Monday, December 7, 2015

Not Entirely Without Warning: The Latest Prediction

I really didn't think that we would see too many swings in the data after 8 feeders, one of them being Chicago with 37,000 finishers. Then again, the size of the Marine Corps Marathon is nothing to sneeze at 23,000 so I suppose we can expect that unless the race analysis shows it's following the same trends, roughly, as previous races, we're going to see considerable movement of the cutoff calculation.

The MCM analysis showed that 2015 finishers were way up over 2014, which translated to more qualifiers than last year. And as we know (or if you don't know, I suppose), the 2016 cutoff was the biggest ever at 2:28. It follows that I expected the cutoff prediction to go up.

Qualifier age group data:

AG2014 Qualifiers2014 AG Total% Qualifiers2015 Qualifiers2015 AG Total% Qualifiers
F18-341589196458.09%1469183917.99%
F35-3969971139.83%68272169.45%
F40-4463964219.95%62363149.87%
F45-49620424214.62%571452112.63%
F50-54325269312.07%374290012.90%
F55-59184137613.37%158135811.63%
F60-648654215.87%8059213.51%
F65-692818515.14%3320616.02%
F70-7465111.76%3565.36%
F75-790130.00%1911.11%
F80+000.00%010.00%
M18-341384176427.84%1202162177.41%
M35-3964283327.71%64180697.94%
M40-4471683448.58%66081368.11%
M45-49824662212.44%767673211.39%
M50-54661501813.17%582509411.43%
M55-59414316413.08%394317012.43%
M60-64253158915.92%244162415.02%
M65-6911465817.33%10069714.35%
M70-743522415.63%2923712.24%
M75-795598.47%85514.55%
M80+090.00%21711.76%
Totals9224939429.82%8623916129.41%

Number of qualifiers is still down 6.52% over 2014. Definitely means that the current cutoff prediction is lower than 2:28. For that, we can all breath a (temporary) sigh of relief.

The margin data:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute5816.30%4935.72%
1-2 minutes5726.20%5246.08%
2-3 minutes5245.68%4555.28%
3-4 minutes4665.05%4595.32%
4-5 minutes4454.82%3634.21%
5-10 minutes192820.90%180520.93%
10-20 minutes243126.36%232626.97%
20> minutes227724.69%219825.49%
Totals92248623

Squeaker Pack in 2015: 26.60%
Squeaker Pack in 2014: 28.06%

This data didn't change much since the last prediction data compilation and analysis. Still seeing more qualifiers in 2015/2016 with more than 5 minutes of margin.

Finally the cutoff calculation.

The number of qualifiers achieving 147 seconds or better for the 2016 Boston Marathon was 7824.

Sorting the 2017 Boston Marathon Qualifiers by margin in seconds descending, the 7824th runner has a margin of...

95 seconds or 1:35

I have to say, that took me a bit by surprise. Almost 20 seconds up. Now, the next race on deck for me to compile is NYCM and I've heard varying accounts of folks saying it was hot, etc. Possibly, 2014 results were better than 2015. It's also a big race (the biggest, in fact, as far as I'm aware). It could sway things back down or up depending on what the data looks like year over year.

Either way, we're still not looking at 2:28, though 95 seconds is certainly higher than I was thinking we would be at this point.


Wednesday, December 2, 2015

MCM Marathon 2015: Fairly Big Spike in Participation

Looking back at last year's comparison, 2014 had a drop in qualification numbers. But in 2015, MCM has bucked the trend we've seen with the feeders - they have 17.8% more finishers! I wonder if more people signed up? Doesn't this race have a lottery?

Boy, am I itching now to see how this affects the cutoff (though, I think we can safely assume, it's going to go up).

It's also been in recent news with Runners' World and Let's Run:
http://www.runnersworld.com/races/marine-corps-marathon-issues-lifetime-ban-to-runner

(Note that I find these stories just fascinating! Though I hear this guy has fessed up and apologized unlike some other folks I've heard about in the past, which kudos to him.)

The age group qualifier data:

AG Group2014 Qualifiers2014 AG TotalPercentage2015 Qualifiers2015 AG TotalPercentage
F18-3412935793.60%13739833.44%
F35-393214022.28%5418052.99%
F40-446014314.19%6317593.58%
F45-49699607.19%6213144.72%
F50-54296704.33%408574.67%
F55-59123293.65%224335.08%
F60-64121239.76%101636.13%
F65-694498.16%2553.64%
F70-741137.69%0180.00%
F75-79020.00%010.00%
F80+000.00%000.00%
M18-349634612.77%10336592.81%
M35-394518112.48%5720492.78%
M40-445018542.70%4421472.05%
M45-495915253.87%7619014.00%
M50-544411223.92%6314384.38%
M55-59326984.58%477975.90%
M60-64213665.74%294286.78%
M65-69161669.64%192248.48%
M70-742484.17%4675.97%
M75-790120.00%0130.00%
M80+010.00%030.00%
Totals713196223.63%832231143.60%

Qualification rate is just slightly down, but look at the total qualifiers. It's up 16.7% year over year!

Wow.

The qualifier margin data:

Margin2014Percentage2015Percentage
<1 minute567.85%586.97%
1-2 minutes486.73%688.17%
2-3 minutes415.75%536.37%
3-4 minutes375.19%455.41%
4-5 minutes405.61%364.33%
5-10 minutes15822.16%19022.84%
10-20 minutes21129.59%21726.08%
20> minutes12217.11%16519.83%
Totals713832

Squeaker Pack is slightly larger in 2015 at 31.25% versus 31.14% in 2014... so another bucking of the trend for MCM - more folks with less than 5 minutes. This also may have an impact on the cutoff calculation (just looking at the 0-2 minutes, there are 4% more qualifiers in this range than in 2014).

Bonus margin data by age group:

AGYear< 1 min1 - 2 min2 - 3 min3 - 4 min4 - 5 min5 - 10 min10 - 20 min20 > min
F18-34MCM201410.1%7.0%3.9%10.9%5.4%19.4%27.9%15.5%
F18-34MCM20156.6%6.6%5.8%5.8%3.6%24.8%25.5%21.2%
F35-39MCM201412.5%9.4%9.4%6.3%3.1%25.0%18.8%15.6%
F35-39MCM201513.0%0.0%1.9%3.7%0.0%33.3%27.8%20.4%
F40-44MCM201411.7%8.3%13.3%5.0%8.3%13.3%25.0%15.0%
F40-44MCM20154.8%7.9%9.5%3.2%6.3%28.6%27.0%12.7%
F45-49MCM20144.3%8.7%4.3%5.8%4.3%34.8%27.5%10.1%
F45-49MCM20158.1%16.1%8.1%4.8%4.8%19.4%21.0%17.7%
F50-54MCM20143.4%10.3%3.4%3.4%3.4%31.0%34.5%10.3%
F50-54MCM20157.5%5.0%7.5%7.5%7.5%17.5%27.5%20.0%
F55-59MCM20140.0%0.0%25.0%8.3%0.0%16.7%41.7%8.3%
F55-59MCM20154.5%9.1%9.1%9.1%9.1%18.2%9.1%31.8%
F60-64MCM20148.3%8.3%0.0%16.7%8.3%25.0%8.3%25.0%
F60-64MCM20150.0%10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.0%50.0%30.0%
F65-69MCM20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%75.0%
F65-69MCM20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%50.0%
F70-74MCM20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
F70-74MCM20150.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
M18-34MCM20146.3%5.2%8.3%3.1%1.0%22.9%30.2%22.9%
M18-34MCM20154.9%9.7%8.7%4.9%2.9%23.3%22.3%23.3%
M35-39MCM201411.1%4.4%6.7%2.2%8.9%20.0%33.3%13.3%
M35-39MCM20151.8%10.5%7.0%5.3%5.3%22.8%31.6%15.8%
M40-44MCM201410.0%6.0%0.0%2.0%6.0%24.0%38.0%14.0%
M40-44MCM20156.8%2.3%4.5%6.8%4.5%25.0%31.8%18.2%
M45-49MCM20146.8%3.4%1.7%3.4%11.9%22.0%35.6%15.3%
M45-49MCM201514.5%13.2%6.6%7.9%3.9%14.5%22.4%17.1%
M50-54MCM20149.1%13.6%4.5%4.5%9.1%15.9%29.5%13.6%
M50-54MCM20157.9%6.3%3.2%0.0%7.9%28.6%28.6%17.5%
M55-59MCM20143.1%0.0%12.5%0.0%6.3%18.8%37.5%21.9%
M55-59MCM20154.3%12.8%6.4%8.5%4.3%17.0%23.4%23.4%
M60-64MCM20140.0%9.5%0.0%4.8%0.0%33.3%23.8%28.6%
M60-64MCM20156.9%0.0%6.9%10.3%0.0%20.7%37.9%17.2%
M65-69MCM201412.5%6.3%0.0%0.0%6.3%12.5%25.0%37.5%
M65-69MCM20155.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%21.1%31.6%21.1%
M70-74MCM20140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%50.0%
M70-74MCM20150.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%50.0%

I hope to get the cutoff prediction post done this week now that I've automated much of the data output into CSVs that I can import into spreadsheets.

The big question is just how much upward pressure will MCM apply to the cutoff.