2015 Philadelphia Marathon: Cutoff Update

City of Brotherly Love! Occasionally we have to fly into PHL to visit my husband's family but usually, we end up flying into Baltimore because it ends up cheaper and it's the same 3 hour ride into the middle of nowhere central PA :)

This marathon is in the top 10 largest in the nation and has been going on since 1954! I feel like this one should be on my to-do list but, man, there are just too many good marathons to do and not enough time!

This marathon followed much of the same trends we have been seeing with fewer finishers and thus, fewer qualifiers.

AG Group	2014 Qualifiers	2014 AG Total	Percentage	2015 Qualifiers	2015 AG Total	Percentage
F18-34	278	2998	9.27%	282	2680	10.52%
F35-39	97	920	10.54%	104	793	13.11%
F40-44	80	808	9.90%	60	660	9.09%
F45-49	89	555	16.04%	82	502	16.33%
F50-54	49	350	14.00%	48	306	15.69%
F55-59	18	166	10.84%	19	124	15.32%
F60-64	9	52	17.31%	9	50	18.00%
F65-69	0	11	0.00%	2	16	12.50%
F70-74	0	1	0.00%	0	2	0.00%
F75-79	0	1	0.00%	0	2	0.00%
F80+	0	0	0.00%	1	1	100.00%
M18-34	270	2752	9.81%	261	2413	10.82%
M35-39	105	1072	9.79%	96	975	9.85%
M40-44	101	1126	8.97%	95	959	9.91%
M45-49	147	936	15.71%	108	791	13.65%
M50-54	103	697	14.78%	83	538	15.43%
M55-59	63	399	15.79%	58	368	15.76%
M60-64	29	181	16.02%	30	148	20.27%
M65-69	9	53	16.98%	14	76	18.42%
M70-74	2	20	10.00%	1	12	8.33%
M75-79	0	7	0.00%	0	8	0.00%
M80+	0	3	0.00%	0	1	0.00%
Totals	1449	13108	11.05%	1353	11425	11.84%

With this race, though, the qualification rate was up so the difference in total qualifiers is less than 100. This corresponds to a decrease of 6.6%.

Margin	2014	Percentage	2015	Percentage
<1 minute	98	6.76%	74	5.47%
1-2 minutes	84	5.80%	74	5.47%
2-3 minutes	94	6.49%	89	6.58%
3-4 minutes	59	4.07%	65	4.80%
4-5 minutes	81	5.59%	51	3.77%
5-10 minutes	274	18.91%	254	18.77%
10-20 minutes	353	24.36%	338	24.98%
20> minutes	406	28.02%	408	30.16%
Totals	1449		1353

No surprise here, The Squeaker Pack shrank from 28.71% to 26.09%.

Overall Numbers

Given where we are at in the analysis, it's going to take a whole lot more than the above numbers to move the needle either way.

AG Group	2014 Qualifiers	2014 AG Total	Percentage	2015 Qualifiers	2015 AG Total	Percentage
F18-34	2522	32218	7.83%	2327	30771	7.56%
F35-39	1079	12303	8.77%	1071	12146	8.82%
F40-44	1075	11582	9.28%	1003	11134	9.01%
F45-49	1072	7977	13.44%	1022	8218	12.44%
F50-54	636	5224	12.17%	689	5471	12.59%
F55-59	349	2625	13.30%	333	2564	12.99%
F60-64	154	1067	14.43%	160	1108	14.44%
F65-69	44	335	13.13%	50	365	13.70%
F70-74	9	97	9.28%	9	108	8.33%
F75-79	1	24	4.17%	1	20	5.00%
F80+	1	3	33.33%	2	7	28.57%
M18-34	2225	29079	7.65%	2051	27125	7.56%
M35-39	1069	15112	7.07%	1080	14373	7.51%
M40-44	1235	16226	7.61%	1182	15098	7.83%
M45-49	1458	12915	11.29%	1359	12754	10.66%
M50-54	1167	10079	11.58%	1045	9919	10.54%
M55-59	698	5817	12.00%	707	6006	11.77%
M60-64	435	2995	14.52%	461	3006	15.34%
M65-69	192	1213	15.83%	182	1266	14.38%
M70-74	56	427	13.11%	50	423	11.82%
M75-79	8	109	7.34%	11	125	8.80%
M80+	0	22	0.00%	2	29	6.90%
Totals	15485	167449	9.25%	14797	162036	9.13%

We are looking at a 4.4% decrease in qualifiers, year over year.

Margin	2014	Percentage	2015	Percentage
<1 minute	982	6.34%	846	5.72%
1-2 minutes	931	6.01%	856	5.78%
2-3 minutes	884	5.71%	786	5.31%
3-4 minutes	768	4.96%	735	4.97%
4-5 minutes	739	4.77%	603	4.08%
5-10 minutes	3181	20.54%	3060	20.68%
10-20 minutes	4099	26.47%	4054	27.40%
20> minutes	3901	25.19%	3857	26.07%
Totals	15485		14797

The Squeaker Pack shrank from 27.79% to 25.86%. So, as I state pretty much at every update, more folks qualifying with more than 5 minutes of margin.

What does this mean for the cutoff? Sorry to say that the update is a bit of a snoozer.

The number of runners in the previous qualification year achieving 147 seconds of margin was 13,137. Taking this year's data up to this point, the 13,137th runner has a margin of

1:57 or 117 seconds

No change with the addition of Philly.