Wednesday, December 2, 2015

MCM Marathon 2015: Fairly Big Spike in Participation

Looking back at last year's comparison, 2014 had a drop in qualification numbers. But in 2015, MCM has bucked the trend we've seen with the feeders - they have 17.8% more finishers! I wonder if more people signed up? Doesn't this race have a lottery?

Boy, am I itching now to see how this affects the cutoff (though, I think we can safely assume, it's going to go up).

It's also been in recent news with Runners' World and Let's Run:
http://www.runnersworld.com/races/marine-corps-marathon-issues-lifetime-ban-to-runner

(Note that I find these stories just fascinating! Though I hear this guy has fessed up and apologized unlike some other folks I've heard about in the past, which kudos to him.)

The age group qualifier data:

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3412935793.60%13739833.44%
F35-393214022.28%5418052.99%
F40-446014314.19%6317593.58%
F45-49699607.19%6213144.72%
F50-54296704.33%408574.67%
F55-59123293.65%224335.08%
F60-64121239.76%101636.13%
F65-694498.16%2553.64%
F70-741137.69%0180.00%
F75-79020.00%010.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-349634612.77%10336592.81%
M35-394518112.48%5720492.78%
M40-445018542.70%4421472.05%
M45-495915253.87%7619014.00%
M50-544411223.92%6314384.38%
M55-59326984.58%477975.90%
M60-64213665.74%294286.78%
M65-69161669.64%192248.48%
M70-742484.17%4675.97%
M75-790120.00%0130.00%
M80+010.00%030.00%
Totals713196223.63%832231143.60%

Qualification rate is just slightly down, but look at the total qualifiers. It's up 16.7% year over year!

Wow.

The qualifier margin data:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute567.85%586.97%
1-2 minutes486.73%688.17%
2-3 minutes415.75%536.37%
3-4 minutes375.19%455.41%
4-5 minutes405.61%364.33%
5-10 minutes15822.16%19022.84%
10-20 minutes21129.59%21726.08%
20> minutes12217.11%16519.83%
Totals713832

Squeaker Pack is slightly larger in 2015 at 31.25% versus 31.14% in 2014... so another bucking of the trend for MCM - more folks with less than 5 minutes. This also may have an impact on the cutoff calculation (just looking at the 0-2 minutes, there are 4% more qualifiers in this range than in 2014).

Bonus margin data by age group:

AGYear< 1 min1 - 2 min2 - 3 min3 - 4 min4 - 5 min5 - 10 min10 - 20 min20 > min
F18-34MCM201410.1%7.0%3.9%10.9%5.4%19.4%27.9%15.5%
F18-34MCM20156.6%6.6%5.8%5.8%3.6%24.8%25.5%21.2%
F35-39MCM201412.5%9.4%9.4%6.3%3.1%25.0%18.8%15.6%
F35-39MCM201513.0%0.0%1.9%3.7%0.0%33.3%27.8%20.4%
F40-44MCM201411.7%8.3%13.3%5.0%8.3%13.3%25.0%15.0%
F40-44MCM20154.8%7.9%9.5%3.2%6.3%28.6%27.0%12.7%
F45-49MCM20144.3%8.7%4.3%5.8%4.3%34.8%27.5%10.1%
F45-49MCM20158.1%16.1%8.1%4.8%4.8%19.4%21.0%17.7%
F50-54MCM20143.4%10.3%3.4%3.4%3.4%31.0%34.5%10.3%
F50-54MCM20157.5%5.0%7.5%7.5%7.5%17.5%27.5%20.0%
F55-59MCM20140.0%0.0%25.0%8.3%0.0%16.7%41.7%8.3%
F55-59MCM20154.5%9.1%9.1%9.1%9.1%18.2%9.1%31.8%
F60-64MCM20148.3%8.3%0.0%16.7%8.3%25.0%8.3%25.0%
F60-64MCM20150.0%10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.0%50.0%30.0%
F65-69MCM20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%75.0%
F65-69MCM20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%50.0%
F70-74MCM20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
F70-74MCM20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
M18-34MCM20146.3%5.2%8.3%3.1%1.0%22.9%30.2%22.9%
M18-34MCM20154.9%9.7%8.7%4.9%2.9%23.3%22.3%23.3%
M35-39MCM201411.1%4.4%6.7%2.2%8.9%20.0%33.3%13.3%
M35-39MCM20151.8%10.5%7.0%5.3%5.3%22.8%31.6%15.8%
M40-44MCM201410.0%6.0%0.0%2.0%6.0%24.0%38.0%14.0%
M40-44MCM20156.8%2.3%4.5%6.8%4.5%25.0%31.8%18.2%
M45-49MCM20146.8%3.4%1.7%3.4%11.9%22.0%35.6%15.3%
M45-49MCM201514.5%13.2%6.6%7.9%3.9%14.5%22.4%17.1%
M50-54MCM20149.1%13.6%4.5%4.5%9.1%15.9%29.5%13.6%
M50-54MCM20157.9%6.3%3.2%0.0%7.9%28.6%28.6%17.5%
M55-59MCM20143.1%0.0%12.5%0.0%6.3%18.8%37.5%21.9%
M55-59MCM20154.3%12.8%6.4%8.5%4.3%17.0%23.4%23.4%
M60-64MCM20140.0%9.5%0.0%4.8%0.0%33.3%23.8%28.6%
M60-64MCM20156.9%0.0%6.9%10.3%0.0%20.7%37.9%17.2%
M65-69MCM201412.5%6.3%0.0%0.0%6.3%12.5%25.0%37.5%
M65-69MCM20155.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%21.1%31.6%21.1%
M70-74MCM20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%50.0%
M70-74MCM20150.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%50.0%

I hope to get the cutoff prediction post done this week now that I've automated much of the data output into CSVs that I can import into spreadsheets.

The big question is just how much upward pressure will MCM apply to the cutoff.

1 comment:

  1. Great work. Anxiously watching this blog. Think there is any chance it gets to 2:30 or greater this year?

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