Thursday, November 19, 2015

Race Analysis: Toronto Waterfront Marathon 2014 vs 2015

I am finally posting this analysis. It took me longer because I decided to automate the table generation process with comma-separated dump files (CSV) that I can import into a spreadsheet. It was so much faster formatting the data once I did that! I just need to do it now for the overall data updates.



Toronto Waterfront Marathon is another top 25 feeder with which I was not familiar until this week. IMO, it is relatively new. Inaugural race was in 2000, so only 15 years running which, compared to others like NYC, Boston, Chicago, LA, etc, is young. Shoot, even San Diego Rock n Roll is older (first event was in 1998).

The qualifier age group data...

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-348057413.94%7854314.36%
F35-393422115.38%3420316.75%
F40-444824519.59%4624418.85%
F45-495519927.64%3313624.26%
F50-542110120.79%2811025.45%
F55-59226136.07%32910.34%
F60-6441921.05%42119.05%
F65-691333.33%2633.33%
F70-74010.00%000.00%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-349283111.07%8676811.20%
M35-394538611.66%5636215.47%
M40-445742913.29%6044513.48%
M45-496634918.91%7833223.49%
M50-545726521.51%4526417.05%
M55-593315621.15%4117723.16%
M60-64258031.25%287040.00%
M65-69123930.77%103231.25%
M70-741520.00%1812.50%
M75-79000.00%000.00%
M80+000.00%000.00%
Totals653396416.47%633375016.88%

Unlike most of the other races we have looked at in this qualification window, the qualification rate is up! But, like the trend, the participation rate is down. So we see fewer qualifiers 3.06%

Here is the margin data:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute477.20%406.32%
1-2 minutes456.89%518.06%
2-3 minutes365.51%243.79%
3-4 minutes294.44%294.58%
4-5 minutes294.44%294.58%
5-10 minutes10816.54%13621.48%
10-20 minutes18127.72%16325.75%
20> minutes17827.26%16125.43%
Totals653633

The Squeaker Pack in 2014 was 28.48%. In 2015 it was 27.33%, following the trend of runners qualifying with more margin.

Bonus Data:

AGYear< 1 min1 - 2 min2 - 3 min3 - 4 min4 - 5 min5 - 10 min10 - 20 min20 > min
F18-34TORONTO201410.0%8.7%8.7%2.5%5.0%13.8%18.8%32.5%
F18-34TORONTO20156.4%7.7%5.1%5.1%2.6%17.9%23.1%32.1%
F35-39TORONTO20145.9%2.9%8.8%11.8%14.7%5.9%29.4%20.6%
F35-39TORONTO20152.9%11.8%5.9%0.0%11.8%32.4%26.5%8.8%
F40-44TORONTO20146.3%4.2%2.1%4.2%6.3%20.8%31.3%25.0%
F40-44TORONTO20150.0%4.3%2.2%4.3%4.3%32.6%37.0%15.2%
F45-49TORONTO20149.1%7.3%0.0%7.3%0.0%18.2%32.7%25.5%
F45-49TORONTO20159.1%3.0%3.0%0.0%3.0%30.3%30.3%21.2%
F50-54TORONTO20144.8%9.5%0.0%4.8%14.3%23.8%19.0%23.8%
F50-54TORONTO201510.7%10.7%3.6%0.0%3.6%17.9%39.3%14.3%
F55-59TORONTO20144.5%4.5%0.0%4.5%4.5%13.6%36.4%31.8%
F55-59TORONTO20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%33.3%33.3%33.3%
F60-64TORONTO20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%75.0%
F60-64TORONTO20150.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%50.0%
F65-69TORONTO20140.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
F65-69TORONTO20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%50.0%
M18-34TORONTO20145.4%10.9%9.8%5.4%2.2%17.4%16.3%32.6%
M18-34TORONTO20155.8%7.0%1.2%4.7%7.0%20.9%17.4%36.0%
M35-39TORONTO201411.1%6.7%8.9%4.4%8.9%17.8%28.9%13.3%
M35-39TORONTO20158.9%12.5%7.1%8.9%5.4%17.9%23.2%16.1%
M40-44TORONTO20148.8%3.5%5.3%5.3%3.5%19.3%38.6%15.8%
M40-44TORONTO20158.3%11.7%6.7%3.3%5.0%25.0%18.3%21.7%
M45-49TORONTO20146.1%7.6%3.0%1.5%0.0%24.2%37.9%19.7%
M45-49TORONTO20159.0%7.7%2.6%6.4%3.8%20.5%25.6%24.4%
M50-54TORONTO20148.8%10.5%5.3%3.5%3.5%8.8%28.1%31.6%
M50-54TORONTO20154.4%8.9%2.2%6.7%4.4%15.6%33.3%24.4%
M55-59TORONTO20143.0%3.0%9.1%0.0%6.1%15.2%30.3%33.3%
M55-59TORONTO20152.4%9.8%4.9%2.4%2.4%17.1%26.8%34.1%
M60-64TORONTO20144.0%0.0%0.0%4.0%4.0%16.0%28.0%44.0%
M60-64TORONTO201510.7%3.6%0.0%3.6%0.0%14.3%39.3%28.6%
M65-69TORONTO20148.3%8.3%0.0%8.3%0.0%16.7%16.7%41.7%
M65-69TORONTO20150.0%0.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%0.0%60.0%
M70-74TORONTO20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
M70-74TORONTO20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%

I suspect that this won't change the prediction much. The difference in qualifiers is only 20 people and now that we are 8 races in with a large major in there, 20 qualifiers is not going to swing it too far either way.

I will likely make more automation improvements for the overall data so I will likely get to posting the next prediction early next week!

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