Thursday, October 29, 2015

Columbus Marathon 2014 vs 2015 Qualifier Analysis


One of the cool things about doing this compilation is that I am learning about great races around the country with fast courses and (usually) favorable weather conditions. I have never been to Ohio other than airports for connecting flights but I might have to put this one on the to-do list! The race has been around since 1980 so I would imagine it is a well-oiled machine with minimal hiccups. Runner's World named it in the top 20 marathons in the US.

The weather for both years was very similar and, in a word, fantastic. In 2014 it was 45F and in 2015 42F at the start with highs only in the 50s, with no rain. Sign me up.

Here's what we're looking at as far as age group data:

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3412212399.85%10398910.41%
F35-394241910.02%313369.23%
F40-44313468.96%3727413.50%
F45-493023013.04%1917111.11%
F50-541914812.84%2311520.00%
F55-5995616.07%145127.45%
F60-6462920.69%62524.00%
F65-6911010.00%2922.22%
F70-74030.00%010.00%
F75-59010.00%010.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-34127119110.66%10096310.38%
M35-39394558.57%353709.46%
M40-444542610.56%3635610.11%
M45-496034917.19%4329114.78%
M50-544827117.71%3121514.42%
M55-591815811.39%2514417.36%
M60-64177722.08%147718.18%
M65-5952917.24%43112.90%
M70-741128.33%2922.22%
M75-59020.00%020.00%
M80+000.00%010.00%
Totals620545111.37%525443111.85%

Rate of qualification is up!

However, like most of the races we've analyzed so far, participation/finishers are down, quite significantly in this race at -18.7% of last year's total (note that I exclude "bad data" wherein I can't determine the age group, and under 18 participants are not included here, however, it's only 10 and 9 participants, respectively... marginal).

Because of this, the number of qualifiers is down, at -15.3% of last year's total.

This race also had a slightly different margin breakdown that we've been seeing in the other races:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute396.29%315.90%
1-2 minutes416.61%448.38%
2-3 minutes345.48%356.67%
3-4 minutes386.13%315.90%
4-5 minutes375.97%224.19%
5-10 minutes13321.45%11221.33%
10-20 minutes16025.81%13826.29%
20> minutes13822.26%11221.33%
Totals620525

The Squeaker Pack is larger than the other 5 days and increased in size in 2015. In 2014 it was 30.48%. This year it was 31.05%.

And for those of you who like to pore* over the margin breakdowns by age group (though I don't think the breakdown within age groups matters because if there are 1000 runners in the M80+ with margin of 5 min+, if you are in M18-34 you'll be displaced if your margin is lower. There's no "quota" for age groups):

AGYear< 1 min1 - 2 min2 - 3 min3 - 4 min4 - 5 min5 - 10 min10 - 20 min20 > min
F18-34CMH20151.9%7.8%5.8%6.8%3.9%25.2%25.2%23.3%
F18-34CMH20144.9%2.5%3.3%5.7%13.9%20.5%24.6%24.6%
F35-39CMH20147.1%9.5%4.8%4.8%7.1%33.3%28.6%4.8%
F35-39CMH20159.7%9.7%0.0%9.7%6.5%9.7%32.3%22.6%
F40-44CMH201510.8%13.5%8.1%8.1%5.4%21.6%18.9%13.5%
F40-44CMH20143.2%3.2%3.2%0.0%12.9%16.1%25.8%35.5%
F45-49CMH20150.0%0.0%5.3%0.0%0.0%36.8%36.8%21.1%
F45-49CMH20146.7%6.7%3.3%6.7%6.7%23.3%26.7%20.0%
F50-54CMH20150.0%17.4%4.3%8.7%8.7%21.7%17.4%21.7%
F50-54CMH20145.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%31.6%10.5%31.6%
F55-59CMH20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%7.1%28.6%35.7%28.6%
F55-59CMH201411.1%0.0%22.2%0.0%0.0%22.2%11.1%33.3%
F60-64CMH20150.0%0.0%16.7%0.0%33.3%16.7%16.7%16.7%
F60-64CMH201416.7%0.0%0.0%16.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%66.7%
F65-69CMH20140.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
F65-69CMH20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%50.0%
M18-34CMH20155.0%13.0%9.0%3.0%5.0%26.0%23.0%16.0%
M18-34CMH20147.1%7.1%6.3%7.1%4.7%18.1%29.1%20.5%
M35-39CMH20158.6%2.9%8.6%8.6%5.7%11.4%34.3%20.0%
M35-39CMH20142.6%10.3%5.1%7.7%5.1%15.4%35.9%17.9%
M40-44CMH20148.9%11.1%4.4%6.7%2.2%24.4%22.2%20.0%
M40-44CMH201511.1%16.7%5.6%5.6%2.8%16.7%30.6%11.1%
M45-49CMH201511.6%4.7%7.0%2.3%2.3%11.6%39.5%20.9%
M45-49CMH201411.7%11.7%8.3%5.0%0.0%16.7%28.3%18.3%
M50-54CMH20153.2%3.2%12.9%9.7%0.0%19.4%25.8%25.8%
M50-54CMH20142.1%6.3%6.3%8.3%0.0%35.4%25.0%16.7%
M55-59CMH201411.1%11.1%11.1%5.6%5.6%22.2%5.6%27.8%
M55-59CMH201516.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%0.0%24.0%12.0%36.0%
M60-64CMH20150.0%0.0%7.1%14.3%0.0%21.4%21.4%35.7%
M60-64CMH20140.0%0.0%5.9%0.0%0.0%11.8%35.3%47.1%
M65-59CMH20140.0%0.0%0.0%20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%20.0%
M65-59CMH20150.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%
M70-74CMH20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
M70-74CMH20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Next week I'll compile the latest cutoff prediction. I am expecting it to drop a bit given the lower qualification numbers from this race.

Have a great weekend and Happy Halloween!

* apparently the word "pore" is an infrequently (aside from the common phrase "pore over") used verb that means to meditate deeply. I thought that was an interesting little factoid!