Monday, December 7, 2015

Not Entirely Without Warning: The Latest Prediction

I really didn't think that we would see too many swings in the data after 8 feeders, one of them being Chicago with 37,000 finishers. Then again, the size of the Marine Corps Marathon is nothing to sneeze at 23,000 so I suppose we can expect that unless the race analysis shows it's following the same trends, roughly, as previous races, we're going to see considerable movement of the cutoff calculation.

The MCM analysis showed that 2015 finishers were way up over 2014, which translated to more qualifiers than last year. And as we know (or if you don't know, I suppose), the 2016 cutoff was the biggest ever at 2:28. It follows that I expected the cutoff prediction to go up.

Qualifier age group data:

AG2014 Qualifiers2014 AG Total% Qualifiers2015 Qualifiers2015 AG Total% Qualifiers
F18-341589196458.09%1469183917.99%
F35-3969971139.83%68272169.45%
F40-4463964219.95%62363149.87%
F45-49620424214.62%571452112.63%
F50-54325269312.07%374290012.90%
F55-59184137613.37%158135811.63%
F60-648654215.87%8059213.51%
F65-692818515.14%3320616.02%
F70-7465111.76%3565.36%
F75-790130.00%1911.11%
F80+000.00%010.00%
M18-341384176427.84%1202162177.41%
M35-3964283327.71%64180697.94%
M40-4471683448.58%66081368.11%
M45-49824662212.44%767673211.39%
M50-54661501813.17%582509411.43%
M55-59414316413.08%394317012.43%
M60-64253158915.92%244162415.02%
M65-6911465817.33%10069714.35%
M70-743522415.63%2923712.24%
M75-795598.47%85514.55%
M80+090.00%21711.76%
Totals9224939429.82%8623916129.41%

Number of qualifiers is still down 6.52% over 2014. Definitely means that the current cutoff prediction is lower than 2:28. For that, we can all breath a (temporary) sigh of relief.

The margin data:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute5816.30%4935.72%
1-2 minutes5726.20%5246.08%
2-3 minutes5245.68%4555.28%
3-4 minutes4665.05%4595.32%
4-5 minutes4454.82%3634.21%
5-10 minutes192820.90%180520.93%
10-20 minutes243126.36%232626.97%
20> minutes227724.69%219825.49%
Totals92248623

Squeaker Pack in 2015: 26.60%
Squeaker Pack in 2014: 28.06%

This data didn't change much since the last prediction data compilation and analysis. Still seeing more qualifiers in 2015/2016 with more than 5 minutes of margin.

Finally the cutoff calculation.

The number of qualifiers achieving 147 seconds or better for the 2016 Boston Marathon was 7824.

Sorting the 2017 Boston Marathon Qualifiers by margin in seconds descending, the 7824th runner has a margin of...

95 seconds or 1:35

I have to say, that took me a bit by surprise. Almost 20 seconds up. Now, the next race on deck for me to compile is NYCM and I've heard varying accounts of folks saying it was hot, etc. Possibly, 2014 results were better than 2015. It's also a big race (the biggest, in fact, as far as I'm aware). It could sway things back down or up depending on what the data looks like year over year.

Either way, we're still not looking at 2:28, though 95 seconds is certainly higher than I was thinking we would be at this point.


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