Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Happy Turkey Day Week and a New Projection!


I'm one of the last folks here today. Talk about crickets. Tomorrow is going to be even worse! I normally take the day off to go do last minute Thanksgiving errands and pick up my turkey trot bib (I have run the last 8 years, this year will be 9 years, of the Oceanside Turkey Trot), but I decided I am not driving up to North County on the day before Thanksgiving again (i.e. worst travel day of the year - last two years I have spent far too much time in traffic) and will just deal with picking it up race morning.

Anyway, enough about me! The prediction calculation is done. I automated the data table output (I was able to reuse some of the same methods I use for the race vs race) and this will help reduce human error. The last part will be to automate the prediction such that it just outputs me the total runners and the cut off in seconds.

Here is the age group breakdown:

AG2014 Qualifiers2014 AG Total% Qualifiers2015 Qualifiers2015 AG Total% Qualifiers
F18-341460160669.09%1332144089.24%
F35-39667571111.68%628541111.61%
F40-44579499011.60%560455512.29%
F45-49551328216.79%509320715.87%
F50-54296202314.63%334204316.35%
F55-59172104716.43%13692514.70%
F60-647441917.66%7042916.32%
F65-692413617.65%3115120.53%
F70-7453813.16%3387.89%
F75-790110.00%1812.50%
F80+000.00%010.00%
M18-341288141819.08%1099125588.75%
M35-3959765219.16%58460209.70%
M40-44666649010.26%616598910.29%
M45-49765509715.01%691483114.30%
M50-54617389615.84%519365614.20%
M55-59382246615.49%347237314.62%
M60-64232122318.97%215119617.98%
M65-699849219.92%8147317.12%
M70-743317618.75%2517014.71%
M75-7954710.64%84219.05%
M80+080.00%21414.29%
Totals85117432011.45%77916849811.37%

Qualification rate is holding steady, only down 0.68%; the total number of qualifiers is down 8.46%.

Here are the margin distribution percentages:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute5256.17%4355.58%
1-2 minutes5246.16%4565.85%
2-3 minutes4835.68%4025.16%
3-4 minutes4295.04%4145.31%
4-5 minutes4054.76%3274.20%
5-10 minutes177020.80%161520.73%
10-20 minutes222026.08%210927.07%
20> minutes215525.32%203326.09%
Totals85117791

Squeaker Pack is 26.11% vs last year at 27.8%. The gap is staying stable, more people qualifying with 5+ minutes.

And the piece of data you probably have been waiting to read, the prediction.

The number of runners achieving 147 or better in the last 7 races in 2014 was 7234. Taking the 2015 qualifiers for these races and sorting on margin descending we get...

76 seconds or 1 minute 16 seconds

Not too surprising that it went up. Toronto 2015 performances were pretty close to 2014 - the record cut off year. So even being a smaller feeder, it will have an impact.

Next up is MCM!

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Race Analysis: Toronto Waterfront Marathon 2014 vs 2015

I am finally posting this analysis. It took me longer because I decided to automate the table generation process with comma-separated dump files (CSV) that I can import into a spreadsheet. It was so much faster formatting the data once I did that! I just need to do it now for the overall data updates.



Toronto Waterfront Marathon is another top 25 feeder with which I was not familiar until this week. IMO, it is relatively new. Inaugural race was in 2000, so only 15 years running which, compared to others like NYC, Boston, Chicago, LA, etc, is young. Shoot, even San Diego Rock n Roll is older (first event was in 1998).

The qualifier age group data...

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-348057413.94%7854314.36%
F35-393422115.38%3420316.75%
F40-444824519.59%4624418.85%
F45-495519927.64%3313624.26%
F50-542110120.79%2811025.45%
F55-59226136.07%32910.34%
F60-6441921.05%42119.05%
F65-691333.33%2633.33%
F70-74010.00%000.00%
F75-79000.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-349283111.07%8676811.20%
M35-394538611.66%5636215.47%
M40-445742913.29%6044513.48%
M45-496634918.91%7833223.49%
M50-545726521.51%4526417.05%
M55-593315621.15%4117723.16%
M60-64258031.25%287040.00%
M65-69123930.77%103231.25%
M70-741520.00%1812.50%
M75-79000.00%000.00%
M80+000.00%000.00%
Totals653396416.47%633375016.88%

Unlike most of the other races we have looked at in this qualification window, the qualification rate is up! But, like the trend, the participation rate is down. So we see fewer qualifiers 3.06%

Here is the margin data:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute477.20%406.32%
1-2 minutes456.89%518.06%
2-3 minutes365.51%243.79%
3-4 minutes294.44%294.58%
4-5 minutes294.44%294.58%
5-10 minutes10816.54%13621.48%
10-20 minutes18127.72%16325.75%
20> minutes17827.26%16125.43%
Totals653633

The Squeaker Pack in 2014 was 28.48%. In 2015 it was 27.33%, following the trend of runners qualifying with more margin.

Bonus Data:

AGYear< 1 min1 - 2 min2 - 3 min3 - 4 min4 - 5 min5 - 10 min10 - 20 min20 > min
F18-34TORONTO201410.0%8.7%8.7%2.5%5.0%13.8%18.8%32.5%
F18-34TORONTO20156.4%7.7%5.1%5.1%2.6%17.9%23.1%32.1%
F35-39TORONTO20145.9%2.9%8.8%11.8%14.7%5.9%29.4%20.6%
F35-39TORONTO20152.9%11.8%5.9%0.0%11.8%32.4%26.5%8.8%
F40-44TORONTO20146.3%4.2%2.1%4.2%6.3%20.8%31.3%25.0%
F40-44TORONTO20150.0%4.3%2.2%4.3%4.3%32.6%37.0%15.2%
F45-49TORONTO20149.1%7.3%0.0%7.3%0.0%18.2%32.7%25.5%
F45-49TORONTO20159.1%3.0%3.0%0.0%3.0%30.3%30.3%21.2%
F50-54TORONTO20144.8%9.5%0.0%4.8%14.3%23.8%19.0%23.8%
F50-54TORONTO201510.7%10.7%3.6%0.0%3.6%17.9%39.3%14.3%
F55-59TORONTO20144.5%4.5%0.0%4.5%4.5%13.6%36.4%31.8%
F55-59TORONTO20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%33.3%33.3%33.3%
F60-64TORONTO20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%75.0%
F60-64TORONTO20150.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%50.0%
F65-69TORONTO20140.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
F65-69TORONTO20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%50.0%
M18-34TORONTO20145.4%10.9%9.8%5.4%2.2%17.4%16.3%32.6%
M18-34TORONTO20155.8%7.0%1.2%4.7%7.0%20.9%17.4%36.0%
M35-39TORONTO201411.1%6.7%8.9%4.4%8.9%17.8%28.9%13.3%
M35-39TORONTO20158.9%12.5%7.1%8.9%5.4%17.9%23.2%16.1%
M40-44TORONTO20148.8%3.5%5.3%5.3%3.5%19.3%38.6%15.8%
M40-44TORONTO20158.3%11.7%6.7%3.3%5.0%25.0%18.3%21.7%
M45-49TORONTO20146.1%7.6%3.0%1.5%0.0%24.2%37.9%19.7%
M45-49TORONTO20159.0%7.7%2.6%6.4%3.8%20.5%25.6%24.4%
M50-54TORONTO20148.8%10.5%5.3%3.5%3.5%8.8%28.1%31.6%
M50-54TORONTO20154.4%8.9%2.2%6.7%4.4%15.6%33.3%24.4%
M55-59TORONTO20143.0%3.0%9.1%0.0%6.1%15.2%30.3%33.3%
M55-59TORONTO20152.4%9.8%4.9%2.4%2.4%17.1%26.8%34.1%
M60-64TORONTO20144.0%0.0%0.0%4.0%4.0%16.0%28.0%44.0%
M60-64TORONTO201510.7%3.6%0.0%3.6%0.0%14.3%39.3%28.6%
M65-69TORONTO20148.3%8.3%0.0%8.3%0.0%16.7%16.7%41.7%
M65-69TORONTO20150.0%0.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%0.0%60.0%
M70-74TORONTO20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
M70-74TORONTO20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%

I suspect that this won't change the prediction much. The difference in qualifiers is only 20 people and now that we are 8 races in with a large major in there, 20 qualifiers is not going to swing it too far either way.

I will likely make more automation improvements for the overall data so I will likely get to posting the next prediction early next week!