Not Entirely Without Warning: The Latest Prediction

I really didn't think that we would see too many swings in the data after 8 feeders, one of them being Chicago with 37,000 finishers. Then again, the size of the Marine Corps Marathon is nothing to sneeze at 23,000 so I suppose we can expect that unless the race analysis shows it's following the same trends, roughly, as previous races, we're going to see considerable movement of the cutoff calculation.

The MCM analysis showed that 2015 finishers were way up over 2014, which translated to more qualifiers than last year. And as we know (or if you don't know, I suppose), the 2016 cutoff was the biggest ever at 2:28. It follows that I expected the cutoff prediction to go up.

Qualifier age group data:

AG	2014 Qualifiers	2014 AG Total	% Qualifiers	2015 Qualifiers	2015 AG Total	% Qualifiers
F18-34	1589	19645	8.09%	1469	18391	7.99%
F35-39	699	7113	9.83%	682	7216	9.45%
F40-44	639	6421	9.95%	623	6314	9.87%
F45-49	620	4242	14.62%	571	4521	12.63%
F50-54	325	2693	12.07%	374	2900	12.90%
F55-59	184	1376	13.37%	158	1358	11.63%
F60-64	86	542	15.87%	80	592	13.51%
F65-69	28	185	15.14%	33	206	16.02%
F70-74	6	51	11.76%	3	56	5.36%
F75-79	0	13	0.00%	1	9	11.11%
F80+	0	0	0.00%	0	1	0.00%
M18-34	1384	17642	7.84%	1202	16217	7.41%
M35-39	642	8332	7.71%	641	8069	7.94%
M40-44	716	8344	8.58%	660	8136	8.11%
M45-49	824	6622	12.44%	767	6732	11.39%
M50-54	661	5018	13.17%	582	5094	11.43%
M55-59	414	3164	13.08%	394	3170	12.43%
M60-64	253	1589	15.92%	244	1624	15.02%
M65-69	114	658	17.33%	100	697	14.35%
M70-74	35	224	15.63%	29	237	12.24%
M75-79	5	59	8.47%	8	55	14.55%
M80+	0	9	0.00%	2	17	11.76%
Totals	9224	93942	9.82%	8623	91612	9.41%

Number of qualifiers is still down 6.52% over 2014. Definitely means that the current cutoff prediction is lower than 2:28. For that, we can all breath a (temporary) sigh of relief.

The margin data:

Margin	2014	Percentage	2015	Percentage
<1 minute	581	6.30%	493	5.72%
1-2 minutes	572	6.20%	524	6.08%
2-3 minutes	524	5.68%	455	5.28%
3-4 minutes	466	5.05%	459	5.32%
4-5 minutes	445	4.82%	363	4.21%
5-10 minutes	1928	20.90%	1805	20.93%
10-20 minutes	2431	26.36%	2326	26.97%
20> minutes	2277	24.69%	2198	25.49%
Totals	9224		8623

Squeaker Pack in 2015: 26.60%
Squeaker Pack in 2014: 28.06%

This data didn't change much since the last prediction data compilation and analysis. Still seeing more qualifiers in 2015/2016 with more than 5 minutes of margin.

Finally the cutoff calculation.

The number of qualifiers achieving 147 seconds or better for the 2016 Boston Marathon was 7824.

Sorting the 2017 Boston Marathon Qualifiers by margin in seconds descending, the 7824th runner has a margin of...

95 seconds or 1:35

I have to say, that took me a bit by surprise. Almost 20 seconds up. Now, the next race on deck for me to compile is NYCM and I've heard varying accounts of folks saying it was hot, etc. Possibly, 2014 results were better than 2015. It's also a big race (the biggest, in fact, as far as I'm aware). It could sway things back down or up depending on what the data looks like year over year.

Either way, we're still not looking at 2:28, though 95 seconds is certainly higher than I was thinking we would be at this point.

MCM Marathon 2015: Fairly Big Spike in Participation

Looking back at last year's comparison, 2014 had a drop in qualification numbers. But in 2015, MCM has bucked the trend we've seen with the feeders - they have 17.8% more finishers! I wonder if more people signed up? Doesn't this race have a lottery?

Boy, am I itching now to see how this affects the cutoff (though, I think we can safely assume, it's going to go up).

It's also been in recent news with Runners' World and Let's Run:
http://www.runnersworld.com/races/marine-corps-marathon-issues-lifetime-ban-to-runner

(Note that I find these stories just fascinating! Though I hear this guy has fessed up and apologized unlike some other folks I've heard about in the past, which kudos to him.)

The age group qualifier data:

AG Group	2014 Qualifiers	2014 AG Total	Percentage	2015 Qualifiers	2015 AG Total	Percentage
F18-34	129	3579	3.60%	137	3983	3.44%
F35-39	32	1402	2.28%	54	1805	2.99%
F40-44	60	1431	4.19%	63	1759	3.58%
F45-49	69	960	7.19%	62	1314	4.72%
F50-54	29	670	4.33%	40	857	4.67%
F55-59	12	329	3.65%	22	433	5.08%
F60-64	12	123	9.76%	10	163	6.13%
F65-69	4	49	8.16%	2	55	3.64%
F70-74	1	13	7.69%	0	18	0.00%
F75-79	0	2	0.00%	0	1	0.00%
F80+	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%
M18-34	96	3461	2.77%	103	3659	2.81%
M35-39	45	1811	2.48%	57	2049	2.78%
M40-44	50	1854	2.70%	44	2147	2.05%
M45-49	59	1525	3.87%	76	1901	4.00%
M50-54	44	1122	3.92%	63	1438	4.38%
M55-59	32	698	4.58%	47	797	5.90%
M60-64	21	366	5.74%	29	428	6.78%
M65-69	16	166	9.64%	19	224	8.48%
M70-74	2	48	4.17%	4	67	5.97%
M75-79	0	12	0.00%	0	13	0.00%
M80+	0	1	0.00%	0	3	0.00%
Totals	713	19622	3.63%	832	23114	3.60%

Qualification rate is just slightly down, but look at the total qualifiers. It's up 16.7% year over year!

Wow.

The qualifier margin data:

Margin	2014	Percentage	2015	Percentage
<1 minute	56	7.85%	58	6.97%
1-2 minutes	48	6.73%	68	8.17%
2-3 minutes	41	5.75%	53	6.37%
3-4 minutes	37	5.19%	45	5.41%
4-5 minutes	40	5.61%	36	4.33%
5-10 minutes	158	22.16%	190	22.84%
10-20 minutes	211	29.59%	217	26.08%
20> minutes	122	17.11%	165	19.83%
Totals	713		832

Squeaker Pack is slightly larger in 2015 at 31.25% versus 31.14% in 2014... so another bucking of the trend for MCM - more folks with less than 5 minutes. This also may have an impact on the cutoff calculation (just looking at the 0-2 minutes, there are 4% more qualifiers in this range than in 2014).

Bonus margin data by age group:

AG	Year	< 1 min	1 - 2 min	2 - 3 min	3 - 4 min	4 - 5 min	5 - 10 min	10 - 20 min	20 > min
F18-34	MCM2014	10.1%	7.0%	3.9%	10.9%	5.4%	19.4%	27.9%	15.5%
F18-34	MCM2015	6.6%	6.6%	5.8%	5.8%	3.6%	24.8%	25.5%	21.2%
F35-39	MCM2014	12.5%	9.4%	9.4%	6.3%	3.1%	25.0%	18.8%	15.6%
F35-39	MCM2015	13.0%	0.0%	1.9%	3.7%	0.0%	33.3%	27.8%	20.4%
F40-44	MCM2014	11.7%	8.3%	13.3%	5.0%	8.3%	13.3%	25.0%	15.0%
F40-44	MCM2015	4.8%	7.9%	9.5%	3.2%	6.3%	28.6%	27.0%	12.7%
F45-49	MCM2014	4.3%	8.7%	4.3%	5.8%	4.3%	34.8%	27.5%	10.1%
F45-49	MCM2015	8.1%	16.1%	8.1%	4.8%	4.8%	19.4%	21.0%	17.7%
F50-54	MCM2014	3.4%	10.3%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	31.0%	34.5%	10.3%
F50-54	MCM2015	7.5%	5.0%	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%	17.5%	27.5%	20.0%
F55-59	MCM2014	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	8.3%	0.0%	16.7%	41.7%	8.3%
F55-59	MCM2015	4.5%	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%	18.2%	9.1%	31.8%
F60-64	MCM2014	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	16.7%	8.3%	25.0%	8.3%	25.0%
F60-64	MCM2015	0.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	10.0%	50.0%	30.0%
F65-69	MCM2014	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	75.0%
F65-69	MCM2015	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%
F70-74	MCM2014	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
F70-74	MCM2015	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
M18-34	MCM2014	6.3%	5.2%	8.3%	3.1%	1.0%	22.9%	30.2%	22.9%
M18-34	MCM2015	4.9%	9.7%	8.7%	4.9%	2.9%	23.3%	22.3%	23.3%
M35-39	MCM2014	11.1%	4.4%	6.7%	2.2%	8.9%	20.0%	33.3%	13.3%
M35-39	MCM2015	1.8%	10.5%	7.0%	5.3%	5.3%	22.8%	31.6%	15.8%
M40-44	MCM2014	10.0%	6.0%	0.0%	2.0%	6.0%	24.0%	38.0%	14.0%
M40-44	MCM2015	6.8%	2.3%	4.5%	6.8%	4.5%	25.0%	31.8%	18.2%
M45-49	MCM2014	6.8%	3.4%	1.7%	3.4%	11.9%	22.0%	35.6%	15.3%
M45-49	MCM2015	14.5%	13.2%	6.6%	7.9%	3.9%	14.5%	22.4%	17.1%
M50-54	MCM2014	9.1%	13.6%	4.5%	4.5%	9.1%	15.9%	29.5%	13.6%
M50-54	MCM2015	7.9%	6.3%	3.2%	0.0%	7.9%	28.6%	28.6%	17.5%
M55-59	MCM2014	3.1%	0.0%	12.5%	0.0%	6.3%	18.8%	37.5%	21.9%
M55-59	MCM2015	4.3%	12.8%	6.4%	8.5%	4.3%	17.0%	23.4%	23.4%
M60-64	MCM2014	0.0%	9.5%	0.0%	4.8%	0.0%	33.3%	23.8%	28.6%
M60-64	MCM2015	6.9%	0.0%	6.9%	10.3%	0.0%	20.7%	37.9%	17.2%
M65-69	MCM2014	12.5%	6.3%	0.0%	0.0%	6.3%	12.5%	25.0%	37.5%
M65-69	MCM2015	5.3%	5.3%	5.3%	5.3%	5.3%	21.1%	31.6%	21.1%
M70-74	MCM2014	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%
M70-74	MCM2015	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	50.0%

I hope to get the cutoff prediction post done this week now that I've automated much of the data output into CSVs that I can import into spreadsheets.

The big question is just how much upward pressure will MCM apply to the cutoff.