Thursday, November 5, 2015

2015 Baystate Marathon Results

Today writing this analysis is a breath of fresh air from my day to day work, though I will have to make it quick because I do have limited time to get this information out to you folks.

So, Baystate. Held in Lowell, Massahusetts. I had heard of this marathon before, however I didn't know much about it, and vaguely that it was in my home state (i.e. the state in which I grew up). I had, for a short time in my life, thought that I might study Meteorology and UMass Lowell was on my list of schools where I could do that. Lowell, from what I recall, is also a former manufacturing town, textiles and such.

Anyway, results...





AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-346627424.09%5725722.18%
F35-393011526.09%3311927.73%
F40-442411321.24%3312027.50%
F45-49329035.56%257632.89%
F50-54154533.33%133438.24%
F55-5992045.00%72133.33%
F60-641616.67%1616.67%
F65-692366.67%2366.67%
F70-74000.00%020.00%
F75-59000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-344527416.42%3223013.91%
M35-392613119.85%1912914.73%
M40-442615117.22%3113722.63%
M45-493111626.72%2810825.93%
M50-54248528.24%247532.00%
M55-59226136.07%124427.27%
M60-64112544.00%153148.39%
M65-594850.00%2825.00%
M70-741250.00%4757.14%
M75-59010.00%000.00%
M80+000.00%000.00%
Totals369152024.28%338140724.02%

It's a small race with a high rate of qualification, much like Steamtown. The rate of qualification held pretty steady however were fewer participants and in turn fewer qualifiers. This will exert more downward pressure on the predicted cutoff.

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute287.59%205.92%
1-2 minutes236.23%298.58%
2-3 minutes349.21%216.21%
3-4 minutes174.61%298.58%
4-5 minutes256.78%175.03%
5-10 minutes9626.02%7722.78%
10-20 minutes8823.85%8625.44%
20> minutes5815.72%5917.46%
Totals369338

The Squeaker Pack was nearly the same year over year. 34.42% and 34.32% in 2015.

Bonus data:

AGYear< 1 min1 - 2 min2 - 3 min3 - 4 min4 - 5 min5 - 10 min10 - 20 min20 > min
F18-34BAYSTATE20155.3%12.3%3.5%10.5%5.3%26.3%15.8%21.1%
F18-34BAYSTATE201412.1%3.0%6.1%4.5%6.1%31.8%21.2%15.2%
F35-39BAYSTATE20159.1%6.1%12.1%3.0%9.1%30.3%24.2%6.1%
F35-39BAYSTATE20143.3%0.0%10.0%6.7%10.0%16.7%23.3%30.0%
F40-44BAYSTATE201412.5%4.2%8.3%12.5%12.5%20.8%12.5%16.7%
F40-44BAYSTATE20156.1%6.1%6.1%21.2%9.1%18.2%21.2%12.1%
F45-49BAYSTATE20150.0%12.0%8.0%4.0%0.0%16.0%40.0%20.0%
F45-49BAYSTATE20143.1%9.4%6.3%3.1%3.1%28.1%18.8%28.1%
F50-54BAYSTATE20157.7%15.4%0.0%7.7%0.0%23.1%15.4%30.8%
F50-54BAYSTATE20146.7%6.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%33.3%33.3%20.0%
F55-59BAYSTATE201411.1%0.0%11.1%0.0%0.0%11.1%33.3%33.3%
F55-59BAYSTATE20150.0%14.3%14.3%0.0%14.3%0.0%42.9%14.3%
F60-64BAYSTATE20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
F60-64BAYSTATE20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
F65-69BAYSTATE20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%
F65-69BAYSTATE20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%50.0%0.0%
M18-34BAYSTATE201413.3%13.3%4.4%0.0%6.7%31.1%24.4%6.7%
M18-34BAYSTATE201515.6%6.3%12.5%6.3%6.3%37.5%15.6%0.0%
M35-39BAYSTATE20155.3%10.5%0.0%5.3%10.5%15.8%42.1%10.5%
M35-39BAYSTATE20147.7%3.8%19.2%3.8%7.7%26.9%23.1%7.7%
M40-44BAYSTATE20143.8%15.4%7.7%3.8%11.5%34.6%19.2%3.8%
M40-44BAYSTATE20156.5%9.7%6.5%9.7%6.5%22.6%16.1%22.6%
M45-49BAYSTATE20149.7%3.2%22.6%6.5%3.2%25.8%25.8%3.2%
M45-49BAYSTATE20150.0%10.7%0.0%10.7%3.6%7.1%25.0%42.9%
M50-54BAYSTATE20154.2%4.2%8.3%12.5%0.0%37.5%20.8%12.5%
M50-54BAYSTATE20144.2%8.3%8.3%0.0%0.0%33.3%37.5%8.3%
M55-59BAYSTATE20140.0%9.1%18.2%9.1%18.2%13.6%22.7%9.1%
M55-59BAYSTATE20150.0%0.0%8.3%0.0%0.0%16.7%58.3%16.7%
M60-64BAYSTATE20140.0%0.0%0.0%9.1%0.0%0.0%45.5%45.5%
M60-64BAYSTATE20156.7%6.7%6.7%0.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%20.0%
M65-59BAYSTATE20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%50.0%
M65-59BAYSTATE20140.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%50.0%
M70-74BAYSTATE201525.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%25.0%
M70-74BAYSTATE20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%

New cutoff prediction will be the next post, but I think the above is pointing to more downward pressure and we should be seeing a lower cutoff with these numbers.


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