Monday, March 28, 2016

2015 Philadelphia Marathon: Cutoff Update

City of Brotherly Love! Occasionally we have to fly into PHL to visit my husband's family but usually, we end up flying into Baltimore because it ends up cheaper and it's the same 3 hour ride into the middle of nowhere central PA :)

This marathon is in the top 10 largest in the nation and has been going on since 1954! I feel like this one should be on my to-do list but, man, there are just too many good marathons to do and not enough time!

This marathon followed much of the same trends we have been seeing with fewer finishers and thus, fewer qualifiers.

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3427829989.27%282268010.52%
F35-399792010.54%10479313.11%
F40-44808089.90%606609.09%
F45-498955516.04%8250216.33%
F50-544935014.00%4830615.69%
F55-591816610.84%1912415.32%
F60-6495217.31%95018.00%
F65-690110.00%21612.50%
F70-74010.00%020.00%
F75-79010.00%020.00%
F80+000.00%11100.00%
M18-3427027529.81%261241310.82%
M35-3910510729.79%969759.85%
M40-4410111268.97%959599.91%
M45-4914793615.71%10879113.65%
M50-5410369714.78%8353815.43%
M55-596339915.79%5836815.76%
M60-642918116.02%3014820.27%
M65-6995316.98%147618.42%
M70-7422010.00%1128.33%
M75-79070.00%080.00%
M80+030.00%010.00%
Totals14491310811.05%13531142511.84%

With this race, though, the qualification rate was up so the difference in total qualifiers is less than 100. This corresponds to a decrease of 6.6%.

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute986.76%745.47%
1-2 minutes845.80%745.47%
2-3 minutes946.49%896.58%
3-4 minutes594.07%654.80%
4-5 minutes815.59%513.77%
5-10 minutes27418.91%25418.77%
10-20 minutes35324.36%33824.98%
20> minutes40628.02%40830.16%
Totals14491353

No surprise here, The Squeaker Pack shrank from 28.71% to 26.09%.

Overall Numbers

Given where we are at in the analysis, it's going to take a whole lot more than the above numbers to move the needle either way.

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-342522322187.83%2327307717.56%
F35-391079123038.77%1071121468.82%
F40-441075115829.28%1003111349.01%
F45-491072797713.44%1022821812.44%
F50-54636522412.17%689547112.59%
F55-59349262513.30%333256412.99%
F60-64154106714.43%160110814.44%
F65-694433513.13%5036513.70%
F70-749979.28%91088.33%
F75-791244.17%1205.00%
F80+1333.33%2728.57%
M18-342225290797.65%2051271257.56%
M35-391069151127.07%1080143737.51%
M40-441235162267.61%1182150987.83%
M45-4914581291511.29%13591275410.66%
M50-5411671007911.58%1045991910.54%
M55-59698581712.00%707600611.77%
M60-64435299514.52%461300615.34%
M65-69192121315.83%182126614.38%
M70-745642713.11%5042311.82%
M75-7981097.34%111258.80%
M80+0220.00%2296.90%
Totals154851674499.25%147971620369.13%

We are looking at a 4.4% decrease in qualifiers, year over year.

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute9826.34%8465.72%
1-2 minutes9316.01%8565.78%
2-3 minutes8845.71%7865.31%
3-4 minutes7684.96%7354.97%
4-5 minutes7394.77%6034.08%
5-10 minutes318120.54%306020.68%
10-20 minutes409926.47%405427.40%
20> minutes390125.19%385726.07%
Totals1548514797

The Squeaker Pack shrank from 27.79% to 25.86%. So, as I state pretty much at every update, more folks qualifying with more than 5 minutes of margin.

What does this mean for the cutoff? Sorry to say that the update is a bit of a snoozer.

The number of runners in the previous qualification year achieving 147 seconds of margin was 13,137. Taking this year's data up to this point, the 13,137th runner has a margin of

1:57 or 117 seconds

No change with the addition of Philly.