Monday, March 7, 2016

Richmond Marathon 2015 Results Analysis

Apparently Anthem Richmond Marathon is America's Friendliest Marathon. How does a marathon get to be the friendliest? Did they take a survey, or do they just fancy themselves to be as such? I'm still trying to figure out how a marathon is friendly. Spectators? Good organization? I say it's friendly if the spectators don't spit on you and try to trip you!

This is kind of how I feel about San Diego calling itself America's Finest City (I've lived here 9 years). Who decided that? I don't know, seems rather presumptuous.

But I digress.

This race's results for 2015 appear to be following the trend we were seeing before MCM and NYCM spoiled the party ;-)

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-34117115210.16%8710308.45%
F35-39374687.91%384029.45%
F40-44424489.38%293558.17%
F45-493227811.51%3226612.03%
F50-54151649.15%2516615.06%
F55-59119112.09%178021.25%
F60-6462821.43%42416.67%
F65-692633.33%21020.00%
F70-741250.00%1520.00%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-34808029.98%6967410.24%
M35-39183485.17%253058.20%
M40-444140610.10%213106.77%
M45-493635510.14%3331010.65%
M50-54252619.58%222648.33%
M55-592215214.47%2317313.29%
M60-64168119.75%138515.29%
M65-69103528.57%72825.00%
M70-7421811.11%21711.76%
M75-79030.00%060.00%
M80+000.00%010.00%
Totals513509810.06%45045119.98%

Fewer finishers, lower qualification rate, fewer qualifiers. 12.28% fewer qualifiers, though in this race that only accounts for about 60 qualification spots. I'm guessing we're not going to see much more than a second or so decrease in the cutoff with a race this small.

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute336.43%296.44%
1-2 minutes407.80%286.22%
2-3 minutes346.63%388.44%
3-4 minutes305.85%224.89%
4-5 minutes244.68%184.00%
5-10 minutes11622.61%9922.00%
10-20 minutes14027.29%11425.33%
20> minutes9618.71%10222.67%
Totals513450

And I'm sounding like a broken record here, but Squeaker Pack is smaller, though this race compared to the others we've seen so far has one of the the largest under 5 minute groups. In 2014 it was 31.38%. In 2015, ts shrank a bit to 30% even.

Alright, moving onto the totals.

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-342244292207.68%2045280917.28%
F35-39982113838.63%967113538.52%
F40-44995107749.24%943104749.00%
F45-49983742213.24%940771612.18%
F50-54587487412.04%641516512.41%
F55-59331245913.46%314244012.87%
F60-64145101514.29%151105814.27%
F65-694432413.58%4834913.75%
F70-749969.38%91068.49%
F75-791234.35%1185.56%
F80+1333.33%1616.67%
M18-341955263277.43%1790247127.24%
M35-39964140406.87%984133987.34%
M40-441134151007.51%1087141397.69%
M45-4913111197910.94%12511196310.46%
M50-541064938211.34%962938110.25%
M55-59635541811.72%649563811.51%
M60-64406281414.43%431285815.08%
M65-69183116015.78%168119014.12%
M70-745440713.27%4941111.92%
M75-7981027.84%111179.40%
M80+0190.00%2287.14%
Totals140361543419.09%134441506118.93%

Looks very similar to the last totals we did after Monumental.

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute8846.30%7725.74%
1-2 minutes8476.03%7825.82%
2-3 minutes7905.63%6975.18%
3-4 minutes7095.05%6704.98%
4-5 minutes6584.69%5524.11%
5-10 minutes290720.71%280620.87%
10-20 minutes374626.69%371627.64%
20> minutes349524.90%344925.65%
Totals1403613444

2014 Squeaker Pack: 27.70%
2015 Squeaker Pack: 25.83%

Onto the prediction calculation.

In 2014, the numbers of runners achieving the 2016 cutoff of 147 seconds for the races analyzed was 11922.

Looking at 2015, taking the 11922th runner and sorting on margin, descending, we get the following:

117 seconds or 1:57 seconds

Not too surprising: we have a very small decrease in cutoff prediction. Next race to analyze is Philly and I believe that's a good sized race so it may prove to be a more interesting update.

3 comments:

  1. Chacha, just found your blog today. This whole BQ thing is such a cluster for those of us in the "squeaker pack", so your data is much appreciated. I'm running Wrightsville Beach on March 20 and am targeting a BQ+5 min pace, hoping I strike the right balance between not leaving time on the table but still fast enough to qualify. After seeing your data, I'm going to keep my planned pace as is. Thanks again!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. I saw that there were over 10% less marathon runners in Philly this year, hopefully this hold true for qualifiers as well!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for the analysis ! Will you be including the Phoenix Marathon ?

    ReplyDelete