50-54	587	4874	12.04%	641	5165	12.41%
F55-59	331	2459	13.46%	314	2440	12.87%
F60-64	145	1015	14.29%	151	1058	14.27%
F65-69	44	324	13.58%	48	349	13.75%
F70-74	9	96	9.38%	9	106	8.49%
F75-79	1	23	4.35%	1	18	5.56%
F80+	1	3	33.33%	1	6	16.67%
M18-34	1955	26327	7.43%	1790	24712	7.24%
M35-39	964	14040	6.87%	984	13398	7.34%
M40-44	1134	15100	7.51%	1087	14139	7.69%
M45-49	1311	11979	10.94%	1251	11963	10.46%
M50-54	1064	9382	11.34%	962	9381	10.25%
M55-59	635	5418	11.72%	649	5638	11.51%
M60-64	406	2814	14.43%	431	2858	15.08%
M65-69	183	1160	15.78%	168	1190	14.12%
M70-74	54	407	13.27%	49	411	11.92%
M75-79	8	102	7.84%	11	117	9.40%
M80+	0	19	0.00%	2	28	7.14%
Totals	14036	154341	9.09%	13444	150611	8.93%

Looks very similar to the last totals we did after Monumental.

Margin	2014	Percentage	2015	Percentage
<1 minute	884	6.30%	772	5.74%
1-2 minutes	847	6.03%	782	5.82%
2-3 minutes	790	5.63%	697	5.18%
3-4 minutes	709	5.05%	670	4.98%
4-5 minutes	658	4.69%	552	4.11%
5-10 minutes	2907	20.71%	2806	20.87%
10-20 minutes	3746	26.69%	3716	27.64%
20> minutes	3495	24.90%	3449	25.65%
Totals	14036		13444

2014 Squeaker Pack: 27.70%
2015 Squeaker Pack: 25.83%

Onto the prediction calculation.

In 2014, the numbers of runners achieving the 2016 cutoff of 147 seconds for the races analyzed was 11922.

Looking at 2015, taking the 11922th runner and sorting on margin, descending, we get the following:

117 seconds or 1:57 seconds

Not too surprising: we have a very small decrease in cutoff prediction. Next race to analyze is Philly and I believe that's a good sized race so it may prove to be a more interesting update.