Wednesday, November 11, 2015

With Seven Top Feeder Races Analyzed...

I was fully expecting to see the cutoff go down again after Baystate just because the total qualifiers were again down. However, part of what impacts the cutoff is (a) size of the last race analyzed (so, smaller race, would expect less movement in the projection), (b) the margins - i.e. where the qualifiers land in the distribution of margin in seconds under the standard.

Here are the age group totals, year over year:

AG2014 Qualifiers2014 AG Total% Qualifiers2015 Qualifiers2015 AG Total% Qualifiers
F18-341380154928.91%1254138659.04%
F35-39633549011.53%594520811.41%
F40-44531474511.19%514431111.92%
F45-49496308316.09%476307115.50%
F50-54275192214.31%306193315.83%
F55-5915098615.21%13389614.84%
F60-647040017.50%6640816.18%
F65-692313317.29%2914520.00%
F70-7453713.51%3387.89%
F75-790110.00%1812.50%
F80+000.00%010.00%
M18-341196133508.96%1013117908.59%
M35-3955261359.00%52856589.33%
M40-44609606110.05%556554410.03%
M45-49699474814.72%613449913.63%
M50-54560363115.42%474339213.97%
M55-59349231015.11%306219613.93%
M60-64207114318.11%187112616.61%
M65-595431017.42%4331213.78%
M65-693214322.38%2812921.71%
M70-743217118.71%2416214.81%
M75-7954710.64%84219.05%
M80+080.00%21414.29%
Totals78587035611.17%71586474811.06%

Rate of qualification hasn't changed too much with Baystate results. Down 1.02% year-over-year. Total qualifiers is down 8.91%.

Here is the margin breakdown:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute4786.08%3955.52%
1-2 minutes4796.10%4055.66%
2-3 minutes4475.69%3785.28%
3-4 minutes4005.09%3855.38%
4-5 minutes3764.78%2984.16%
5-10 minutes166221.15%147920.66%
10-20 minutes203925.95%194627.19%
20> minutes197725.16%187226.15%
Totals78587158

The Squeaker Pack, 7 races in, for 2015 is 26%. This is down from 27.74% in 2014, again following the trend of qualifiers having 5 minutes or more of wiggle room.

What does this mean for the prediction?

In the 7 races analyzed thus far, the number of runners achieving 147+ seconds of margin in 2014 was 6687. Taking the qualifiers we have for these 7 races in 2015, sorting on margin descending, the 6687th qualifier has a margin of...

71 seconds or 1 minutes 11 seconds

For Baystate, in 2014 there was a large group of folks in the 2-3 minute margin range. 9.21% compared to 2015 at 6.21%. The total qualifiers in 2014 with margin of 2 minutes and more was 86.2%, while in 2015 this number was 85.5%. So in 2014, when looking for folks with 147 seconds or better, more Baystate qualifiers were shifted in the 2+ range. This results in a higher number of qualifiers in 2014 than if the margin data had looked more like 2015. This shows how the distribution of margin of qualification can impact the overall prediction cutoff. It also may not provide the most accurate view because, just looking at the raw numbers, the qualifiers in Baystate were down by 31 or 8.4%. But instead what we see is actually an increase in the cutoff prediction.

Next up to analyze is Toronto Waterfront Marathon.


1 comment:

  1. I'm not too surprised by the new cutoff prediction as in addition to the factors you already mentioned I'd contend that the downward pressure of the Baystate numbers is only downward relative to last year's 2:28, and not necessarily downward from 1:10 (e.g. while total qualifiers in Baystate were down by 8.4% total qualifiers in the other 6 races in the analysis were down by 8.9%, so looking at these numbers Baystate more or less confirmed the 1:10 prediction, maybe marginal upward pressure even?).
    Not sure my thinking isn't flawed though!

    Love following your blog, thank you for putting in the work!

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