Tuesday, October 13, 2015

New Totals with Twin Cities 2015

Alright folks, with Twin Cities added to the totals we are looking at the following Age Group qualifier data:

AG2014 Qualifiers2014 AG Total% Qualifiers2015 Qualifiers2015 AG Total% Qualifiers
F18-34320298410.72%310277411.18%
F35-39204129515.75%191119915.93%
F40-4416099516.08%14993016.02%
F45-4914061322.84%14261623.05%
F50-547743117.87%9741723.26%
F55-595324421.72%4721921.46%
F60-64259825.51%189818.37%
F65-6992634.62%103330.30%
F70-74070.00%1520.00%
F75-79020.00%010.00%
F80+000.00%010.00%
M18-3424526019.42%20324638.24%
M35-39137123111.13%130127410.20%
M40-44124114610.82%129113011.42%
M45-4917697418.07%13691314.90%
M50-5415080918.54%13878017.69%
M55-5910660117.64%8156514.34%
M60-645629818.79%5730618.63%
M65-693214322.38%2812921.71%
M70-74196031.67%94520.00%
M75-7921216.67%61735.29%
M80+010.00%1520.00%
Totals20351457115.46%18831392016.91%

Still trending with higher qualification percentages, but lower number of qualifiers. 

2014 Margins as a percentage:

AG< 1 min1 - 2 min2 - 3 min3 - 4 min4 - 5 min5 - 10 min10 - 20 min20 > min
F18-344.38%6.88%6.56%4.06%5.94%20.31%25.00%26.88%
F35-395.88%4.41%7.35%5.88%5.39%22.06%26.47%22.55%
F40-446.25%5.63%7.50%6.25%3.13%25.00%22.50%23.75%
F45-494.29%4.29%8.57%4.29%7.14%16.43%22.86%32.14%
F50-546.49%7.79%5.19%1.30%3.90%18.18%35.06%22.08%
F55-591.89%0.00%0.00%1.89%3.77%18.87%37.74%35.85%
F60-6412.00%0.00%4.00%8.00%12.00%20.00%28.00%16.00%
F65-6911.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%11.11%11.11%33.33%33.33%
F70-740.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
F75-790.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
F80+0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
M18-346.53%6.12%4.08%2.86%6.53%20.00%24.49%29.39%
M35-398.03%4.38%2.92%8.03%9.49%21.17%29.20%16.79%
M40-4410.48%8.06%8.06%3.23%5.65%19.35%27.42%17.74%
M45-498.52%5.68%7.39%3.98%3.98%18.18%29.55%22.73%
M50-546.00%7.33%4.00%2.67%4.00%24.00%23.33%28.67%
M55-593.77%3.77%6.60%3.77%2.83%23.58%24.53%31.13%
M60-643.57%5.36%1.79%1.79%5.36%19.64%23.21%39.29%
M65-699.38%6.25%3.13%3.13%3.13%21.88%21.88%31.25%
M70-740.00%0.00%5.26%10.53%0.00%10.53%21.05%52.63%
M75-790.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%50.00%0.00%50.00%
M80+0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4.94%3.45%3.75%3.26%4.24%17.29%20.71%24.19%

2015 Margins as a percentage:

AG< 1 min1 - 2 min2 - 3 min3 - 4 min4 - 5 min5 - 10 min10 - 20 min20 > min
F18-342.90%3.55%3.55%6.13%3.87%21.29%28.39%30.32%
F35-395.24%6.81%4.71%5.76%2.09%22.51%28.27%24.61%
F40-442.68%7.38%3.36%4.70%6.04%22.15%22.15%31.54%
F45-494.93%7.75%1.41%6.34%3.52%20.42%23.94%31.69%
F50-544.12%4.12%9.28%5.15%6.19%12.37%22.68%36.08%
F55-592.13%4.26%6.38%0.00%2.13%8.51%42.55%34.04%
F60-640.00%5.56%11.11%5.56%0.00%11.11%22.22%44.44%
F65-690.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%10.00%40.00%50.00%
F70-74100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
F75-790.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
F80+0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
M18-346.90%7.39%3.45%7.39%3.94%25.12%23.15%22.66%
M35-395.38%2.31%6.15%6.15%6.92%21.54%31.54%20.00%
M40-4410.08%6.20%3.10%3.88%1.55%27.13%24.03%24.03%
M45-498.09%5.15%7.35%5.15%2.94%18.38%24.26%28.68%
M50-543.62%1.45%3.62%6.52%7.25%21.74%29.71%26.09%
M55-594.94%3.70%4.94%2.47%3.70%8.64%34.57%37.04%
M60-643.51%7.02%3.51%7.02%5.26%19.30%21.05%33.33%
M65-693.57%3.57%0.00%10.71%3.57%21.43%28.57%28.57%
M70-740.00%0.00%11.11%0.00%0.00%33.33%11.11%44.44%
M75-790.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%33.33%0.00%66.67%
M80+0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%
7.64%3.46%3.77%3.77%2.68%16.29%20.83%32.47%

Similar pattern continues, trending towards qualifying with more time - though these averages will be skewed by age groups with few qualifiers (see F70-74 - makes the <1 min group look bigger). Kind of why I don't really know that I like the age group margin breakdown as it gets a little weird in the smaller qualifying age groups.

Now for the number everyone cares about. What is the current prediction.

2014 cutoff margin of 148 seconds = 1736 runners across the two races analyzed.

The 1736th runner in the 2015 races has a margin of...

95 seconds, or 1:35

Portland is up next in the analysis. Hopefully by the end of the week!

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