Wednesday, October 7, 2015

2014/2015 St George Marathon Qualifiers Breakdown


I ran the St George Marathon in 2014. The high that year was 87, low of 55 for the City of Saint George. For 2015, it looked fairly similar, slightly cooler at high of 82, low of 57. The race also started on time in 2015, versus 15 minutes late in 2014 (which means just a smidge higher temperatures at the finish). All in all, conditions were slightly better in 2015 but marginal, really. Not sure it would result in a hugely different finish times (though please feel free to chime in if you feel otherwise, that is just my conjecture).

2015 had fewer finishers. This race has a lottery, so I'm not sure if they just took fewer in the lottery, had fewer guaranteed entries and legacies, and/or fewer charity runners. It resulted in 4.8% fewer qualifiers, even though the qualifying rate is actually up by 2.3%.


AG Group2014 AG Total2014 QualifiersPercentage2015 AG Total2015 QualifiersPercentage
M1834733689.28%7127310.25%
M35395246712.79%4986813.65%
M40444756413.47%4526414.16%
M45494109523.17%3926616.84%
M50543448223.84%3387221.30%
M55593065317.32%2694817.84%
M60641582415.19%1582616.46%
M6569821821.95%671319.40%
M7074361130.56%26726.92%
M75799111.11%9333.33%
M80+100.00%200.00%
F183489513114.64%83712715.17%
F353964113821.53%57112121.19%
F40444589119.87%4288720.33%
F45492786824.46%2997725.75%
F50542334117.60%2145827.10%
F55591352720.00%1142320.18%
F6064651421.54%581118.97%
F656915320.00%18316.67%
F7074700.00%3133.33%
F7579200.00%000.00%
F80+000.00%100.00%
Totals580799615.38%546694817.68%


Because this data proved to be something that people started caring about when the figuring out where we thought the cutoff might be, I am including a breakdown of distribution across chunks of time under the standard.

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute555.52%414.32%
1-2 minutes555.52%525.49%
2-3 minutes656.53%424.43%
3-4 minutes424.22%576.01%
4-5 minutes393.92%384.01%
5-10 minutes20620.68%19120.15%
10-20 minutes27427.51%25827.22%
20> minutes26026.10%26928.38%
Totals996948

The total percentage of under 5 minute qualifiers is 24.26% for 2015. 25.70% for 2014. So we are also seeing a slight shift (1.44%) over from under 5 to over 5 minutes. But this is just one race so we'll see how the distribution of margins shakes out over time.

The methodology used by Boston Qualifier Stats is slightly different than what I was envisioning. She took the number of people at BQ cutoff 2015 to project the BQ cutoff of 2016. So, if we just use the one race we have here, we would take the total of all folks with margins of 2:28 or higher in 2014, and then figure out where that cutoff would land in the 2015 results. It is the closest match the process that actually happens with Boston Marathon. And I really can't think of a route that would be more accurate.

If we just do a straight percentage on time, 4.8% off 2:28 is 7.1 seconds. 2:20

Let's see what we get for number of folks with 2:28 or better in 2014.

2014: 854 runners with 2:28 or better
2015: the 854th runner, sorting on margin descending, is a margin of 122 seconds or 2:02

Next races other than Berlin (if Berlin puts up their results in the archive, I should be able to load it up fairly easily) are Portland and Twin Cities which I anticipate taking a bit longer than St George just due to the format.

3 comments:

  1. Welcome to the club! Happy to pass the torch. Good luck with your project. I am hoping to write up a more formal report on my findings from last year.

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  2. Is there a way to break down the "Margin" table to slice & dice the totals by AG and gender?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Doable! I can try to do that for the next race analysis - just a bit more complicated of a query.

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