| AG | 2014 Qualifiers | 2014 AG Total | % Qualifiers | 2015 Qualifiers | 2015 AG Total | % Qualifiers |
| F18-34 | 320 | 2984 | 10.72% | 310 | 2774 | 11.18% |
| F35-39 | 204 | 1295 | 15.75% | 191 | 1199 | 15.93% |
| F40-44 | 160 | 995 | 16.08% | 149 | 930 | 16.02% |
| F45-49 | 140 | 613 | 22.84% | 142 | 616 | 23.05% |
| F50-54 | 77 | 431 | 17.87% | 97 | 417 | 23.26% |
| F55-59 | 53 | 244 | 21.72% | 47 | 219 | 21.46% |
| F60-64 | 25 | 98 | 25.51% | 18 | 98 | 18.37% |
| F65-69 | 9 | 26 | 34.62% | 10 | 33 | 30.30% |
| F70-74 | 0 | 7 | 0.00% | 1 | 5 | 20.00% |
| F75-79 | 0 | 2 | 0.00% | 0 | 1 | 0.00% |
| F80+ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 1 | 0.00% |
| M18-34 | 245 | 2601 | 9.42% | 203 | 2463 | 8.24% |
| M35-39 | 137 | 1231 | 11.13% | 130 | 1274 | 10.20% |
| M40-44 | 124 | 1146 | 10.82% | 129 | 1130 | 11.42% |
| M45-49 | 176 | 974 | 18.07% | 136 | 913 | 14.90% |
| M50-54 | 150 | 809 | 18.54% | 138 | 780 | 17.69% |
| M55-59 | 106 | 601 | 17.64% | 81 | 565 | 14.34% |
| M60-64 | 56 | 298 | 18.79% | 57 | 306 | 18.63% |
| M65-69 | 32 | 143 | 22.38% | 28 | 129 | 21.71% |
| M70-74 | 19 | 60 | 31.67% | 9 | 45 | 20.00% |
| M75-79 | 2 | 12 | 16.67% | 6 | 17 | 35.29% |
| M80+ | 0 | 1 | 0.00% | 1 | 5 | 20.00% |
| Totals | 2035 | 14571 | 15.46% | 1883 | 13920 | 16.91% |
Still trending with higher qualification percentages, but lower number of qualifiers.
2014 Margins as a percentage:
| AG | < 1 min | 1 - 2 min | 2 - 3 min | 3 - 4 min | 4 - 5 min | 5 - 10 min | 10 - 20 min | 20 > min |
| F18-34 | 4.38% | 6.88% | 6.56% | 4.06% | 5.94% | 20.31% | 25.00% | 26.88% |
| F35-39 | 5.88% | 4.41% | 7.35% | 5.88% | 5.39% | 22.06% | 26.47% | 22.55% |
| F40-44 | 6.25% | 5.63% | 7.50% | 6.25% | 3.13% | 25.00% | 22.50% | 23.75% |
| F45-49 | 4.29% | 4.29% | 8.57% | 4.29% | 7.14% | 16.43% | 22.86% | 32.14% |
| F50-54 | 6.49% | 7.79% | 5.19% | 1.30% | 3.90% | 18.18% | 35.06% | 22.08% |
| F55-59 | 1.89% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.89% | 3.77% | 18.87% | 37.74% | 35.85% |
| F60-64 | 12.00% | 0.00% | 4.00% | 8.00% | 12.00% | 20.00% | 28.00% | 16.00% |
| F65-69 | 11.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11.11% | 11.11% | 33.33% | 33.33% |
| F70-74 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| F75-79 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| F80+ | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| M18-34 | 6.53% | 6.12% | 4.08% | 2.86% | 6.53% | 20.00% | 24.49% | 29.39% |
| M35-39 | 8.03% | 4.38% | 2.92% | 8.03% | 9.49% | 21.17% | 29.20% | 16.79% |
| M40-44 | 10.48% | 8.06% | 8.06% | 3.23% | 5.65% | 19.35% | 27.42% | 17.74% |
| M45-49 | 8.52% | 5.68% | 7.39% | 3.98% | 3.98% | 18.18% | 29.55% | 22.73% |
| M50-54 | 6.00% | 7.33% | 4.00% | 2.67% | 4.00% | 24.00% | 23.33% | 28.67% |
| M55-59 | 3.77% | 3.77% | 6.60% | 3.77% | 2.83% | 23.58% | 24.53% | 31.13% |
| M60-64 | 3.57% | 5.36% | 1.79% | 1.79% | 5.36% | 19.64% | 23.21% | 39.29% |
| M65-69 | 9.38% | 6.25% | 3.13% | 3.13% | 3.13% | 21.88% | 21.88% | 31.25% |
| M70-74 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.26% | 10.53% | 0.00% | 10.53% | 21.05% | 52.63% |
| M75-79 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% |
| M80+ | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 4.94% | 3.45% | 3.75% | 3.26% | 4.24% | 17.29% | 20.71% | 24.19% |
2015 Margins as a percentage:
| AG | < 1 min | 1 - 2 min | 2 - 3 min | 3 - 4 min | 4 - 5 min | 5 - 10 min | 10 - 20 min | 20 > min |
| F18-34 | 2.90% | 3.55% | 3.55% | 6.13% | 3.87% | 21.29% | 28.39% | 30.32% |
| F35-39 | 5.24% | 6.81% | 4.71% | 5.76% | 2.09% | 22.51% | 28.27% | 24.61% |
| F40-44 | 2.68% | 7.38% | 3.36% | 4.70% | 6.04% | 22.15% | 22.15% | 31.54% |
| F45-49 | 4.93% | 7.75% | 1.41% | 6.34% | 3.52% | 20.42% | 23.94% | 31.69% |
| F50-54 | 4.12% | 4.12% | 9.28% | 5.15% | 6.19% | 12.37% | 22.68% | 36.08% |
| F55-59 | 2.13% | 4.26% | 6.38% | 0.00% | 2.13% | 8.51% | 42.55% | 34.04% |
| F60-64 | 0.00% | 5.56% | 11.11% | 5.56% | 0.00% | 11.11% | 22.22% | 44.44% |
| F65-69 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% | 40.00% | 50.00% |
| F70-74 | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| F75-79 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| F80+ | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| M18-34 | 6.90% | 7.39% | 3.45% | 7.39% | 3.94% | 25.12% | 23.15% | 22.66% |
| M35-39 | 5.38% | 2.31% | 6.15% | 6.15% | 6.92% | 21.54% | 31.54% | 20.00% |
| M40-44 | 10.08% | 6.20% | 3.10% | 3.88% | 1.55% | 27.13% | 24.03% | 24.03% |
| M45-49 | 8.09% | 5.15% | 7.35% | 5.15% | 2.94% | 18.38% | 24.26% | 28.68% |
| M50-54 | 3.62% | 1.45% | 3.62% | 6.52% | 7.25% | 21.74% | 29.71% | 26.09% |
| M55-59 | 4.94% | 3.70% | 4.94% | 2.47% | 3.70% | 8.64% | 34.57% | 37.04% |
| M60-64 | 3.51% | 7.02% | 3.51% | 7.02% | 5.26% | 19.30% | 21.05% | 33.33% |
| M65-69 | 3.57% | 3.57% | 0.00% | 10.71% | 3.57% | 21.43% | 28.57% | 28.57% |
| M70-74 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.33% | 11.11% | 44.44% |
| M75-79 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.33% | 0.00% | 66.67% |
| M80+ | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| 7.64% | 3.46% | 3.77% | 3.77% | 2.68% | 16.29% | 20.83% | 32.47% |
Similar pattern continues, trending towards qualifying with more time - though these averages will be skewed by age groups with few qualifiers (see F70-74 - makes the <1 min group look bigger). Kind of why I don't really know that I like the age group margin breakdown as it gets a little weird in the smaller qualifying age groups.
Now for the number everyone cares about. What is the current prediction.
2014 cutoff margin of 148 seconds = 1736 runners across the two races analyzed.
The 1736th runner in the 2015 races has a margin of...
95 seconds, or 1:35
Portland is up next in the analysis. Hopefully by the end of the week!
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