Monday, October 26, 2015

2014/2015 Chicago Marathon Analysis



Loading up these results made the laptop fan go on overtime! I thought there were more finishers last year but after parsing and storing them all, there were fewer results in 2015 than 2014.

I ran this race this year (3:46:28 was my finish time: just an OK result for me) and the crowds were awesome! A bit of a shlep for me to get out there with the baby and husband but it was worth it. I may wait a few years before I run it again though just because of time and costs. I had trained in the heat here in San Diego (all my 20 milers ended in 80 degree weather - and that's with started before 7am), so I didn't find the conditions at Chicago this year to be bad. However, I think other folks that haven't been sweating their keisters off during the training cycle thought it was hot towards the end (was about 75 when I finished at ~11:15am). I'm sure that had an effect on the overall finish times.

The other thing to note on the results is that there is no age designation, just the division. One of the divisions is 16-19, unfortunately. So with those results, I have no idea if they are 18+ or under 18. Which means I can't make a determination on their eligibility for Boston. In both years I excluded them so the effect of the analysis should be minimal (not likely a huge slew of 18 year olds decided to run the marathon with the intent to qualify for Boston in one year versus another).

So onto the numbers.

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3472692577.84%66982498.11%
F35-39297295510.05%27529129.44%
F40-4425226419.54%23824169.85%
F45-49222165213.44%222174912.69%
F50-5412998113.15%134106212.62%
F55-596447213.56%4742810.98%
F60-642617714.69%3218817.02%
F65-6976111.48%115520.00%
F70-7421414.29%1128.33%
F75-59020.00%11100.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-3466979188.45%59669438.58%
M35-3930536728.31%28632898.70%
M40-4435836709.75%31432689.61%
M45-49357272413.11%332267712.40%
M50-54283201714.03%228190611.96%
M55-59163120113.57%139113712.23%
M60-648155814.52%7353213.72%
M65-593219816.16%2919315.03%
M70-7485514.55%96214.52%
M75-5921910.53%1119.09%
M80+030.00%1333.33%
Totals3983402479.90%3638370939.81%

Finishers and qualifiers are down. Qualification rate is down, probably in part due to the less than ideal temperature conditions. Total qualifiers are down by 345 which translates to a decrease of 8.66%.

Here are the numbers for margin breakdown:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute2305.77%2045.61%
1-2 minutes2506.28%1845.06%
2-3 minutes2085.22%1895.20%
3-4 minutes2015.05%1584.34%
4-5 minutes1674.19%1544.23%
5-10 minutes80320.16%74920.59%
10-20 minutes105526.49%100627.65%
20> minutes106926.84%99427.32%
Totals39833638

This is following the same trend we have been seeing in the other feeder races. The Squeaker Pack (under 5 minutes) is smaller, at 24.44% in 2015, as opposed to 26.51% in 2014. Qualifiers have been finishing with more "cushion" than in 2014. However, important to keep reiterating that the total numbers are down, so, the fact that the margins have shifted towards 5+ minutes, doesn't change the fact that there are fewer qualifiers.

Bonus data, margin by age group:

AGYear< 1 min1 - 2 min2 - 3 min3 - 4 min4 - 5 min5 - 10 min10 - 20 min20 > min
F18-34CHI20146.1%6.6%4.7%5.8%3.9%20.4%23.6%29.1%
F18-34CHI20155.2%3.3%5.7%4.8%3.6%23.2%24.7%29.6%
F35-39CHI20144.4%6.4%4.7%6.4%4.0%19.5%25.6%29.0%
F35-39CHI20158.7%6.9%5.5%4.0%4.0%18.5%24.0%28.4%
F40-44CHI20144.8%8.3%6.0%7.5%4.0%21.0%24.6%23.8%
F40-44CHI20154.2%4.6%6.3%3.8%4.6%21.0%28.2%27.3%
F45-49CHI20144.5%4.5%4.1%2.7%3.2%17.6%27.5%36.0%
F45-49CHI20155.9%5.0%5.4%2.3%5.4%13.5%34.2%28.4%
F50-54CHI20147.0%3.9%3.9%5.4%5.4%20.9%29.5%24.0%
F50-54CHI20156.0%7.5%4.5%4.5%3.0%14.2%30.6%29.9%
F55-59CHI20144.7%3.1%4.7%4.7%4.7%15.6%31.3%31.3%
F55-59CHI20156.4%2.1%8.5%0.0%4.3%17.0%40.4%21.3%
F60-64CHI201415.4%7.7%0.0%7.7%3.8%11.5%19.2%34.6%
F60-64CHI20150.0%3.1%3.1%0.0%0.0%12.5%28.1%53.1%
F65-69CHI20140.0%0.0%14.3%0.0%0.0%14.3%14.3%57.1%
F65-69CHI20159.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%36.4%9.1%45.5%
F70-74CHI20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
F70-74CHI20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
F75-79CHI20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
F75-79CHI20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
M18-34CHI20144.9%6.1%6.0%2.5%4.8%26.8%21.7%27.2%
M18-34CHI20155.2%5.0%3.7%3.9%3.2%24.0%24.7%30.4%
M35-39CHI20148.2%7.2%4.3%4.6%4.3%17.7%33.8%20.0%
M35-39CHI20155.9%6.3%5.9%5.6%4.5%21.3%33.2%17.1%
M40-44CHI20145.9%7.5%7.5%7.0%4.7%20.1%29.6%17.6%
M40-44CHI20156.4%5.7%4.1%6.7%5.1%19.4%33.4%19.1%
M45-49CHI20144.8%3.9%3.6%5.3%4.8%18.8%29.1%29.7%
M45-49CHI20155.7%4.8%6.3%3.3%6.0%18.7%28.6%26.5%
M50-54CHI20149.5%6.7%6.0%4.6%4.9%19.1%28.3%20.8%
M50-54CHI20155.7%6.1%7.0%5.7%4.4%23.2%21.5%26.3%
M55-59CHI20145.5%6.1%4.3%4.9%1.2%12.3%29.4%36.2%
M55-59CHI20153.6%5.0%3.6%5.8%5.0%18.7%32.4%25.9%
M60-64CHI20142.5%7.4%12.3%8.6%2.5%18.5%25.9%22.2%
M60-64CHI20155.5%5.5%2.7%2.7%5.5%21.9%15.1%41.1%
M65-59CHI20143.1%9.4%0.0%0.0%6.3%6.3%34.4%40.6%
M65-59CHI20150.0%3.4%6.9%3.4%3.4%17.2%37.9%27.6%
M70-74CHI20140.00%12.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%12.50%25.00%50.00%
M70-74CHI201511.11%11.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%22.22%55.56%
M75-79CHI20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%50.0%
M75-79CHI20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
M80+CHI20140.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
M80+CHI20150.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%

Next update, I will calculate the predicted cutoff. Given the above, I think we are going to see a drop in the cutoff.

2 comments:

  1. Weather is looking nice for NYCM. :) I'd wait.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Morey000!

      I calculate the prediction after every race regardless of the future races. I will do the same with NYCM - maybe we'll watch the cutoff prediction go down and up!

      Delete