Monday, February 29, 2016

Indianapolis Monumental Marathon 2015 Update

Indianapolis! So I've never been to this city but apparently it has a favorable marathon course? It's a smaller race, less than 5000 finishers. According to Wikipedia, it's only been around since 2008. Looking at the elelvation map, it looks fairly flat (of course, this is coming from someone who, if I have to from anywhere from my house, I am going to incur minimum 100 ft elevation over like .5 miles - if I want to run down at the bay which is what I usually do, it's 250ft+ down a hill that is about .75 miles and then you get to go back up it to get home). So, when I see like, 50 ft climb as the biggest hill, that is practically flat by San Diego standards.

Anyway, so, this race, unlike NYCM and MCM, appears to be following the same story as the rest of the feeders.

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3410264815.74%8462113.53%
F35-393629812.08%4636912.47%
F40-444524418.44%3430611.11%
F45-493315421.43%3119915.58%
F50-542611223.21%1912515.20%
F55-596619.84%157320.55%
F60-6483125.81%62524.00%
F65-6921118.18%2825.00%
F70-74000.00%000.00%
F75-79010.00%010.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-349659916.03%6755612.05%
M35-394937812.96%4736712.81%
M40-444035811.17%4940212.19%
M45-495030216.56%6138116.01%
M50-544824519.59%3927114.39%
M55-592315315.03%3616921.30%
M60-64177323.29%208922.47%
M65-6953713.51%93525.71%
M70-742922.22%2922.22%
M75-79020.00%030.00%
M80+000.00%000.00%
Totals588371615.82%567400914.14%

So, more finishers, but fewer qualifiers/rate of qualification. The decrease in qualifiers is 3.57% year over year.

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute416.97%386.70%
1-2 minutes406.80%396.88%
2-3 minutes386.46%315.47%
3-4 minutes254.25%305.29%
4-5 minutes213.57%264.59%
5-10 minutes11419.39%12321.69%
10-20 minutes15025.51%15026.46%
20> minutes15927.04%13022.93%
Totals588567

Squeaker pack (defined as qualifiers with less than 5 minutes of margin) in 2014 was 28.06%. In 2015, it was 28.92%. So, Squeaker Pack got bigger.

What does this mean for the prediction?

More data coming at ya.

AG2014 Qualifiers2014 AG Total% Qualifiers2015 Qualifiers2015 AG Total% Qualifiers
F18-342127280687.58%1958270617.24%
F35-39945109158.66%929109518.48%
F40-44953103269.23%914101199.03%
F45-49951714413.31%908745012.19%
F50-54572471012.14%616499912.32%
F55-59320236813.51%297236012.58%
F60-6413998714.08%147103414.22%
F65-694231813.21%4633913.57%
F70-748948.51%81017.92%
F75-791234.35%1185.56%
F80+1333.33%1616.67%
M18-341875255257.35%1721240387.16%
M35-39946136926.91%959130937.32%
M40-441093146947.44%1066138297.71%
M45-4912751162410.97%12181165310.45%
M50-541039912111.39%940911710.31%
M55-59613526611.64%626546511.45%
M60-64390273314.27%418277315.07%
M65-69173112515.38%161116213.86%
M70-745238913.37%4739411.93%
M75-798998.08%111119.91%
M80+0190.00%2277.41%
Totals135231492439.06%129941461008.89%

Alright, so, we're still looking at a smaller qualification group and lower qualification rates.

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute8516.29%7435.72%
1-2 minutes8075.97%7545.80%
2-3 minutes7565.59%6595.07%
3-4 minutes6795.02%6484.99%
4-5 minutes6344.69%5344.11%
5-10 minutes279120.64%270720.83%
10-20 minutes360626.67%360227.72%
20> minutes339925.13%334725.76%
Totals1352312994

And we're still looking at a smaller Squeaker Pack: 27.56% in 2014 vs 25.69% in 2015.

Now the final numbers that you are after. What does this mean for the cutoff prediction?

Not surprisingly, nothing.

Because the Monumental numbers looks very similar to last year and it is a smaller feeder, the prediction stays exactly the same.

11498 runners, at this juncture in 2014, made the 147 seconds of margin. Taking the 2015 qualifiers, sorting on margin descending, the 11498th runner has a margin of 119 seconds.

1:59 or 119 seconds


1 comment:

  1. awesome! thanks for the update! Glad to see the needle hasnt moved although there is still a ways to go!

    ReplyDelete