This is kind of how I feel about San Diego calling itself America's Finest City (I've lived here 9 years). Who decided that? I don't know, seems rather presumptuous.
But I digress.
This race's results for 2015 appear to be following the trend we were seeing before MCM and NYCM spoiled the party ;-)
AG Group | 2014 Qualifiers | 2014 AG Total | Percentage | 2015 Qualifiers | 2015 AG Total | Percentage |
F18-34 | 117 | 1152 | 10.16% | 87 | 1030 | 8.45% |
F35-39 | 37 | 468 | 7.91% | 38 | 402 | 9.45% |
F40-44 | 42 | 448 | 9.38% | 29 | 355 | 8.17% |
F45-49 | 32 | 278 | 11.51% | 32 | 266 | 12.03% |
F50-54 | 15 | 164 | 9.15% | 25 | 166 | 15.06% |
F55-59 | 11 | 91 | 12.09% | 17 | 80 | 21.25% |
F60-64 | 6 | 28 | 21.43% | 4 | 24 | 16.67% |
F65-69 | 2 | 6 | 33.33% | 2 | 10 | 20.00% |
F70-74 | 1 | 2 | 50.00% | 1 | 5 | 20.00% |
F75-79 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
F80+ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
M18-34 | 80 | 802 | 9.98% | 69 | 674 | 10.24% |
M35-39 | 18 | 348 | 5.17% | 25 | 305 | 8.20% |
M40-44 | 41 | 406 | 10.10% | 21 | 310 | 6.77% |
M45-49 | 36 | 355 | 10.14% | 33 | 310 | 10.65% |
M50-54 | 25 | 261 | 9.58% | 22 | 264 | 8.33% |
M55-59 | 22 | 152 | 14.47% | 23 | 173 | 13.29% |
M60-64 | 16 | 81 | 19.75% | 13 | 85 | 15.29% |
M65-69 | 10 | 35 | 28.57% | 7 | 28 | 25.00% |
M70-74 | 2 | 18 | 11.11% | 2 | 17 | 11.76% |
M75-79 | 0 | 3 | 0.00% | 0 | 6 | 0.00% |
M80+ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 1 | 0.00% |
Totals | 513 | 5098 | 10.06% | 450 | 4511 | 9.98% |
Fewer finishers, lower qualification rate, fewer qualifiers. 12.28% fewer qualifiers, though in this race that only accounts for about 60 qualification spots. I'm guessing we're not going to see much more than a second or so decrease in the cutoff with a race this small.
Margin | 2014 | Percentage | 2015 | Percentage |
<1 minute | 33 | 6.43% | 29 | 6.44% |
1-2 minutes | 40 | 7.80% | 28 | 6.22% |
2-3 minutes | 34 | 6.63% | 38 | 8.44% |
3-4 minutes | 30 | 5.85% | 22 | 4.89% |
4-5 minutes | 24 | 4.68% | 18 | 4.00% |
5-10 minutes | 116 | 22.61% | 99 | 22.00% |
10-20 minutes | 140 | 27.29% | 114 | 25.33% |
20> minutes | 96 | 18.71% | 102 | 22.67% |
Totals | 513 | 450 |
And I'm sounding like a broken record here, but Squeaker Pack is smaller, though this race compared to the others we've seen so far has one of the the largest under 5 minute groups. In 2014 it was 31.38%. In 2015, ts shrank a bit to 30% even.
Alright, moving onto the totals.
AG Group | 2014 Qualifiers | 2014 AG Total | Percentage | 2015 Qualifiers | 2015 AG Total | Percentage |
F18-34 | 2244 | 29220 | 7.68% | 2045 | 28091 | 7.28% |
F35-39 | 982 | 11383 | 8.63% | 967 | 11353 | 8.52% |
F40-44 | 995 | 10774 | 9.24% | 943 | 10474 | 9.00% |
F45-49 | 983 | 7422 | 13.24% | 940 | 7716 | 12.18% |
F50-54 | 587 | 4874 | 12.04% | 641 | 5165 | 12.41% |
F55-59 | 331 | 2459 | 13.46% | 314 | 2440 | 12.87% |
F60-64 | 145 | 1015 | 14.29% | 151 | 1058 | 14.27% |
F65-69 | 44 | 324 | 13.58% | 48 | 349 | 13.75% |
F70-74 | 9 | 96 | 9.38% | 9 | 106 | 8.49% |
F75-79 | 1 | 23 | 4.35% | 1 | 18 | 5.56% |
F80+ | 1 | 3 | 33.33% | 1 | 6 | 16.67% |
M18-34 | 1955 | 26327 | 7.43% | 1790 | 24712 | 7.24% |
M35-39 | 964 | 14040 | 6.87% | 984 | 13398 | 7.34% |
M40-44 | 1134 | 15100 | 7.51% | 1087 | 14139 | 7.69% |
M45-49 | 1311 | 11979 | 10.94% | 1251 | 11963 | 10.46% |
M50-54 | 1064 | 9382 | 11.34% | 962 | 9381 | 10.25% |
M55-59 | 635 | 5418 | 11.72% | 649 | 5638 | 11.51% |
M60-64 | 406 | 2814 | 14.43% | 431 | 2858 | 15.08% |
M65-69 | 183 | 1160 | 15.78% | 168 | 1190 | 14.12% |
M70-74 | 54 | 407 | 13.27% | 49 | 411 | 11.92% |
M75-79 | 8 | 102 | 7.84% | 11 | 117 | 9.40% |
M80+ | 0 | 19 | 0.00% | 2 | 28 | 7.14% |
Totals | 14036 | 154341 | 9.09% | 13444 | 150611 | 8.93% |
Looks very similar to the last totals we did after Monumental.
Margin | 2014 | Percentage | 2015 | Percentage |
<1 minute | 884 | 6.30% | 772 | 5.74% |
1-2 minutes | 847 | 6.03% | 782 | 5.82% |
2-3 minutes | 790 | 5.63% | 697 | 5.18% |
3-4 minutes | 709 | 5.05% | 670 | 4.98% |
4-5 minutes | 658 | 4.69% | 552 | 4.11% |
5-10 minutes | 2907 | 20.71% | 2806 | 20.87% |
10-20 minutes | 3746 | 26.69% | 3716 | 27.64% |
20> minutes | 3495 | 24.90% | 3449 | 25.65% |
Totals | 14036 | 13444 |
2014 Squeaker Pack: 27.70%
2015 Squeaker Pack: 25.83%
Onto the prediction calculation.
In 2014, the numbers of runners achieving the 2016 cutoff of 147 seconds for the races analyzed was 11922.
Looking at 2015, taking the 11922th runner and sorting on margin, descending, we get the following:
117 seconds or 1:57 seconds
Not too surprising: we have a very small decrease in cutoff prediction. Next race to analyze is Philly and I believe that's a good sized race so it may prove to be a more interesting update.
Chacha, just found your blog today. This whole BQ thing is such a cluster for those of us in the "squeaker pack", so your data is much appreciated. I'm running Wrightsville Beach on March 20 and am targeting a BQ+5 min pace, hoping I strike the right balance between not leaving time on the table but still fast enough to qualify. After seeing your data, I'm going to keep my planned pace as is. Thanks again!!
ReplyDeleteI saw that there were over 10% less marathon runners in Philly this year, hopefully this hold true for qualifiers as well!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the analysis ! Will you be including the Phoenix Marathon ?
ReplyDelete