Friday, October 16, 2015

2017 Cutoff Analysis as of Portland Marathon

With the inclusion of the Portland Marathon results we have a new cutoff calculation that, as expected, is downward.

Age group totals:

AG2014 Qualifiers2014 AG Total% Qualifiers2015 Qualifiers2015 AG Total% Qualifiers
F18-3441644029.45%37540329.30%
F35-39232183112.67%213166212.82%
F40-44192147413.03%171133012.86%
F45-4916795617.47%16893218.03%
F50-549767114.46%11864218.38%
F55-596341015.37%5835716.25%
F60-643317518.86%2217612.50%
F65-69135623.21%127116.90%
F70-7421910.53%2219.52%
F75-79070.00%050.00%
F80+000.00%010.00%
M18-3430236398.30%25733817.60%
M35-3915616939.21%15417099.01%
M40-4414716259.05%15015579.63%
M45-49207136715.14%160121913.13%
M50-54170109815.48%157103515.17%
M55-5912078615.27%9873913.26%
M60-647642817.76%6542415.33%
M65-5985714.04%4636.35%
M65-693214322.38%2812921.71%
M70-74209221.74%97711.69%
M75-792219.52%62623.08%
M80+040.00%1911.11%
Total24552095411.72%22281959711.37%

Qualification rate is down - I realized that I was calculating the overall percentage incorrectly before by taking the average of all the age group percentages. But that will cause the small age groups to skew the averages. Duh. Not sure what took me so long to realize that. So instead just total qualifiers/total finishers. Still, qualifier rate is down, overall, as it number of qualifiers.

Here is the margin breakdown, overall:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute1586.44%1155.16%
1-2 minutes1365.54%1114.98%
2-3 minutes1455.91%1064.76%
3-4 minutes1164.73%1295.79%
4-5 minutes1275.17%934.17%
5-10 minutes52921.55%45720.51%
10-20 minutes62925.62%61027.38%
20> minutes61525.05%60727.24%
Totals24552228

We're still seeing the margin has shifted a bit from under 5 minutes to over 5 minutes (with the bulk in the 10-20+ range). 2014 total under 5 minutes is 27.78%. 2015 total under 5 minutes is 24.87%.

Onto the cutoff calcuation. The number of runners at 2:28 and under in 2014 is 2091 runners.

Sorting qualifiers by margin descending, the 2091th runner has a margin of...

70 seconds, or 1:10 seconds 

Next up is Steamtown and Chicago. Still need to check if Berlin has archived the results properly where I can get the age group - however as we've seen, Berlin seems to skew the results a bit given its location so it may even be the right choice to exclude it from the overall prediction (and perhaps sub in whatever the 26th top feeder is? Is this information even known, i.e. what is the 26th top feeder race?)

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