Monday, October 19, 2015

2014 vs 2015 Steamtown Marathon Qualification Analysis



Up next is a race I've heard a lot about, and looking at pictures looks absolutely beautiful. Small race, with just over 2200 finishers; it has a high rate of qualification!

This year's numbers look very similar to last year.

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-345032015.63%5033814.79%
F35-393217018.82%4217923.46%
F40-443217118.71%3517120.47%
F45-494515529.03%4214329.37%
F50-54157719.48%188022.50%
F55-5952817.86%73917.95%
F60-6441330.77%51338.46%
F65-69030.00%2728.57%
F70-7411100.00%020.00%
F75-59010.00%010.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-345332816.16%2827310.26%
M35-392618414.13%3416121.12%
M40-443318917.46%2522611.06%
M45-494419222.92%5020424.51%
M50-543516021.88%3416121.12%
M55-592610425.00%3213224.24%
M60-64225540.00%206232.26%
M65-5951827.78%41723.53%
M70-7421020.00%070.00%
M75-591425.00%1333.33%
M80+010.00%010.00%
Totals431218419.73%429222019.32%

Number of finishers nearly identical as well as the qualification numbers. The rate is slightly down, 0.41%.

The overall margin distribution:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute235.34%255.83%
1-2 minutes296.73%378.62%
2-3 minutes266.03%276.29%
3-4 minutes286.50%388.86%
4-5 minutes204.64%122.80%
5-10 minutes10123.43%8419.58%
10-20 minutes10724.83%10624.71%
20> minutes9722.51%10023.31%
Totals431429

Percentage of qualifiers in the under 5 minutes range is actually significantly up this year. 2014, under 5 minute group, heretofore referred to as the Squeaker Pack was 29.23%. In 2015, the Squeaker Pack was 32.40% of the Boston Qualifier total.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out on the overall number. This is one of the smaller feeders with nearly identical qualification total, so I'm not expecting a drastic difference, however looking at the margin breakdown, it may not be as insignificant as I initially thought.

Bonus for the margin data junkies (if an AG is missing, it means no qualifications either year):

AGYear< 1 min1 - 2 min2 - 3 min3 - 4 min4 - 5 min5 - 10 min10 - 20 min20 > min
F18-34STEAM20144.0%2.0%10.0%10.0%8.0%24.0%22.0%20.0%
F18-34STEAM20154.0%10.0%6.0%2.0%6.0%18.0%18.0%36.0%
F35-39STEAM20143.1%18.8%3.1%6.3%3.1%21.9%28.1%15.6%
F35-39STEAM20152.4%9.5%9.5%11.9%2.4%16.7%26.2%21.4%
F40-44STEAM20149.4%9.4%3.1%0.0%0.0%37.5%25.0%15.6%
F40-44STEAM20152.9%22.9%8.6%5.7%0.0%11.4%31.4%17.1%
F45-49STEAM20146.7%4.4%2.2%6.7%6.7%20.0%35.6%17.8%
F45-49STEAM20152.4%9.5%0.0%7.1%4.8%14.3%26.2%35.7%
F50-54STEAM201413.3%13.3%0.0%6.7%0.0%33.3%26.7%6.7%
F50-54STEAM20155.6%0.0%5.6%5.6%0.0%22.2%33.3%27.8%
F55-59STEAM20140.0%0.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%20.0%0.0%40.0%
F55-59STEAM20150.0%14.3%14.3%0.0%0.0%42.9%28.6%0.0%
F60-64STEAM20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%75.0%
F60-64STEAM20150.0%0.0%0.0%20.0%0.0%20.0%20.0%40.0%
F65-69STEAM20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
F65-69STEAM201550.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%
F70-74STEAM20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
F70-74STEAM20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
M18-34STEAM20143.8%5.7%5.7%1.9%5.7%24.5%26.4%26.4%
M18-34STEAM201510.7%10.7%10.7%14.3%0.0%25.0%25.0%3.6%
M35-39STEAM20147.7%3.8%11.5%11.5%0.0%30.8%30.8%3.8%
M35-39STEAM201514.7%5.9%2.9%11.8%2.9%35.3%23.5%2.9%
M40-44STEAM201412.1%6.1%3.0%3.0%3.0%30.3%15.2%27.3%
M40-44STEAM20158.0%8.0%20.0%20.0%0.0%16.0%16.0%12.0%
M45-49STEAM20142.3%11.4%9.1%9.1%6.8%13.6%22.7%25.0%
M45-49STEAM20154.0%4.0%4.0%6.0%0.0%26.0%30.0%26.0%
M50-54STEAM20148.6%8.6%11.4%5.7%8.6%14.3%22.9%20.0%
M50-54STEAM201511.8%8.8%5.9%11.8%2.9%11.8%23.5%23.5%
M55-59STEAM20140.0%3.8%0.0%19.2%7.7%23.1%11.5%34.6%
M55-59STEAM20153.1%6.3%6.3%9.4%9.4%18.8%18.8%28.1%
M60-64STEAM20140.0%0.0%4.5%4.5%0.0%22.7%31.8%36.4%
M60-64STEAM20155.0%5.0%0.0%10.0%5.0%15.0%35.0%25.0%
M65-59STEAM20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%40.0%
M65-59STEAM20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%75.0%
M70-74STEAM20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%50.0%
M70-74STEAM20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
M75-79STEAM20140.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%
M75-79STEAM20150.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%

Chicago according to the data I'm seeing has 46000 finishers and is my next race it process. That is going to be an interesting one to look at. I haven't yet started the process of grabbing results, though I've started setting up how I need to grab it and it's many pages even at the max result set of 1000. Shouldn't result in too much extra work as it's all just setting up the parsing process however, just want to note that it's a lot of data and I'm hoping by the end of the week I'll have it done. We'll see! October is really jam packed with feeder races!

Next post I'll do the overall prediction update!

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