Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Cut Off Prediction - Four Races In

Steamtown's results were nearly identical to last year, just slightly down. Unlike the other three races which had qualification numbers/rates that were down, overall. Even though Steamtown is one of the smallest top 25 feeders, it actually had more impact that I was expecting (likely due to the fact that the performances were on par with 2014 vs the downtrend of the others).

Age Group Totals:

AG2014 Qualifiers2014 AG Total% Qualifiers2015 Qualifiers2015 AG Total% Qualifiers
F18-3446647229.87%42543709.73%
F35-39264200113.19%255184113.85%
F40-44224164513.62%206150113.72%
F45-49212111119.08%210107519.53%
F50-5411274814.97%13672218.84%
F55-596843815.53%6539616.41%
F60-643718819.68%2718914.29%
F65-69135922.03%147817.95%
F70-7432015.00%2238.70%
F75-79080.00%060.00%
F80+000.00%010.00%
M18-3435539678.95%28536547.80%
M35-3918218779.70%188187010.05%
M40-4418018149.92%17517839.81%
M45-49251155916.10%210142314.76%
M50-54205125816.30%191119615.97%
M55-5914689016.40%13087114.93%
M60-649848320.29%8548617.49%
M65-59137517.33%88010.00%
M65-693214322.38%2812921.71%
M70-742210221.57%98410.71%
M75-7932512.00%72924.14%
M80+050.00%11010.00%
Totals28862313812.47%26572181712.18%

So, as you can see, we are a bit down overall in both finishers and qualifiers. Down 1321 qualifiers so far, which is 5.7% of last year's total.

Here are the margin totals, year over year:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute1816.27%1405.27%
1-2 minutes1655.72%1485.57%
2-3 minutes1715.93%1335.01%
3-4 minutes1444.99%1676.29%
4-5 minutes1475.09%1053.95%
5-10 minutes63021.83%54120.36%
10-20 minutes73625.50%71626.95%
20> minutes71224.67%70726.61%
Totals28862657

The Squeaker Pack (under 5 minutes) is 26.1% in 2015 vs 2014, it was 28%. So we are still seeing a shift to more runners with qualification of 5 minutes or more.

For the 2014 race results compiled, the number of runners with the 2016 cutoff margin of 147 was 2457.

Taking the 2015 qualifirs, sorting qualifiers by margin descending, the 2457th runner has a margin of...

81 seconds or 1:21

Initially I was surprised by this, but then again, Steamtown performances were similar to last year (and we saw how big the cut was for 2016), so it makes sense that we are seeing a bump up of 11 seconds to the cutoff prediction.

We'll see how Chicago affects the numbers - it was warmer than normal and that could be a factor.

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