Monday, November 2, 2015

2017 Cut Off Prediction with Columbus Marathon Results

Hi All! Hope you had a good Halloween weekend and congratulations to any NYCM finishers out there! I hope to one day run that race. It'll be interesting to see the qualification numbers for that one when I get to compiling the results (still got quite a few in October to do - it is, by far, the busiest month for top feeder marathons).

I need to go back and see if the trending analysis of Boston Qualifier Stats followed anything similar to what we are seeing until the colossal update of the 2015 Boston Marathon (i.e. lower trending numbers). Because as it stands, all the numbers (finishers, qualifiers, and rate of qualification) are trending lower (with the exception of Steamtown which was pretty much flat).

With the inclusion of Columbus, we have the following age group totals:

AG2014 Qualifiers2014 AG Total% Qualifiers2015 Qualifiers2015 AG Total% Qualifiers
F18-341314152188.63%1197136088.80%
F35-39603537511.22%561508911.02%
F40-44507463210.95%481419111.48%
F45-49464299315.50%451299515.06%
F50-54260187713.85%293189915.43%
F55-5914196614.60%12687514.40%
F60-646939417.51%6540216.17%
F65-692113016.15%2714219.01%
F70-7453713.51%3368.33%
F75-790110.00%1812.50%
F80+000.00%010.00%
M18-341151130768.80%981115608.49%
M35-3952660048.76%50955299.21%
M40-4458359109.86%52554079.71%
M45-49668463214.42%585439113.32%
M50-54536354615.12%450331713.57%
M55-59327224914.54%294215213.66%
M60-64196111817.53%172109515.71%
M65-595030216.56%4130413.49%
M65-693214322.38%2812921.71%
M70-743116918.34%2015512.90%
M75-7954610.87%84219.05%
M80+080.00%21414.29%
Totals74896883610.88%68206334110.77%

The rate of qualification has bumped up since we included the Chicago results, though, again the fact that the total finishers is down, it still translates to 669 fewer qualifiers (about -9%).

The margin breakdown is as follows:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute4506.01%3755.50%
1-2 minutes4566.09%3765.51%
2-3 minutes4135.51%3575.23%
3-4 minutes3835.11%3565.22%
4-5 minutes3514.69%2814.12%
5-10 minutes156620.91%140220.56%
10-20 minutes195126.05%186027.27%
20> minutes191925.62%181326.58%
Totals74896820

The Squeaker Pack is 25.59% in 2015 vs 27.41% in 2014. Columbus results bumped up the size of the under 5 minute group as we saw that race had a significantly larger under 5 minute group of 30%.

On to the cutoff calculation...

The number of runners in 2014 in these 5 feeder races that achieved a margin greater than 147 seconds (so 2:28 or better) was 6382.

Taking the 2015 qualifiers of these 5 races and sorting by the margin descending the 6382nd runner has a margin of...

70 seconds or 1 minute 10 seconds

Next up is Baystate Marathon - looks like a small marathon but high rate of qualification. All the results are listed in one html page (which, when I'm parsing all this stuff that is my definition of a small race - Chicago had many many... many pages of results).

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