This race is one that is on my bucket list (I went to college in The City so it has a special place in my heart). I see they have made the qualification standards less ridiculously hard, however I still feel I have a rat's chance of making them. So I need to remember to enter the lottery every year and hope I get in. At some point after however many years of lottery attempt I will probably throw in the towel and fundraise. By then, my toddler will be at least in elementary school and hopefully allow me to have a little more free time to do something challenging, like raise a ton of money for charity.
I decided since it's been a bazillion years since I posted something, I would make this a race results analysis and cut off prediction combo post.
And, folks? The data doesn't look pretty. I sort of did a double take when I ran my queries and thought to myself: "Well, this can't be right..."
But it is.
| AG Group | 2014 Qualifiers | 2014 AG Total | Percentage | 2015 Qualifiers | 2015 AG Total | Percentage |
| F18-34 | 436 | 7775 | 5.61% | 405 | 8049 | 5.03% |
| F35-39 | 210 | 3504 | 5.99% | 201 | 3366 | 5.97% |
| F40-44 | 269 | 3661 | 7.35% | 257 | 3499 | 7.34% |
| F45-49 | 298 | 2748 | 10.84% | 306 | 2730 | 11.21% |
| F50-54 | 221 | 1905 | 11.60% | 223 | 1974 | 11.30% |
| F55-59 | 130 | 931 | 13.96% | 124 | 929 | 13.35% |
| F60-64 | 45 | 414 | 10.87% | 61 | 417 | 14.63% |
| F65-69 | 12 | 122 | 9.84% | 11 | 125 | 8.80% |
| F70-74 | 2 | 43 | 4.65% | 5 | 45 | 11.11% |
| F75-79 | 1 | 9 | 11.11% | 0 | 8 | 0.00% |
| F80+ | 1 | 3 | 33.33% | 1 | 5 | 20.00% |
| M18-34 | 395 | 7284 | 5.42% | 452 | 7265 | 6.22% |
| M35-39 | 255 | 4982 | 5.12% | 271 | 4657 | 5.82% |
| M40-44 | 337 | 5992 | 5.62% | 357 | 5291 | 6.75% |
| M45-49 | 401 | 4700 | 8.53% | 390 | 4540 | 8.59% |
| M50-54 | 330 | 3858 | 8.55% | 319 | 3752 | 8.50% |
| M55-59 | 176 | 1949 | 9.03% | 196 | 2126 | 9.22% |
| M60-64 | 120 | 1071 | 11.20% | 154 | 1060 | 14.53% |
| M65-69 | 54 | 430 | 12.56% | 52 | 430 | 12.09% |
| M70-74 | 15 | 156 | 9.62% | 16 | 148 | 10.81% |
| M75-79 | 3 | 38 | 7.89% | 3 | 53 | 5.66% |
| M80+ | 0 | 10 | 0.00% | 0 | 10 | 0.00% |
| Totals | 3711 | 51585 | 7.19% | 3804 | 50479 | 7.54% |
As you can see, the qualifiers are up. With fewer finishers, we have more qualifiers. I guess the weather in 2014 with the crazy wind must have been worse than the warmer conditions of 2015.
| Margin | 2014 | Percentage | 2015 | Percentage |
| <1 minute | 229 | 6.17% | 212 | 5.57% |
| 1-2 minutes | 195 | 5.25% | 191 | 5.02% |
| 2-3 minutes | 194 | 5.23% | 173 | 4.55% |
| 3-4 minutes | 188 | 5.07% | 159 | 4.18% |
| 4-5 minutes | 168 | 4.53% | 145 | 3.81% |
| 5-10 minutes | 749 | 20.18% | 779 | 20.48% |
| 10-20 minutes | 1025 | 27.62% | 1126 | 29.60% |
| 20> minutes | 963 | 25.95% | 1019 | 26.79% |
| Totals | 3711 | 3804 |
The Squeaker Pack looks a lot different too.
2014: 26.25%
2015: 23.13%
Qualifiers skewed more to 5+ minute margins.
Because this is a table/data heavy poast as it is, I'm going so skip the comprehensive breakdown of age group percentages. If you really want this data, let me know; I can email it to you.
The totals:
| AG | 2014 Qualifiers | 2014 AG Total | % Qualifiers | 2015 Qualifiers | 2015 AG Total | % Qualifiers |
| F18-34 | 2025 | 27420 | 7.39% | 1874 | 26440 | 7.09% |
| F35-39 | 909 | 10617 | 8.56% | 883 | 10582 | 8.34% |
| F40-44 | 908 | 10082 | 9.01% | 880 | 9813 | 8.97% |
| F45-49 | 918 | 6990 | 13.13% | 877 | 7251 | 12.09% |
| F50-54 | 546 | 4598 | 11.87% | 597 | 4874 | 12.25% |
| F55-59 | 314 | 2307 | 13.61% | 282 | 2287 | 12.33% |
| F60-64 | 131 | 956 | 13.70% | 141 | 1009 | 13.97% |
| F65-69 | 40 | 307 | 13.03% | 44 | 331 | 13.29% |
| F70-74 | 8 | 94 | 8.51% | 8 | 101 | 7.92% |
| F75-79 | 1 | 22 | 4.55% | 1 | 17 | 5.88% |
| F80+ | 1 | 3 | 33.33% | 1 | 6 | 16.67% |
| M18-34 | 1779 | 24926 | 7.14% | 1654 | 23482 | 7.04% |
| M35-39 | 897 | 13314 | 6.74% | 912 | 12726 | 7.17% |
| M40-44 | 1053 | 14336 | 7.35% | 1017 | 13427 | 7.57% |
| M45-49 | 1225 | 11322 | 10.82% | 1157 | 11272 | 10.26% |
| M50-54 | 991 | 8876 | 11.16% | 901 | 8846 | 10.19% |
| M55-59 | 590 | 5113 | 11.54% | 590 | 5296 | 11.14% |
| M60-64 | 373 | 2660 | 14.02% | 398 | 2684 | 14.83% |
| M65-69 | 168 | 1088 | 15.44% | 152 | 1127 | 13.49% |
| M70-74 | 50 | 380 | 13.16% | 45 | 385 | 11.69% |
| M75-79 | 8 | 97 | 8.25% | 11 | 108 | 10.19% |
| M80+ | 0 | 19 | 0.00% | 2 | 27 | 7.41% |
| Totals | 12935 | 145527 | 8.89% | 12427 | 142091 | 8.75% |
We still have a lower number of qualifiers and qualification percentages, though only 1.6% fewer year over year.
| Margin | 2014 | Percentage | 2015 | Percentage |
| <1 minute | 810 | 6.26% | 705 | 5.67% |
| 1-2 minutes | 767 | 5.93% | 715 | 5.75% |
| 2-3 minutes | 718 | 5.55% | 628 | 5.05% |
| 3-4 minutes | 654 | 5.06% | 618 | 4.97% |
| 4-5 minutes | 613 | 4.74% | 508 | 4.09% |
| 5-10 minutes | 2677 | 20.70% | 2584 | 20.79% |
| 10-20 minutes | 3456 | 26.72% | 3452 | 27.78% |
| 20> minutes | 3240 | 25.05% | 3217 | 25.89% |
| Totals | 12935 | 12427 |
Squeaker pack:
2014: 27.54%
2015: 25.54%
And now, the information you probably care about most... what the the calculation predict.
Over the 10 races we've analyzed so far, the number of finishers achieving 147 seconds of margin in 2014 was 11,014.
Taking the same 10 races in 2015, sorting my margin descending, the 11,014th finisher has a margin of...
119 seconds or 1:59
All I can say is "wow." We're still not at 2:28 but, damn, this is a lot closer than I thought we'd be seeing given the reports of the warmer conditions at NYCM this past year. But I guess strong winds are worse than upper 60s/low 70s.
Hopefully the next races I have on tap don't give me the same pain in download and parse. Worst case I can go back to this one aggregator but I'd rather not if I don't have to. I don't want to get my IP blocked and have zero good options.
