Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Impact of Chicago Marathon on the Cutoff Prediction


I think we are starting to see enough critical mass of qualifier data that the change of the cutoff prediction from race to race will be less volatile.

As you may or may not have heard, the weather at Chicago this year was sub-optimal. Mid 70s at the finish for most folks (it was 75F when I finished with 3:46 and I was only about 6 or 7 minutes behind the official start in Corral C). According to this website the race start conditions in 2014 were partly cloudy and 46F, with a high of 64F. 2015 it was 54F and clear with a high of 78F. However the rate of BQ year over year for that race was only 0.09% lower. 

Anyway, onto the numbers.

AG2014 Qualifiers2014 AG Total% Qualifiers2015 Qualifiers2015 AG Total% Qualifiers
F18-341192139798.53%1094126198.67%
F35-39561495611.32%530475311.15%
F40-44476428611.11%444391711.34%
F45-49434276315.71%432282415.30%
F50-54241172913.94%270178415.13%
F55-5913291014.51%11282413.59%
F60-646336517.26%5937715.65%
F65-692012016.67%2513318.80%
F70-7453414.71%3358.57%
F75-790100.00%1714.29%
F80+000.00%010.00%
M18-341024118858.62%881105978.31%
M35-3948755498.78%47451599.19%
M40-4453854849.81%48950519.68%
M45-49608428314.20%542410013.22%
M50-54488327514.90%419310213.51%
M55-59309209114.78%269200813.40%
M60-64179104117.20%158101815.52%
M65-594527316.48%3727313.55%
M65-693214322.38%2812921.71%
M70-743015719.11%1814612.33%
M75-7954411.36%84020.00%
M80+080.00%21315.38%
Totals68696338510.84%62955891010.69%

The numbers have stayed similar with the inclusion of Chicago. Even though the rate of BQ 2014 to 2015 was about the same (less than .1% difference), there were fewer qualifiers. This will have downward pressure on the 2017 cutoff. 

Here is the margin breakdown:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute4115.98%3445.46%
1-2 minutes4156.04%3325.27%
2-3 minutes3795.52%3225.12%
3-4 minutes3455.02%3255.16%
4-5 minutes3144.57%2594.11%
5-10 minutes143320.86%129020.49%
10-20 minutes179126.07%172227.36%
20> minutes178125.93%170127.02%
Totals68696295

Nothing new, the Squeaker Pack in 2015 has shrunk from 27.14% to 25.13% with the biggest gains in the 10+ minutes of margin.

The total number of runners in the 5 races analyzed with 147 seconds (or 2:28) of qualification margin in 2014 was 5658.

Sorting by margin in seconds descending, the 5658th runner in the five 2015 races analyzed as a margin of...

77 seconds or 1 minute 17 seconds
Next up in the Analysis is the Columbus Marathon. 

Thanks everyone for reading and I hope you're enjoying it! 


5 comments:

  1. Thank you for doing this! I have been trying to BQ for years and finally did with a 2:20 margin. Although I know anything can happen, your analysis gives me hope that I might find myself at the starting line in 2017!

    ReplyDelete
  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I agree the swings will be less volatile, at least until Boston. Ultimately, I think the entire analysis hinges on Boston as it did this past year. If there is good weather there, the cutoff swings dramatically (far more so than any other race and even accounting for the raw # of qualifiers). We'll see...

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks for doing this! I'll be following this blog this year, much like how I followed Boston Qualifier Stats' blog last year.

    One comment about the first table: I think the numbers for the men in the 2014 columns have been shifted one row upward (I don't believe there were more than 11 thousand women 80 years or older who ran Chicago last year).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you! Yes, because there are no F80+ results my query doesn't return the age group and when I copied the results over, it was one record up as you said. I've updated it!

      Delete