Monday, March 28, 2016

2015 Philadelphia Marathon: Cutoff Update

City of Brotherly Love! Occasionally we have to fly into PHL to visit my husband's family but usually, we end up flying into Baltimore because it ends up cheaper and it's the same 3 hour ride into the middle of nowhere central PA :)

This marathon is in the top 10 largest in the nation and has been going on since 1954! I feel like this one should be on my to-do list but, man, there are just too many good marathons to do and not enough time!

This marathon followed much of the same trends we have been seeing with fewer finishers and thus, fewer qualifiers.

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3427829989.27%282268010.52%
F35-399792010.54%10479313.11%
F40-44808089.90%606609.09%
F45-498955516.04%8250216.33%
F50-544935014.00%4830615.69%
F55-591816610.84%1912415.32%
F60-6495217.31%95018.00%
F65-690110.00%21612.50%
F70-74010.00%020.00%
F75-79010.00%020.00%
F80+000.00%11100.00%
M18-3427027529.81%261241310.82%
M35-3910510729.79%969759.85%
M40-4410111268.97%959599.91%
M45-4914793615.71%10879113.65%
M50-5410369714.78%8353815.43%
M55-596339915.79%5836815.76%
M60-642918116.02%3014820.27%
M65-6995316.98%147618.42%
M70-7422010.00%1128.33%
M75-79070.00%080.00%
M80+030.00%010.00%
Totals14491310811.05%13531142511.84%

With this race, though, the qualification rate was up so the difference in total qualifiers is less than 100. This corresponds to a decrease of 6.6%.

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute986.76%745.47%
1-2 minutes845.80%745.47%
2-3 minutes946.49%896.58%
3-4 minutes594.07%654.80%
4-5 minutes815.59%513.77%
5-10 minutes27418.91%25418.77%
10-20 minutes35324.36%33824.98%
20> minutes40628.02%40830.16%
Totals14491353

No surprise here, The Squeaker Pack shrank from 28.71% to 26.09%.

Overall Numbers

Given where we are at in the analysis, it's going to take a whole lot more than the above numbers to move the needle either way.

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-342522322187.83%2327307717.56%
F35-391079123038.77%1071121468.82%
F40-441075115829.28%1003111349.01%
F45-491072797713.44%1022821812.44%
F50-54636522412.17%689547112.59%
F55-59349262513.30%333256412.99%
F60-64154106714.43%160110814.44%
F65-694433513.13%5036513.70%
F70-749979.28%91088.33%
F75-791244.17%1205.00%
F80+1333.33%2728.57%
M18-342225290797.65%2051271257.56%
M35-391069151127.07%1080143737.51%
M40-441235162267.61%1182150987.83%
M45-4914581291511.29%13591275410.66%
M50-5411671007911.58%1045991910.54%
M55-59698581712.00%707600611.77%
M60-64435299514.52%461300615.34%
M65-69192121315.83%182126614.38%
M70-745642713.11%5042311.82%
M75-7981097.34%111258.80%
M80+0220.00%2296.90%
Totals154851674499.25%147971620369.13%

We are looking at a 4.4% decrease in qualifiers, year over year.

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute9826.34%8465.72%
1-2 minutes9316.01%8565.78%
2-3 minutes8845.71%7865.31%
3-4 minutes7684.96%7354.97%
4-5 minutes7394.77%6034.08%
5-10 minutes318120.54%306020.68%
10-20 minutes409926.47%405427.40%
20> minutes390125.19%385726.07%
Totals1548514797

The Squeaker Pack shrank from 27.79% to 25.86%. So, as I state pretty much at every update, more folks qualifying with more than 5 minutes of margin.

What does this mean for the cutoff? Sorry to say that the update is a bit of a snoozer.

The number of runners in the previous qualification year achieving 147 seconds of margin was 13,137. Taking this year's data up to this point, the 13,137th runner has a margin of

1:57 or 117 seconds

No change with the addition of Philly.

12 comments:

  1. Excellent work. I'm at 2 min 41 for BQ '17 so very curious how all goes (wondering if there's an early sept. extra race I will have to do so keenly interested). Assuming Houston is next and then, of course, Boston '16. Keep up the great analysis. Thanks!!

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  2. Thanks chacha, appreciate you posting and keeping us updated!

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  3. have you had a chance to go over the Boston 2016 results?

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    Replies
    1. Considering I just finished it myself yesterday afternoon, no I haven't. It was hot the first half and most people I know ran much slower so I am guessing it's not going to push the cut off up. The next race to analyze is Cal Intl. Boston is after Houston results.

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    2. Congrats on your Boston run chacha!

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  4. I'll be interested in your update after the Boston results. According to Marathon Guide, at Boston 2015, 12,767 runners re-qualified at the race. Despite the miserable weather, the cool temperatures were conducive to a fast race. At Boston 2016, only 4,324 runners re-qualified, due to the heat. Having 8,443 less runners re-qualifying has huge implications on the 2017 cutoff. Potentially, there will not even be a cutoff, and if there is one, it should be much more generous than last year. I don't recall if your analysis attempts to give weighting to the race, but if it did, I believe the immediately prior Boston race would deserve the highest weighting.

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    1. Marathon Guide is grossly missaccurate regarding those who didnt qualify. The office number is right around 9500 BQ qualifiers. At over 3,000 less qualifiers it should definitely have a huge impact. My conservative guess is that it will move the cutoff to around - 60sec mark and that is with factoring in some runners will attempt to re-BQ at other races leading up to September. Their dilemma is that we are starting the summer months so which adds to the difficulty.

      CHACHA - Congrats on running boston!! If the elites suffered because of the conditions, i can only imagine how everyone else fared. Congrats again and looking forward to your updates!

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    2. Just curious Gregory, where did you find official number of about 9500 BQ for this year's Boston race?

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    3. http://community.runnersworld.com/topic/bq-for-2017-analysis

      It is a another forum I follow that tries to gauge the BQ cut off time (they have almost gone as far as to say there will be no cut off time this year). It is great to see the different approaches and methodologies.

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    4. I still think there will be some kind of cut off. 2014 had similar temps. Cut off was 1:02.

      Thanks for the congrats! I didn't run my goal but I also didn't crash. Ran even splits and finished 3:43 (my standard is 3:40). Considering the conditions I am pleased with my effort!

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  5. Thank you for all of the work you put into this blog! I am really curious with all of the late fall and winter Marathons that are completed, and now the heat show that was Boston two days ago how the stats will change for Boston 2017. Look forward to your next post!

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